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Single best idea. We'll be quick today. The entire team has to take a nap after the sleepless day after day that we're facing, and we hear from you that you're facing as well. Let's get right to it. Urian Timor is outstanding of fidelity. I can't say enough about his technical analysis. He's very generous with it. Go to LinkedIn and look for Urian tim Or t I mme R and it is absolutely spectacular pro analysis of trend. Here is Urian Timmer a fidelity counting sheep?
Yeah, how you count sheep when you try to fall asleep? I was counting the number of bear markets I've lived through forty years on Wall Street, and so I'm at number twelve now, so I've gone through twelve bear markets and they're all equally indifferently scary, but they all have
things in common. And this is why we look at charts, of course, And ironically, you know the LTCM nineteen ninety eight cycle, which of course there's no resemblance to today in so many ways other than it was an unwinding of crowded, levered trades. And of course we have some of that this time around. But you know, a textbook technical pattern is you fall ten percent because you know something is not right, and then if it ends up being okay,
then you rally and everyone forgets about it. You know, last summer that little growth scare with the Enkerry trade was an example of that. Nobody remembers that, but it was down ten percent, and then if something does end up getting worse, it falls to twenty percent, and at that point it's discounted a fair amount of bad news, and then you get the inevitable rally like we saw last week when the terrifts were delayed for ninety days, and you bound up to that scene of the crime
where the market broke down the first time. So that's fifty five hundred on the S and P, and that's where the seller's come out and lo and behold, this is exactly where this rally has stopped.
You're in timor just brilliant there on the technical trends of the market, of course, now hanging on every headline. I'm very very hesitant to say technical analysis really is part of the discussion. We certainly have not seen going down the typical chapter in a technical analyst textbook which says you need Catharsis to find about him. I don't think anyone in the game is saying that we've seen a cathartic event. Constance Hunter is with EIU and also
macro policy perspectives, and she was just brilliant today. The thing we talked about not here but before was animatics and pharmaceuticals. She's really emphasizing the White House analysis of pharmaceuticals within tariffs, and I picked up on what does that mean for China is a export some of the chemicals and those needed drugs that our families use each and every day. From EIU, here's Constance Hunter on the moment.
So we're looking at all the intermediate goods, right. So if you think about even manufacturing in the US, even the manufacturing we do here, take important parts and put that into the final goods.
Right.
So this is like the policies of Juan Peron in Argentina in nineteen forty five when he said, well, we're just going to make everything here in Argentina. Like, if we keep going down this road, it does not end well.
So an I allusion to Argentina. Thank you, Anne Marie Horden for her travel to Benessaris to speak of the Secretary Treasury and needed conversation. Given the crisis. We are going to continue with our conversations and discussions on tariffs
and on what clearly is a trade war. Particularly thank you to our Hong Kong News bureau that's been sleepless in the Chinese morning about seven pm Eastern time, That's when I really start looking at the next day, because that is the next day in Asia on the Pacific Rim, we are on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts. In the Pacific Rim evening you can hear us there and see us there and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea.