Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news, single best Idea. What a remarkable day. We really spent a lot of time today respecting our founder Matthew Winkler and the strong support of our editor in chief John Micklethwaite, and not doing rumor or speculation. There were some blistering rumors and speculations this morning about the Republicans, about the Democrats, and we just we're going to do the news flow. Shout out to Michael Barr, who does a great job every day.
I wish all of you could see how he seriously, how he pieces together the different news commentary and then changes it over the course of a morning. It's truly an act of God what Michael Barr does, and more so into the great unknown of this Thursday, the former president will speak tonight. Joe Matthew and Kayleen Lines will have all that coverage. David Gura of the Big Tag. We'll be speaking with the Governor of New York State
of Buffalo, Kathy Hokeel. Lots to talk about there, and of course a real mystery about our president who at eighty one as COVID. That can never be good to have that really difficult illness at that age of eighty one. We tried to stay on economics, finance and investment today and did that with Jim Bianco, who has an outlier call. He says, flat out they're wrong. They don't need to cut.
The new run rate of interest rates wrapped around this concept from John Williams, our start is at a higher level. Jim Bianco, don't cut in September.
America is ready for it because the economy can handle it, the financial markets can handle it. It's the economic community that's not ready for it right now. If you look at the current level of interest rates and you listen to FED speak, they talk about it being highly restrictive. It might be retarding the economic growth. And again look at the stock market. Look at the rally in small cap stocks when we started pricing in September in the last week or so, and the data is just not there.
But the economists still cling to this that the neutral funds rate, which is what our star is, is two and a half percent. And put this in terms, the Fed thinks they need to cut ten times to get to neutral. That's why they want to get started. They got a lot of work to do. The market is probably telling them, no, you probably need only about four or five cuts to get to neutral. There really isn't
any hurry. But if you're going to give me stimulatives interest rates by lowering them, then I'm going to pile into small cap stocks. And that's what we've seen in the last week.
Jim Bianco Bianco Research, Chicago, And to remind you, he was absolutely brilliant eighteen months ago, two years ago by saying, yeah, there's disinflation, but at some point we're going to pause. And boy was he right about that. Now maybe we've
got a new disinflationary ten trend. Bruce Casman at JP Morgan, running all of their economics, puts out a very forceful note today to look for global disinflation in the second half of twenty twenty four and that relative and absolute dynamic of price increase between the United States and other nations and particularly em and Asia will really be quite important. Okay, so he did some politics. You get Wendy Schiller to
show up. She's a pinata of a lot of people because she's very forceful about our history that maybe we don't want to hear. And she's going back to the Democratic Donnybrook, which I take back, and this is the
great work of Nevins. Allan Nevins, the historian on Grover Cleveland, I call him Grover Cleveland Alexander now Grover Cleveland, who was a two term president with a gap in between, much like what mister Trump is aspiring to do, and basically the idea that credit conventions, whether planned or perhaps unplanned, can be flat out nuts.
If you ever imagine a political nightmare, an open Democratic convention in twenty twenty four would be that, because it will be it will expose the fissures and fractures within the Democratic Party between the very progressive left, the progressive the middle, and you know, they won't be able to agree.
They're going to want their person to challenge Trump and try and make arguments about that all the way from Bernie Sanders Lives Warren all the way down to you know, dark horses like Gina Romundo, Secretary of Commerce, you know, and Greshen Whiber might be dragged back into it. Joshua Bruro of Pennsylvania. It will look like the Democrats can't decide and don't know what they're doing, and will only feed into whatever nostalgia Trump voters have for Trump, but
also independent voters who want a stable system. And this is the big irony of twenty twenty four. Now the Trump and Republicans appear right now to be more stable, less chaotic than Biden and the Democrats.
That is the single best discussion of one potential path forward I have heard. She is a Jewel, Wendy Schiller of Brown University. We're out on YouTube again. Subscribe, you know, I looked down YouTube videos and they say subscribe and click the bell or whatever like I never understood it. Subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts out on YouTube. It's the heart and soul of our future project. Here an Apple Android. They're out with some new software. Excuse me, Apple CarPlay.
They're out with some new software coming up to improve Apple CarPlay. And I got a blistering note today that Android Auto is going to go through a whole new upgrade as well. It is the future from New York City on Apple Podcasts. This is single best I did