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Single best idea, a great set of conversations today, just wonderful, wonderful guests here getting towards I guess an end to a government shutdown. Joe Matthew driving that beast into the afternoon and no doubt into the evening. Major shout out Nathan Dean with terrific perspective in Washington from Bloomberg Government assisting mightily. This morning, we did a lot on bonds. It was sort of a bond day, fixed income day
at Bloomberg Surveillance. Andrew Sizarowski at Eaton Vance Morgan Stanley was absolutely brilliant on the uniqueness of this market with decades of experience. Russell Brownbeck at Blackrock followed on and really put in perspective where we are in clipping coupons here.
Rus a very large catalyst this coming year is going to be as that policy rate comes down. We think the feder will deliver what's priced into markets, which is down close to neutral by the third or fourth quarter of next year. And then you start to think about those trillions of dollars sitting in cash today, and cash has been a very high sharp ratio allocation heretofore for
the last six or eight quarters. I think that money will begin to migrate into some longer tenors as some of those investors look to lock in this opportunity set. And we don't see a lot of overall duration beta move in this coming year. So again it's going to be about harvesting that income as a window.
Into the fixed income world with Russ Brownback just can't say enough about the acuity here of some of our fixed income guests at Joe Eisenthal and Tracy Alloway in to celebrate ten years of Odd Lots. Today we're talking about windows into Global Wall Street for people that aren't Global Wall Street. Let me attempt that right now. Jay Hatfield was in today with infrastructure assets, and he acclaimed from seven thousand standard and pores five hundred out to
seventy seven hundred standard and pores five hundred. That's a DOWO equivalent of over fifty three thousand. He's looking out there somewhere to go from forty eight thousand to fifty three thousand on the Dow Jones industrial average, just for cocktail conversation. So what do you do with that? The word the pros use is extrapolation. Let me explain how you do it. On the Bloomberg terminal. You take a given series the Dow. You look at a given trend
that you have. I took the trend from the autumn of twenty twenty two, which I call the Yardenni and Caumpora Lowe. You got a bullmark, a trend up into the right. You take that and you extrapolate that out, and you can do all this on the Bloomberg terminal. Then you take from here and now Jay Hatfield's call of seventy seven on the SPX is that an outrageous extrapolation? Is that responsible? And what's amazing is out twelve months, if we were to get to SPX seventy seven hundred,
it's beneath that regression extrapolation. It is a responsible call. And hearkens back to the fundamental analysis of someone like ed Yard Denny or Brian Belski at Humanist John John Stolfus with us at Oppenheimer the other day on this bull market, Jay Hatfield, we.
Are very constructive, a little bit more next year than this year. We have a seven thousand target this year. You notice we kind of faded off that when we got to sixty nine to forty. And we have drawn a distinction because we've been asked to probably one hundred times whether we're in a tech bubble, and we say no, we're definitely not. But that doesn't mean we're not pretty fully valued. On TI We see the maggate is right around fair value except for Tussel, which is massively overvalued.
And so you're seeing that kind of behavior in the market where kind of every other day people fade the tech rally and we get a rotation and like today, we're actually rallying in tech, some more churning than straight up. But we have a seventy seven hundred target for next year.
Absolutely unbelievable. I don't know anyone out there with a published seventy seven hundred target. And again, the extrapolation of that call by j Hatfield is beneath the trend extrapolation back to October of twenty twenty two. It's amazing what the Bloomberg terminal can do on your podcast on Apple and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea