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A single best idea here is the single best idea. Today is one of the most extraordinary groupings of news, cacophony of news that I have seen in umpteen decades. I can't even describe the multiple big stories that we're looking at. I worry about the subsome stories that we're not talking about that maybe we should be looking at. But the newsflow absolutely overwhelming. Our team doing everything they can to try to keep up with the news. Some
very good work today on the war. Susan Maloney was just brilliant out of Foreign Affairs magazine, and all their work at Brookings is well pick up on as well. Sema Shaw joined from principal asset manager. She was really quite good in the global economy. But your Sema Shaw and the choice set for central banks.
They're frozen. I mean, this isn't far too early for any central bank to try and react to what's happening with the conflict, partly because we don't know what's going to happen on a day to day basis, but they do need to still see what is the impact to inflation expectations. You are going to see these divergents building out across the Atlantic with the You know, we expect the FED to cut rates at least once later this year. We delayed the rate cut through to the end of
the year. But in Europe their focused possibility to focus on inflation expectations is that much stronger. So we are anticipately a couple of rate heights from the ECB and certainly potentially from the Bank of England as well, but right now it is too early for these central banks to be responding.
Shaw from London with principal asset manager. She was really quite good on how different regions are affected by what we're seeing right now, which is one fifteen, one sixteen and one seventeen Brent crude. As I tape this, it's one sixteen eighty. But wait for a cup of Senca and we'll get a different price. Michael Ball of Bloomberg Markets has made an immense splash worldwide. He's being picked up by all sorts of news services for his acute
analysis any number of topics today with Michael Ball. But he started out with not the MAG seven, but maybe it's called the MAG fifty.
And like as I walked out, I told you guys like Blue Energy and Seagate coming out of the gates this morning real strong. And we know from ASML, from basically TSMC that you know we should expect good thing from the hyper scales. We're not yet near the peak. We're looking third fourth quarter maybe for some of these capecks numbers to finally start coming down. They're not coming
down yet. What we're just looking for right now, I guess, is the trickle of smaller data points from Asia moving into Europe and eventually hitting the rest of the world. And that's where we got to start thinking about that. This AI capex isn't enough to offset the real economic damage being done from the short of not only oil, but all these other products, fertilizers, you name it.
It is an incredible set of dynamics. Each conversation we're having, I hope adds a richness to your questions on my head spending just as much as yours is over the statics and the dynamics of economics, finance, investment, and international relations on podcasts or at Spotify, at Apple on YouTube podcasts its single best idea