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Single best idea after one of the most exhausting weeks in decades and decades. I'm not going to bore you with what's happened here. You can do your own look back on how you perceive this week in economics, finance, investment, truly in international relations. One of our stellar guests on this Jobsday Friday just said, simply, it's a revolution of finance in Japan and across Europe, and of course particularly with the leadership of Germany. This after all the uproar
of Ukraine. There was a tweet late in the show this morning from the President of the United States. By the time you listen to the single best idea today, I don't know where we are. What I do know is we had Pria Misery with us with JP Morgan. She was just wonderful synthesizing this all into what price and yield will do. Here is Pria misra on this Jobs Day.
So I know cash feels good because you get that four percent yield. Here's what cash will not do for you is give you any reversification benefit. So that's why we've been seeing inflows into fixed income. But you just have to look at price action, whether it was deep seek Monday or tariff Tuesday. I guess tariff Wednesday, Thursday as well, or today if you get a weaker payroll report and risk acids struggle because you know, the President said little discomfort. I mean, I think some of us
might be feeling a little more than that. But I think they're telling you that their pain point is not here. So you need something that will help you stay in risk assets, fixed income, high quality, fixed income duration. Actually that's what's going to work, because the market's only pricing in a few cuts here right even though the FED is not likely to start to cut rates anytime soon.
Markets forward looking, and if the economy is slowing down, if the uncertainty shock is enough to increase the risk of a recession, the market can price in many mock cuts.
Primusra of JP Morgan. They're working with Bob Michael, of course managing bond portfolios for total return and as she said, a good coupon right now among the worries. Thank you Claudia Sam for her wonderful perspective around the jobs report. We did ask doctor Sam about the beginning ideas of a growth slow down. She pushed very hard against in any way modeling out recession. After her, it was Ellen Zenner of Morgan Stanley with thematic investing there with all
her economics on the consumer. And to Ellen Zenner we talked about well about risk and uncertainty and this idea of is there any certitude to be had in twenty twenty five.
It can be very pervasive if it's sustained now in the twenties and on through say the seventies. Right, certainty we would be reflected in sentiment. But and it told you exactly what businesses and households were going to do. And I'm talking specifically about University of Michigan, the rise of the sentiment surveys in the nineteen fifties onwards. Today, uncertainty impacts sentiment, but it doesn't necessarily tell you what
you're going to do. Right, my husband will tell you that I shop when I feel great, I shop when I feel like help. Okay, But if it is sustained at high levels, it will start to permeate business investment decisions, household spending decisions when people can't plan. And I'm looking at the Trade policy Uncertainty index which has gone through the roof, and it has surpassed the previous record set
in August of twenty nineteen. And that is what you're seeing in these surveys, and businesses are saying, I can't do.
This, Ellen Zentner, on this job's day. I can't say enough about the conversations this week, even with Margaret Brennan of Faceinination and CBS and of course here Face the Nation on Bloomberg Radio in New Washington, New York and Boston here Sunday at two pm. But I just I can't imagine where we will be one week from today and your commute across the nation. It is Bloomberg surveillance and YouTube podcasts at single best idea