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The single best idea. We've been doing this a few years and it's now getting the weirdness meter. The surveillance weirdness meter is off the chart. And I don't mean to be inflammatory, and I'm not predicting anything about equities, bonds, currencies, or commodities, but the uncertainty out there, I want to go through this. I think it's so so important. There
are three words in economics, risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity. Let me start with the ambiguity, which is the least important Douglas North, Nobel Prizeman or Washington, University of Saint Louis. Ambiguity means a couple different things, and it's sort of like in microeconomics, where something can happen and it cuts eye their way, and it's ambiguous which way it cuts whatever chart you're looking at or thought you're looking at
frankly algebraic equation. But also ambiguity around institutions, and it's just an uncertain feel because of the ambiguous nature of institutions. And then there's risk, which is a measurable doubt, a measurable probability, a measurable uncertainty, and now everybody's tossing around the word uncertainty. I mean, I'm hearing it about every seven minutes on the show. We got a tip chart we have the show. Every time someone mentions uncertainty, that's
the unmeasurable. And on this Monday, the unmeasurable, particularly off Teriff, wonderment of the Trump administration is absolutely I've never seen it like this. You need to get a view of the American economy. We do that with Kathleen bus Johonsick of Nationwide point.
That there's certainly dichotomy across the US economy and depending where you are, particularly on the income spectrum, you're feeling tougher times than others.
I would say, though even.
For lower income, lower middle income, they're struggling.
But it's not a recession. The unemployment rate is still quite low. Although you know that said, if we adjust for the drop in the participation rate, the unemployment rate would have been four point seven as on Friday instead of four point one. What we have seen is a participation rate drop quite sharply the last two months, and because discouraged workers, So the discouraged worker increase in June was a record monthly increase going back to I think it's nineteen ninety five.
That's the clearest explanation I've heard of this. David Rosenberg with a brilliant note out of Toronto Friday or Saturday, I can't remember when. I really want to emphasize that. A lot of people I respect are saying, Okay, it was a really pretty good jobs report, but it wasn't. And there it is some Kathleen bus johnsick when you take the goofy math of unemployment and labor which Mike
McKee gets and I don't. The answer is the unemployment rate would have been four point seven percent given labor force participation. Really something to think about is Chairman Powell goes to a July FED meeting on the stock market and the ability to be in the market. We got a briefing from Lori Calvacina, RBC Capital Markets.
If I think back to my most recent trip to Canada seeing investors up there, it was a very different trip than what i'd say had back in December and what I had had back in February, when I would say we would go into meetings and the conversations were pretty much all about tariffs when you talked to a lot of global investors in Canada who are always sort
of thinking about countries and comparing them. We heard plenty of conversation about tariffs on this last trip, but there was also a lot of emphasis on AI and productivity in the US, and people were actually starting to talk about some non tariff related things. And I know that sounds a little bit shocking, but I would say it was not as negative a vibe as what I had seen earlier in the year orar late last year.
Larry Kavasina, RBC Capital Marcus and of course that dovetails into a fascinating earning season. Paul said it best. I think he said. He pass SWEENI said, but it's also about the guidance that will be there. Will we see guidance given all the uncertainty that's out there. We'll try to guide you on economics, finance, investment, and international relations through the week across the nation on Apple and Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea