Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio, news, single best idea, a longer, single best idea. The greatest point of debate today was Everybody's Business is a fabulous podcast. Subscribe to Everybody's Business. Mac Chafkin and Stacey Vannick Smith. This is nurturing. It's a year old. It's like a hip or younger kind of not lighter that doesn't get it, but just a more aggressive, accessible view of all the mumbo jumbo we talked about. Max and Stacy are killing it. Look to
Everybody's Business. But they were talking and they have this raging debate over how long a podcast should be. There's so much newsflow. This should be a one hour, single best idea. We're going to try to keep it under four minutes today. What a great Jobs Day show, Claudia, Sam will get to thank you so much for joining earlier. First, Neil, I'm much. I'm doing LinkedIn. I'm looking through the thing and this chart screams at me and I know it's
the beverage curve. The beverage curve is William Beverage out of the London School of Economics, like your grandfather's time or your great grandfather's time, I should say, and it's basically the ratio of unemployment, the movement of unemployment versus job openings. It has a lot of information in it, and Neil Dutta says, look, we're in a trend, and the trend is towards a more difficult jobs market. Neil Dudda of RENMEC.
We've more than normalized. I mean, if you go back a couple of years ago to what Christopher Waller was saying, remember that he basically posited that, you know, you could have a sort of tightening monetary policy without much of an increase in unemployment because they're operating along a point in that beverage curve where you would see a big decline in job openings without much of an increase in unemployment.
He was right, but he basically said that when you get to a certain point on job openings, if you see any further decline in sort of excess labor demand in this case brought to you by job openings, that would lead to more outsized increases in the unemployment rate.
Neil done it. They're the one thing I would say here, and I have not read many reports yet. We're doing the show just before this taping. But I think what you're going to see here is a lot of positive construct on the labor economy, And without looking at any of the data, I still think what has changed in America is immigration. And this goes back to Angus Madison
and just immigration and headcount matter within this analysis. And I'm putting a big asterisk by all the stuff because I don't understand you forget about the political debate what President Trump has done from President Biden on immigration and that pass forward as well. So I tell you, folks, I really take the media certitude of this with a real grainness. I love Neil Dudes's skepticism anchoring our broadcast. Claudia Sam She's definitive with the Michigan credibility that she has.
She's changed American economics with the some rule with a wonderful call last year to forget about a recession. She did that quite well. Claudiasm today from sixty thousand feet on how AI folds into our labor economy.
Any of these conversations about hey, how AI is going to reshape the labor market? These are really looking forward, right. We've already seen a pretty remarkable step down in the labor share. This has happened over recent decades, but we're seeing it again this year. And as you mentioned in the third quarter that you know, blockbuster productivity number workers didn't share in that right, the labor shares down as at the lowest level in post World War two history.
And this is before we've really seen any of the you know AI have like a big picture effect on the labor market. So yeah, no, this is a real, real issue.
Claudia Sam there, New Century Advisors. What a great week it really felt, folks, like the first week of the new year. I mean, I can't I think it was yesterday or the day before. Really was like, okay, everybody's back, everybody's in meetings, let's go, let's go. It doesn't start January second or third. It takes, you know, a week or so, and we're there right now. We'll move forward. Look at Joe Matthew balance a power Joe Matthew just dealing with all of the news flow out of Washington.
Just an extraordinary burden there. And we'll be with you next week. I'm Bloomberg Surveillance. We're in a podcast on Apple, on Spotify and YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea,