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Bust Idea on a Monday before an eventful week. Of course Chicago, Amory Horden having trouble getting Chicago. Terrible storms in New York, and I would say hundreds, if not thousands of people in the greater New York, Boston Washington area couldn't get to Chicago. So it's going to be
a really eventful Monday Tuesday to get out there. Chris President Biden speaking with all the emotion to his Democratic Party, and then on we will go and then Jackson Hole after that, Lisa Bramwots and I really looking forward to that. We just had to stand up meeting here at Bloomberg on Jackson Hall. Excited about being with you seven a m. Eastern time on Friday. Is where we're focused on for that, and of course Chairman speech and we'll have all that coverage,
here's no question about that. On bonds price up, yield down as a basic belief, we've seen that JPM Morgan, Bob Michael and Kelsey Barrow have really led the charge of the big banks, saying you will see a bid price up, yield down. Kelsey Barrow on where we are at the end of the summer in bonds.
I mean, I don't think you really need to say that much. I mean, it's really interesting you think about the price action this year, and it's really not been driven by the Fed speak. It's been driven by the data. Right The market has reacted to the data. When the data suggests that there's risk of upside on inflation, the market reduces the amount of rate cuts for this year. When that unwinds, the market prices in more rate cuts. So I actually don't think that Chair Pawell needs to
say that much. That being said, though, I think it should be clear that if you look at simple policy rules, they would suggest and this is regardless of your view on the labor market, simple policy rules would suggest that the appropriate policy rate right now is probably about one hundred basis points lower than it is today. And that's just onfletion coming down alone. Because the Fed, they don't see the Fed Funds rate static for the last thirteen months.
They actually see the real Fed Funds rate has risen one hundred and fifty basis points in the last thirteen months. That's equivalent to five more rate hikes. So policy has been getting incrementally tighter for the last year, and they recognize it. It's time to kind of start to move away from that regime.
Kelsey Barrow of JPTE Morgan. There a lot of discussion on yield and of course how yield folds into the equity markets as well. After what we saw last week, best weeks since Nixon was president. I'm kidding, but what we saw on the stock market last week, it's amazing how the two aur correlated here into the end of August and of course our first look into Q four of twenty twenty four. One of the joys of August is fancy people maybe have time in their schedule to
want under into the building at our world headquarters. Today got Amkunda Legendary at Harvard Business School. We talked about that, his relationship with Clay Christensen, who was hugely helpful to me over the years. He's missed. Professor Christensen's missed each and every day and we lost him way too young an age. Mccundu was in, of course, in his wonderful terse books on presidential politics. He's now lecturing at Yale University among other duties, and he said something that was
like a third rail. To me, I really really agree with this strongly, and that there's this wistful belief that we should take our politics back to the normal of post World War two American polity the fifties and sixties, maybe even into Vietnam in the post Vietnam seventies, where I would say, and this was what Professor mccunda was saying, is that that wasn't normal, and normal was the span of two hundred and fifty years of amony and polarization. Got to Macunda of Yale.
It's actually gone back to the past. Right. What we're seeing is an ideological slant toward the slant to media that is not we sort of say it's it was actually cyclical. It's come back to what it was a newspaper. If you read newspapers from the late nineteenth century early twentieth century, they were just as partisan as Fox News is today. And so what I think what we're seeing is people have to relearn the media consumption reflexes that they had in that era, and you know, many of
them won't. What we sort of see if most people vote the party line, most people who say their independence vote their party line. So the idea that we have all ever existed in this kind of sort of socratic state where we're having rational discussions about politics. I'm not sure that was ever true. I think it's actually the job of our system to kind of figure out ways to make it work without asking people to do something that there's just no historical events they've ever done.
Professor mccundam, he's at Yale University. We begin an eventful we and of course part of it is our study of technology. We are just blown away by the YouTube development over the summer. Can't wait to get the ending August statistics. Got a couple more weeks to go on that. We're out at Apple car play, out at Android Auto, and on YouTube. We're really featuring the coverage in the evening our live show in the evening of the Pacific rim and over to India. Today I featured Bangalore is
the tech center of India. Every day we're featuring somebody different within the YouTube world. Please stay with us on Apple Podcasts. This is single best idea