Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth - podcast episode cover

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth

Apr 28, 20255 min
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Episode description

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Robert Kaplan & Stephanie Roth.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. The single best idea on a Monday. We'll keep it short. It's incredibly busy week. We have all the major earnings, Apple, all the rest is you know, we're not part of it. Umpteen trillion dollars will report this week and give no guidance forward given all the insertin around. We have an early jobs report on Friday, and then beginning Friday we go to the Miami Grand Prix. The F one Grand Prix comes back from the other side of the world and goes

to Miami. So it'll be just an interesting time plus all the politics. Mister Bess and I believe in a press conference tomorrow he certainly moved markets today and CNBC and Fox and you know we watch that observed it to see the markets go from red to green. At least for now, I should say they went from read to green. Robert Kamplin with us. He is the vice chairman of Goldman Sachs is the former president of a

Dallas Fed. Someone that beautifully links the business world to the economics world, the FED world, and also back to the heritage of the University of Kansas. Robert Kamplin on Washington and DOGE.

Speaker 2

The nub of the issue right now is it's unclear how much costs savings we're getting out of DOGE okay, And I think that's part of this discussion, and I think they're still a little bit wetted that we're going to get the offset. We're going to get revenue from tariffs, and that'll help us in the de leveraging. They'll help

us justify bigger tax cut. And I think all the studies I've looked at have shown that every dollar of tariff revenue you get, you give it back a portion of it in terms of lower growth and damage groups. But that's the key to I think why they're clinging to these tariff tariffs at higher levels, not at zero, and I think they may be better served letting go a little bit on that concept.

Speaker 1

And a touch on there. I'm really focused on the growth changes, the growth dynamics that we see off of this moment of a tariff trade or special Shout out to David Gura up at AUTO. I had a lot of fun with it, but you know, I did some research on a gut and though I believe it is across the river from Ottawa, seventy one percent French speaking is a population and really only only I believe eleven or twelve percent English speaking is we forget about the

bilingual nature of Canada and all of that heritage. We'll have coverage of that tomorrow. And again, what an out end of April we're into. May second, excuse me gasping over Stephanie Ross's number for the jobs report. We were at two hundred something last time. The survey is one hundred and thirty thousand non firm payrolls, and Stephanie Roth at Wolf Research is at ninety thousand, nine zero this Friday. Let's listen.

Speaker 3

The thing that we haven't really talked about yet when it comes to labor market is we also have a significant reduction. From an iggration perspective, there's going to be conflicting forces on the unemployment rate where you have the slowdown in the economy putting upward pressure on the unemployment rate, yet a lot of jobs apply reducing because of immigration

putting downward pressure. So that's why the unemployment rate is not going to rise as much in our forecast versus what it would otherwise be the case.

Speaker 1

Stephanie Wroth there on the dynamics, really sophisticated dynamics of how Michael McKee and others come up with the unemployment rate given reduced immigration and increasing actually increasing joblessness as well. We're on your commute across the nation. Good morning, ninety nine one FM in Washington, ninety two nine FM in Boston, and Bloomberg eleven three to zero, and around the world. Good morning on YouTube as well. We're out on YouTube podcasts. This is the single best idea

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