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Single best idea are really interesting. Dare I say? Twisted show today we had a real focus on fixed income. My major complaint with the bond market is the media focuses on yield and then they focus on spreads, the difference in yield between two yields, like a ten year yield a two year yield. You calculate the spread and it's like half a percentage point whatever the answer is. In times of emotion, in times of crisis, all of a sudden you focus on price and we're there right
now where it's about price down. What does that do to your portfolio? So it was good to talk to a lot of different fixed income people today. Major shout out to Neil Sutherland, the Schroeders in Hartford of Connecticut, and Wayne Pennsylvania. Neil Sutherland should say and Neil was really quite good about full faith and credit and finding comfort in a coupon. We talked to Jim Karen Morgan Stanley with all of his fixed income expertise. He linked in the fixed income market to tough GDP numbers.
I think the risk is that the number could even be weaker, So there's a lot of adjustments that really took place as of yesterday just because of the trade data that came in. You know, the deficit came in at record levels, so that forced all the Wall Street analysts to reduce or downgrade their GDP estimates for today.
And essentially, what we have to understand is that a lot of this is coming from imports, meaning that companies have pulled forward purchases, so their imports have actually gone up. When you have high imports versus exports, that actually subtracts. That's a negative that what we call, you know, the net number, is actually subtracting from GDP. But there's a problem, Tom.
The problem is that what's also not beingd is that these things should balance out, not only if you have really big imports, you should then start to see inventory build and you should also start to see spending consumption on those imports that's not yet coming into the equation yet. There's a quirk and the timing here, so it's almost like you're going to get negative aspects, but you're going to miss some of the positive and that's what's giving it a big negative number.
Jim Carron and Morgan Stanley let me walk through that right now. I had a lot of interest in this, thank you for a smart tweet out there that said, explain it exactly. There's domestic economic might, and then there's what we do abroad. Abroad is the exports. We send out a lot of its services and a lot of it is the imports coming in. And think of the stereotype of Mercedes Benz from Germany or all the stuff stuff, stuff we bring in from China. That's imports coming in.
It's way more complicated than what I just said. But the answer is what is the economy doing without exports dynamics, without import dynamics. It's a few other things they throw in as well, so you try to pass the exam. And the answer is there's the domestic economy may be measured by domestic final sales, other ways to do it too.
And then there's export imports. And the ANSWER's imports were so ginormous stuff coming in to get it in front of the trade war that Charles Schwab quickly said, look, it's almost a five percent crater, negative four point eight percent, four point six percent, negative four point six percent just off imports. So pushing you against that was a pretty good US economy And the answer is it was about three percent GDP for the regular, old, boring domestic economy.
It comes out to a number, then it'll be revised over the next two looks. But it was a negative statistic today for GDP, but all sorts of asterisks around that. What to focus on is the market took it in a challenging way, joining us then on the linkage of this trade wark into our economic data and our international relations. Peter Cheer of Academy.
Securities, I can tell you quite safely that when we talk to our retire generals and admirals, one of whom is going to be Under Secretary of State, Undersecretary of Defense for Personnel and Readiness, they've never seen a more trying period of their lifetime, right they've served.
There is so much risk across the globe, and recently too, you've had Indian Pakistan flare up a little bit. It does feel like there's this real risk that everyone's going to push the envelope a little bit. Whether it's there's a perception, whether it's real or not, but a perception that Trump is less focused on global protecting global interest.
Peter sheer of Academy securities this morning. What's coming up here? It's an incredibly busy week. Lots of economic data today, and then we go on to claims tomorrow. I think that could be a surprise we'll see. And then the
jobs report, boy, the analys. Right now, I would love to get a cup of coffee or along lunch with Anna Wog right now, just to get an update on Bloomberg Economics on a survey number of one hundred and thirty five thousand non farm payrolls and a real mystery that it could be marked down lower on your commute. Acrascination Android Auto is seeing more and more talk about what Google and Android are doing in cars on Apple CarPlay as well and on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts
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