Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Katy Kaminski - podcast episode cover

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: John Stoltzfus & Katy Kaminski

Sep 26, 20254 min
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Episode description

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with John Stoltzfus & Katy Kaminski.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

The single best idea. I'm not a typical September Friday. We're supposed to slide into the weekend. There is no sliding. Paul Sweeney was better than me. He brought it up at least four times. Oh next week a government shutdown. We barely looked at it, given the news flow and of course some of the magic of a September sporting scene, Red Sox and the Tigers, the Yankees, the Blue Jays, all of it just very exciting. And of course the Ryder Cup on Bloomberg Radio is really exciting for Washington,

New York. In Boston, we did look at the equity markets. Three down days in a row, go to cash. John Stolphe says No. At OpCo, he has been brilliant about participating in the market in a rational way for long term investment. Here from OpCo, John stolfs.

Speaker 3

You need to distinguish between are you a trader or

are you an intermediate to longer term investor. And I think, as you know, I've been to this business since nineteen eighty three, so I've been through a lot of economic cycles and bull markets and bear markets and In the process of this, the tone of the market has changed because the private investor today across generations is investing for their retirement or investing in retirement, and they want to preserve their standard of living or improve their standard of

living going forward. And from a historical basis past performance being no guarantee future results tends to be Equities outperform other asset classes for more periods than many people would think who are bearish or skeptics on the market.

Speaker 2

It's a different approach to Dow fifty thousand to s and PA eight thousand. Ed Yard Denny, as an economist, looks at the economy. John Stulfus is a market strategist, looks much more at sectors and markets. The common feature is the buoyancy of the economy innovation technologies, like Edyard Denny would say. And then over to revenue, which John Stoulfus mentioned today, I watch revenue dynamics as much as

I watched the key element, which is profit. We profited from Captain Kominski joining us today in studio in New York. She is hugely associated with the Charles River in Boston and with the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Katie Kominsky of Elpha Simplex on the trend that's out there.

Speaker 1

Trend falling as a strategy is meant to be self correcting in the sense that as trends move against you, your positions naturally reduce. So as you see trends expand you're expanding positioning as you see them contracting, your contracting positioning all using math. Really, when you have sort of a reversal and signal, it's a combination of two things. One is sort of the reduction in the signals strength.

The other is volatility expansion. So as volatility expands, you also integrate that and how you measure what your position sizing should be. So when that's why you see a lot of quants struggled this year, because when you see those type of shocks, it's hard to measure it inside baseball.

Speaker 2

That was brilliant from Katie Kominsky bottle it. I literally my first interview when I walked in the door at Bloomberg was about trend following using the Bloomberg terminal as giants of years ago did. Was Sun Microsystems Spark stations. One of those founders of Katie Kominski's world was John Henry who has a baseball team in Boston, an English football team in Liverpool, and I believe he is ownership of some form of the Sydney Crosby franchise in Pittsburgh.

Kati Kaminsky, wonderful to have her in today from Elvisimplex. We're on podcasts, We're on Apple, We're on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea

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