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Single best idea. It was a sterling day on the show with all sorts of good conversations. I'll be quick this morning. I said this earlier in setting up Nancy Lazarre of Piper Sandler, and that it's a blur for me and Paul. We don't know common are Gohan who was with us forty five minutes ago, Who's going to be with us forty five minutes from now. We have this incredible team including Art Wellow telling us what to do, and side Benson, and they're all just tick by tick
saying Nancy Lazar's next kind of thing. But I remember crystal clear what Nancy Lazar told me ninety days ago about the underinvestment in the private sector in America. She has radically changed tone with this new legislation, which will provide for Reagan like investment in America, but within it already a government slow down.
We may already be in that environment right now. I actually, when I look at the government spending data, I can see some incremental restraint. I think I get booed when I talk about that, but you can see it if you look very closely at the monthly Treasury statement. The federal outlaid data are starting to stall out. You're hearing it from companies, software defense consultants. You are hearing companies say the government's being a little bit more stringy. You're
seeing it in the job data. Federal employment has declined for the past five months. It's going to given what happened yesterday, it's likely to accelerate. Federal employment is likely to continue to decline. So I'm seeing government spending being chipped away. I might almost like a David Stockman moment, which is like, you know, wake up and smell the coffee. The the deficit is way too big. Government spending is
way too big. I think people, some people within the administration understand that, and you are starting to see some incremental restraint, and not this year, but maybe next year the deficit can come in a little bit better than expected.
Nancy was a Piper Sandler. The Stockman moment there, folks, was the back side of the Reagan administration when they had to really confront budget challenges, perhaps like what we have right now. A privilege always to have Douglas Irwin with us of Dartmouth College, his book Against the Tide is the iconic read on American trade. We talked to him about William McKinley and Trump's affection for the president of the late late nineteenth century. Here Douglas Irwin on the moment at hand.
I think the standard responses you sort of have to look through the price effects, but you can't look through the GDP of fact.
Yes, thank you.
So this is really why the said will be in a conunder if we see higher prices and lower growth. You know, on one hand you want a titan to take care of the price impact. On the other hand, you want to loosen to take care of the GDP effect. I think it really depends on what sort of configuration of tariffs we see in August and coming months.
Doug Irwin with US of Dartmouth College. I'd love to see a new effort out from him, but he's been really prolific and very important in this time of tariffs across the nation. On your morning commute, please pay attention Bloomberg Surveillance from seven to ten am Wall Street Time, Good Morning ninety two nine FM in Boston, ninety nine one FM in Washington, and on our podcast on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best I do