Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Marc Champion & Michael Purves - podcast episode cover

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Marc Champion & Michael Purves

Jan 20, 20264 min
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Episode description

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Bloomberg Opinion's Marc Champion & Michael Purves of Tallbacken Capital Advisors.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

A single best idea and the worst idea was basically all of us worked all weekend across the three day We tried to do things here as we all do, but we're all glued to our phones doing the social media, reading the zeitgeist. If you would major shout out William Rhodes's iconic at City Group of Brown University, his Brown University Bill Rhods writing up a wonderful essay in Project Syndicate on the moment at hand for Europe. He is of ninety one years old. We celebrate the Bill Rhodes

published this weekend. Mark Champion published as well. Really can't say enough about his work definitive in Europe with a truly wonderful Transatlantic perspective, Iconic at the Wall Street Journal and now writing for Bloomberg Opinion. Champion on the moment at hand.

Speaker 1

This is going to be incredibly hard for Europe. They all understand they need to hang together. The problem is finding that common denominator that allows them to hang together. And so long as you know, this is what Mattz has been hinting that he's going to be saying to Maccai is that you need to ease off a little bit because you just can't take us all with you. Now.

You know, if there is method to what Trump is doing here, you know one way that you could explain this is to say what he wants, and it's what he said he wants is to divide the EU, in particular on trade. He really cares about trade.

Speaker 2

My champion there and of course will continue to speak to mister Champion and others across all of Bloomberg Opinion. Again, the President speaks tomorrow at the meetings of the World Economic Forum. A good way to start here with the markets and turmoil. Michael Purvis joined us on the move inequities, the moving gold up to forty seven hundred plus as well the bond market move price is lower here Michael Purvis on a unique Tuesday.

Speaker 3

Oh, I think what's really idiotsymnocratic with Japan right now, with the fact that they're thirty year bond is this

you know that yield is a surgeon, right. And it's an interesting contrast because in the United States, for all the time we talk about the Fed and the Chair and inflation and all this interest rate stuff, the reality is that rate volatility in the US has been extraordinarily low, perhaps until last night, and rape volatility overseas is doing in Japan particularly, is doing very interesting things.

Speaker 2

Michael Purvis there on how to interpret all that we see in the market. So here's a little bit of nerd fest on a Tuesday. It's so cold now, I mean, all you can do is go to logarithms. So we all quote yield. And you heard mister Purvis say there yield surged in Japan. So it's yield up and that means in price down. So on the Bloomberg and this

is rarely rarely quoted in the zeitgeist. Are the price of a bond, a note, a bill, And in the case of the ten year or twenty or forty year Japan, we can get a price farther out you go, the bigger the price move for drama. So I bring up the forty year Japan bond forty year in price, not yield in price, and basically it's going ninety to eighty,

just as a general idea. So then I look at the movement the volatility as mister Purvis was just talking about, which is a standard deviation right now that forty year piece is at eighty three. If it goes to eighty two or eighty one and a half, something like that, it's a four standard deviation move that is really really critical to the kind of math that leads to emotion

and the unexpected. In Japan, again, the T function, the trading envelope function modeled out logarithmically is a four standard deviation move. We're really getting here quickly on some of the Japanese debt on podcasts out at Spotify, at Apple Music as well, and YouTube podcasts single best Idea

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