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What an interesting day in the market. It's quiet economic day at retail sales tomorrow. The CPI was yesterday, but it is a shocking two day lift in the markets and even green on the screen here this morning. We'll see how we end up through the day in the stock market. We celebrated last week Rick Atkinson with us the second volume of his American Revolution. That's a book
of the summer. I had to go with two books of the summer because Ken Rogoff is out with Our Dollar, Your Problem, call it my economic book of the summer, hugely focused on the dollar and of course our worries about debt and deficit. Our dollar, your problem, our debt, and your problem here is Ken Rogoff.
If you believe that it's going to stay on the higher side, as I do, you know, debt is very high and it does gradually push up interest rates the whole world, for better for worse is remilitarizing.
Populism.
Deglobalization, which we discussed earlier, also pushes up interest rates. All of these things, I think we could easily see the ten year at that Now I'm talking about the nominal which is now for something like that, we could see it at five five six within a couple of years.
Given how things are going.
There are some very smart people, young economists, who think, Nope, this is an aberration, We're going to go back on that downward ride, and debt is a free lunch.
After all.
That seems to me a very risky thing to bet the farm on.
In the span of your twenty twenty five What you just heard is with that question, one of the great outliers of the year. I would suggest an awful lot of people I talk to anecdotally, our tendency is towards the camp of Ken Rogoff of price down and yield up in a five and a half for even six percent yield. That's an extraordinary statement by Ken Rogoff and is another reason to consider his book Our Dollar Your Problem Again, Professor Rogoff on America.
I think we've hit the peak, and I think you know. I don't.
I'm not an investor, but I would say this is a moment to think about diversification more.
I see Europe with.
Its forced remilitarization, with its ketchup, probably doing outperforming the United States, China.
Not so much. But it's going to break away from the United States.
Thank you for mentioning Western New York as a wasteland, because I actually talk a lot about our joint hometown of Rochester quite a bit in the book.
But I see.
Certainly the dollars staying on top, but less on top.
You mentioned Barry Ikinreen. I mean he wrote and many of us.
Thought twenty years ago that we were headed to a more tripolar world. I think we're back on course to that. We'll lose some of our exceptionalism. It will hurt in national security too. There will be other pathways to do transactions. Our sanctions won't be as effective, our spying won't be as effective, and a number of other things.
I think Americans are going to have to adjust.
But I think we're going to have a bit a crisis of some sort first, because no politician can rate it in until we do that have one kens rugoff.
It's a remarkably slim book. This is not four hundred or eight hundred pages like Rick Atkinson's American Revolution Treatment. This is a blistering two hundred and fifty or so pages. Our dollar, your problem. I won't miss words that you got a kid this summer and they're whining about their board and they need something to read. Throw our dollar, your problem at them, and it is a really scintillating look back over twenty thirty forty years and then forward
to the next America. This is a single best idea. We're right on YouTube podcast and of course commute across the nation and again single best idea.