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Single best idea on an Apple podcast it's a six minute extravaganza, sometimes five, sometimes seven minutes. Today it could be fifteen minutes. We'd bore you to death, but we thank you for choosing a single best idea where we really focus on two voices. We had such a strong morning that we're gonna give you a bonus today. Michael Nathanson will come along here with piercing comments on the Olympics coming up. We're making jokes about it, but it's
not funny. There's billions of dollars involved. You're going to just be stunned at what Nathanson says. First, so on CPI and how the Federal Reserve system will react to it. A former governor of the Fed, Randall Krasner, he is with at Chicago RAGU Rajin our leading financial economists there's out of Brown University and go Wood, New Jersey, and he's just absolutely definitive on the nuances. The path, an old path is you just make it up as you go.
About thirty years ago, Alan Greenspan codified measured and that you would get on a path and you'd stay on a path in a measured way. Randy Krosner of the Boost School Chicago on green spans measured, I don't.
Think they're going to do the measured pace.
I think there was pretty clear consensus even when I was there, which is now a while ago, that measured pace was not the best way to do things.
And so I think that they will move.
And you can see when they moved in place interest rates up that was not at a measured pace. That was pretty rapid. So I think they're gonna they'll bring interest rates down. I think they'll bring them down somewhat gradually at first, but if they see the libor market really weakening, they'll start to move quickly. That'll be too late to prevent the labor market from softenings substantially.
But they have to weigh the risks.
Of calling all clear too early, getting back into what happened in the late seventies early eighties where they did that and then inflation reignited and they had to raise rates really high, had a really bad recession.
They'd rather wait a little bit, you.
Know, perhaps a little bit too long, to buy some insurance against that upside inflation scenario.
But then they can cut and just have.
A slowdown, maybe a mild recession, but something that'd be much less worse than what they had in the early.
Eighties, maybe a soft land. And there Randy Krassner, the Booth School of Chicago, And of course what does all this mean over the markets, Well, it meant price up, yield down, the real yield. I watch carefully the inflation adjust a ten year yield one measure of that idea, and the real yield really broke below range the range
that I look at. The series I look at had a bottom range of about one point ninety six percent, and we plug ung below that down to one point nine zero with a shock of a negative statistic on one measure of CPI month over month, I think headline CPI and it came back a little bit one point ninety five percent, but we've decisively moved to the tippy edge of the range or even lower in yield. That's one of those ideas of disinflation. And then what it means over to a market that just won't go down
Every afternoon. I watched the market take a bid at two thirty PM, even more of a bid at three point thirty. You look at the character of this bull market. You try to look back at what the pros call an analog, what was this bullmarket? Like Kate Moore of Blackrock.
I don't see a perfect analog right here. And I know everyone wants to pick a period in history and say it looks just like this, and it's a comfort. You know, people like that comfort. But we are in the midst of, I think a massive technological change here with the advent of AI and as companies trying for you out how to adopt AI and figure out the use cases and what the best way to work with this technology is, and I think that's going to lead
to these incredible bifurcation in the market. Companies that have access to the technology have access to amazing data sets and are using it appropriately, and those that don't. You're starting to see that separation in earnings already. And I just don't know that we, or at least in the lifetime I've been in almost five decades, that we've seen this significant of a technological change.
Kate Moore of black Rock. Huge debate there. Michael Darta was really strong today and the idea of nominal GDP is going to come down, and he's looking at some serious recession tendencies within the market. He made very clear this is a central bank fighting the last war. One of the things we follow, and it's a real effort at Paul Sweeney. As the entertainment business, the zaniness we see in streaming, I don't know. I try to cancel
a streamer once every two weeks. I try to camp so someone just as a good habit, and you try to add up what you've got, but you don't know what you're paying. Some of them they're like fifteen dollars a month, but you can get it specially for six dollars ninety five. It's a nuts business and the heart of that is sports will make it. And Michael Nathanson was on today of Moffatt Nathanson There absolutely definitive in entertainment.
They put out a twenty page report on cable TV or cell phones or the entertainment the content that Michael follows, everybody reads. It's hugely influential. And I set them up with a question on the Olympics with NBC coming in at one point two billion dollar large, everything's sold out. It's all great. Da da da da da, And I was thunderstruck at this guy with a lot of experience. Michael Nathanson on the extravaganza in Paris.
I think the Olympic moment has passed us by.
I really do.
I think last time we talked with this previous Olympics part of the problem is you don't know where to find it. You know it's on Peacock and they've spread it all out, and you know, sometimes the games are in real time, so you know you're not in front of the set or for your computer when things are happening.
I don't know.
I think, especially in European time zones, it's not ideal. So I say to you, I'm more embarrassing Olympics and other sports at this point in time.
Stunning from Michael Nathanson. That's single best idea for today. Again. We're out on I was gonna say we're out on Netflix. I'm thinking Nathan Si, No, folks, we're not out on Netflix. I miss book. We're out on YouTube, which I think is going to be bigger than Netflix based on what
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