Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single, best idea. We're on a YouTube podcast, Apple podcasts. It's growing. You know, we're doing a lot of other stuff as well. YouTube is front and center. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube where we've bundled everything together Joe Weisenthal, Tracy Laway, David Gera, and others. But subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and
out there. I'm getting comfortable with YouTube podcasts. I really like the way they lay it out is about conversation. Today was extraordinary conversation. We could do a half an hour, forty five minute single best idea. We're not going to do that. Let's start off at seven am. Robert Stowball was legendary in my ute, like literally the house would stop when mister Stovall came on. His son, Sam Stoveall, has carried the torch forward with wonderful work. It's CFRA.
They were acclaimed for three star, four star, five star stocks and the duration, the persistency of this bull market, Sam Stovall CFRA.
Well, it's done exceptionally well, up more than fifty percent in the first two years, and the third year of bull market is actually pretty challenging. Of all eleven bull markets that celebrated their second birthday, the average twelve month gain in the third year was two point two percent, and that's because three of those eleven slipped into new
bear markets before the year was out. Two more posted declines, though not enough to be tagged as new bear markets, three more posted gains of six percent or lower, and only twice did we have or three times did we have double digit advances. So I would tend to say the odds favor a challenging third year.
Sam stoveall there was CFIA. We heard some other themes as well. Liz Ane Saunders with a little bit of that nervousness out there, but we talked a lot about all time highs with our people today. Amy was Silverman. It was just absolutely on fire over the derivative overlay, the signals from the four cross moments, if you will, into the equity market, to show you the process of surveillance. We're booking twenty four to seven and we book off
the news. We booked people days ahead, sometimes weeks ahead, but we had the tariff news here and we just efforted out of Dartmouth College, the giant on free ter a. Douglas Irwin out of Columbia with Jaggnesh Bugwadi years ago wrote a definitive book pushing thirty years ago called Against the Tide. It was so good then, it's still good now. I put it on Twitter today. Can't say enough about
Against the Tide. Late in our conversation with Professor Irwin, I talked about Robert Littheiser, widely attributed with Trump trade practices and Lightheiser, in the beginning of his book is adamant about the collapse of his Northeastern Ohio childhood. Here is Douglas Irwin, with the respect for Northeastern Ohio and Robert Leithheiser.
I guess I would say two things. First of all, Ohio is not the US economy written large. The South has attracted a lot of manufacturing precisely because of the high tax, anti business attitudes of the rust belt states, and they've got to rethink how they compete and how they position themselves the other US states, not via a relative to the rest of the world as well. And second of all, the tariffs, which he's very much in
favor of, are a very blunt instrument. They might help out certain steel producers in Ohio, but they have negative effects on steel manufacturers or manufacturers that use steal components elsewhere in the country, so it doesn't help out manufacturing overall.
There's always a trade offer. You're going to hurt some and help others, and you've got to be aware that, yes, you might want to help out those Ohio steel workers, but you have to worry about auto workers elsewhere too when their cost go up when you put on steel tariffs.
Doug Irwin of Dartmouth, what a program up there with David Blanchflower, the Tuck School and all just really good economics into the holiday week tomorrow, tons of economic data. We'll be doing that at seven am into the important
eight to thirty data as well. On your commute across the nation or new distribution from ninety nine to one FM, Bloomberg eleven three to zero in New York, ninety nine one FM, I should say, in Washington, up to ninety two nine FM in Boston, and on Apple car Play worldwide, Android Auto worldwide and Serious XM, and of course on YouTube subscribe to Bloomberg Podcast. This is single best idea.
The LAS