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The single best idea and the single best idea coming out of this Friday into the weekend is really pay attention to what smart people are writing. It takes some time to write those essays. They don't just happen overnight. Trust me, they're not using chat GPT. And the answer is, what I'll be doing this weekend is thinking about our conversations that we had, but also looking at essays in
real time. Late last night, Adam Posen of Foreign Affairs Magazine and the Peterson Institute published a short, brilliant piece on trade, like you know, like Paul Krugman would do, urs Glenn Hubbard would do. Forget about the politics of it, Republicans, Democrats, Just what do we know about trade? And I really urge you to listen for that within our conversations. An exhausting day, but just exhilarating with the quality of the guests we had. Really tried to stay on the markets.
At Bank of America, she invented their quantitative ESG analysis. She is their US equity strategist with a huge global reach. Savita's Supermanian on the moment.
If you look back on what happened in prior periods of protectionism, prior periods of stagflation, whatever we're heading into. Value stocks outperformed treasury bonds by a massive margin. The last thing you want to be stuck in during a stagflationary environment is long duration bonds. They have no options, whereas stocks, to me, are the best place to be. In an environment where you need those options, companies can extend or shorten their duration. We saw this with Meta
and Google in twenty twenty three. They both initiated dividends and transition from being just pure growth to value. I think this is a really interesting time to think about value equities. Companies that are returning capital, like utilities, even metals and mining, even you know energy companies that were the dividends or sacro SANCD. I think those are areas that you really want to think about.
Savina Supermanian. Now it's time for clinic. I want to get this in before we get the Jordan Rochester. It's just as simple as this. The financial media, out of convenience, like think Bobby exel ro Out on billions, we conveniently quote fixed income dynamics off of yield and is the wonderful Liz Goldenberg. She once cut me over my left eye. Here she threw a manalo blonic shoe at me and the heel hit me just above the eye. Had two
stitches from Liz Goldenberg. She was so angry at me because in times of crisis, yield doesn't matter, and what matters is price. And in the old days, like in my ute, we quoted yield and price together and then that went away and the financialization in the last thirty years or so. I can't emphasize enough. When you see yield up, what people in bow ties are really saying is price down. And that's where we are on this Friday, and I have no idea where we'll be on Monday.
If you think you do, you know, just good luck with that. The answer is every time somebody quotes yield, think price down, because that's really what's going on here. Whether you're Jamie Diamond or somebody with a Christmas Club account at JP Morgan. Jordan Rochester does not have a Christmas Club account at a big bank. He's at Missouo, hardwired into the flows around the world, particularly from China and his Japan and London. Jordan Rochester on flows.
Well, my key can ERNs earlier this week was about dollar funding because the whole world was facing such higher tariff rates. For US, what you're going to see is that exporters to the US were no longer going to receive their dollar receipts, and then dollar funding would become an issue. The only good news that I can give you is that you just had a record Q one imports in America and so a lot of these exporters around the world will be sitting on a dollar cash
pile that's a little bit more healthier than usual. Now we've had this ninety day reprieve at ten percent tarif rates. I do see the flows of commerce still taking place between Europe and the rest, but the problems with China with these extreme tariffs that we have. We've got one
hundred and forty five percent tarifrate on China. It's the largest, one of the largest trading partners in the world with the US, and so you're going to see a dollar quizy issue at some point unless we have a climbed down.
Jordan Rochester of Mazoo and again their team is outstanding, dominant constant, Stephen Roshudo and Jordan Rochester. Look for their published, Look for their work, I should say published this weekend. You'll see some of those headlines out on the Bloomberg. I think we'll leave it at that. What I know is I got a euro at one fourteen. I think I just had a one fifty two one excuse me, four p fifty two four point fifty three ten year yield. Let me know if you know. We're going to be
on Monday. Right now, we're on YouTube, podcasts and of course all of the work we do. Thank you for an exhausting week and for your attention to single best idea.