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The single best idea and going back over two decades, today was one of the most extraordinary shows we've ever done. I really want to say we try to do a different conversation on technology. We are able to execute that today. Mark lehmannan from San Francisco definitive with Citizens JMP decades of work in the society of San Francisco in Silicon Valley and what they're doing. Perfect. To have him in
today with Facebook Meta and with Microsoft as well. Then to have our Ana Agarana and men Deep Singh with this was just brilliant. Aul Trump by two vice chairman with US today. Lal Brainer will get to in a moment at Harvard, but here with Columbia Universe in PIMCO is a former vice chairman of the FED. Richard Clarita on when you cut rates, do you establish a trend or can you do a one off?
If you go back to when Tom, you and I start our careers in the eighties with Vulgar, Vulgar would never give you an indication of where rates were going to be in years. It was one meeting at a time and for the first half of Green span. It was one meeting then at a time. This is really important, folks. Well, two things happened. The academic literature to which I contributed said there can be benefits to providing guidance on their rate path, and so I think policymakers fall in love
with that idea. They doubled down on it when we hit the zero lower bound, and it made sense to do that. But one of the points I make in the paper that you nicely plugged, Tom, is that monetary policy is not immune from the laws of economics. There are benefits and costs to decisions, and there are benefits in cost and diminishing. And I think you raise a
very good point. We could be in a different world if basically the FED and other central banks said, you know, there's a lot of uncertain we're gonna do one meeting at a time.
Bottle it. I can't say enough about that answer on this. I feel very strongly about this, folks. They are completely awetted to the belief. And in physics, if you will, an inertial force of starting a trend, either rates higher or rates lower doesn't matter, And maybe the efficacy of a one off right now would be an interesting idea for people like Lyle Brainerd and Richard Claire to the others to study at least or ponder as well Richard Clare to their PIMCO. The paper he mentioned is just
out from the National Bureau of Economic Research NBER. I'll try to get that this weekend out on Twitter and linked in. Low Brainerd with the same exquisite economics as Clarida, but different She's at Harvard out of Wesleyan. She had an honorary degree from Wesleyan at their commencement in May. Lyle Brainerd and here on Trump vessent economics.
I would say what is clear to me, because I have been listening carefully to the Treasury Secretary and the President, is that they see tariffs as a way of raising revenues, and they have a very aggressive revenue target for tariffs. They want to raise hundreds of billions three hundred billion dollars a year in tariff revenues, which is an order
of magnitude larger than what we have seen recently. And that means that tariff rates have to be at those high smooth Hawley levels with the attendant potential effects on the labor market. And we've already seen substantial slowing in the second quarter in terms of underlying private domestic final demand. Consumers look like they are feeling a little bit cautious. We can see that even in today's personal consumption expenditures data,
which really was very modest growth. So yes, I do believe there's some risk that by trying to achieve those very aggressive tariff revenue goals, they really are putting a big dampener on what could be a very dynamic and exciting period in American growth.
The dynamic and exciting period is maybe the path to Jackson Hall, Lisa Branwinson. I will be out there for the festivities. Low brainerd is it? Harvard? I can't emphasize enough the work that's being done right now on tariffs. Whatever your politics, whatever the pro Trump anti prompt is that the other thing, this is an absolutely unique time for any of us living today. On our podcast on Apple Music, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts, this is a single best idea
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