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Single best Idea. What are we doing here? We're trying to do a short podcast. Everybody's lined up like with The Big Take David Gura's Wonderment, but the Big Take, you know, twenty minutes, twenty five minutes, thirty minutes. We're trying to do it quick, three four five minute Single best idea. Where we do too. We should have been double best idea or single best ideas. Forget about it. It's single best idea. And it's just two vignettes from the wonderful set of guests we have. We always have
too many to choose from. Rebecca Patterson stop by today to start us off strong on a fed week number of different teams. She walked in and said, look, I look strong dollar. I looked resilient dollar. But Rebecca Patterson said, really, the surprise out there could be not only resilient inflation or even elevated inflation, but more than that.
Think about risks in the next year. And one risk that I think is on people's radar screens but maybe not enough, is a resurgence of inflation. And one area I think you want to watch is food inflation. US farmers are struggling right now. They can't get enough workers, and seventy percent of workers in US farming are immigrants, about half of those are illegal immigrants. If you reduce the workers, you can't get the crops out of the ground.
Prices go up, profits go down. In addition to that, though, the tariffs are a big hit on US farmers. In twenty eighteen nineteen, those that year period alone, they lost twenty seven billion dollars in export revenue. Now, last time Trump failed them out, they got over eighty billion dollars in government subsidies. This time, they don't have as much free money flowing to hand out. So why do avocados come in the mix? Because percent of American avocados come
from Mexico. And if we don't have people to get those avocados out of the ground here in California, and the tariffs on Mexico are causing some retaliation, avocados are going to become a luxury good.
And Lisa Matteo weighed in on the use of avocado oil. I learned more about avocados today than I have in ages. They're very strong and very rich, and mac needs you. I didn't know that, you know, thank you Rebecca Patterson on avocados and on inflation as well. People don't say go to cash, get out of the market. Pros, including at the Hong Kong Shanghai Banking Corporation, say okay, you
got to participate, get over it. Max Kuttner in London has been brilliant for HSBC and saying participate in the market. He reaffirms that and even looks at a europe a Germany flat on their back.
I think Europe, you know, we shouldn't throw in completely the tile on that, particularly only equity the credit space.
Let's remember when you look at your high yield, you're a highield nowadays is only six percent triple c's. We've had two the fault waves already in the last four years. So people trying to play politics, for example in eurocredit, that doesn't work. You look at Euro's in equities. Look at German equities.
You were just saying VW Well, German equities are up more than twenty percent. Yeah, sure enough, they've been training the SMP. That's not really a year where you'd be like, oh my god, everything is in the doldrums.
Absolutely not. So we've got to remember that when we buy German equities, you're not buying the politics. You're not just buying the China baskets. What you're buying right now is.
The SAPs, the Infinians, the Ryan Mittel, Siemens energy. So you're buying a bit of defense, you buy the AI story, you're buying into tech. That's really what's driving German small caps right here. They doesn't really have a lot to do with the German elections.
I think Max Kutner enthusiastic there on finding value in your proposal team, Oliver Crook and others in Europe watching the important political developments in Germany. It's a FED week on Wednesday. Course we'll do the FED show. Really looking forward to that. Presume Ray cut yawn. Well, last time it wasn't a y on. It was actually really really interesting. I think we'll see more of the same there this week. Across your commute across the nation, I should say an
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