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Single best idea, really interesting today, great equity market coverage GM. Martin Adams was really quite sophisticated about the linkage between technical analysis, fundamental and even economics. David Rosenberg joined us from Canada. Thank you to his comments on King Charles speech. He said the Canadian public really wasn't grabbed by the speech. It was much more about the elites and the politicians
and all that. Katie Kaminski on trend Out at ELF Simplex in Boston was really quite good, saying there is beginning to be elements of a trend in the equity market. We spoke on foreign Exchange with Jordan Rochester of Missouo and what's so great about the shop is they have dominic constant Steve Shudo and Jordan Rochester. I asked Jordan Rochester, how do you piece those three minds together.
What we think is there's gonna be no Fed cuts this year. Steve's got one and a half percent GDP forecast, but are three and a half percent inflation, So your noomenal's at five and the Fed's going to be looking at three and a half inflation. That's not an environment where you're cutting rates, you need to have really big
weakness in the labor market to do so. However, what Constant would point out, and what I point out too, is that this market is very much inclined to say that there's a very high bar to get to get this market to think hikes are the next move by the Fed. The market will continue to think that cuts the next move, but we are of the view it won't happen this year. So what that means for trades is we like front end flatteners, So price out the rate cuts for this year, pricing more cuts for next year,
because that's how this market is biased. So we have a steep We're gonna have a flattening of the curve. More cuts, price for twenty twenty six, less for twenty five.
Jordan Rochester with Missoui there in the summer is as he says, no FED rate cuts this year boring. We'll off to see on that. But also then he is euro out to one twenty stronger euro, not immediately, but a stronger euro through two thousand and twenty five. Nancy Lazarre was with us with Piper Sandler. She's definitive in the business, and she was absolutely blistering about capital spending.
Here, Nancy Lazzar, First, what's given is nominal GDP. That's what's created by both monetary and physical policy. And nominal GDP growth has been about five percent next year? Could it move up to something a little bit more than that. Yes, I've got to make some new stop.
Are you saying six percent nominal GDP?
Well, that's historically what the peak growth rate had been prior to the GFC. That's not out of the question going forward, as you could in place tax reform, as you put in place full appreciation on capex, manufacturing structures and also manufacturing equipment. Capital spending is just underappreciated as the drive of growth. Without businesses and reinvesting in a country, you end up with stagnation, which is what happened to us after China joined WTO.
I can't say how unusual that conversation is. If the core equation is our nation's output, our GDP, howeve you measure it is consumption seventy percent, investment eleven maybe thirteen percent. Then you got government spending and all the uproar over the debt and the deficit, and you bolt on the back end, export, imports and all. How little within financial media we speak about the eye investment and that's where
Nancy Lazar is completely focused. Is the idea, you can't create jobs in any nation unless you have capital investment, capital spending. Just brilliant Nancy Lazar with Piper Sandler across the nation on your commute. Don't forget serious XM Channel one twenty one, old school technlogy on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and out at YouTube podcasts. It's a single best idea MHM.