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It is crisis that makes a show, single best idea, and the crisis not so much coming out of Monday or Sunday evening when we realized in Tokyo the world was blowing up, but just really an extended crazy summer culminating in last week, which was as nuts as I've ever seen day after day, and then into the funny games of Monday morning and the recovery that we've seen Tuesday and Wednesday. It's just about conversations where so many people,
quite frankly, are all saying the same thing. They're all reading from the same Hymnoal, but there's nuances and distinctions. Here are two of the fifteen conversations I could give you with distinctions, and here first is a bomb show. No one has done the bond market better than Ian Lingen, with a shout out to David Rosenberg in Toronto, but Ian Lingen and BMO Capital Markets absolutely nailed sub four
percent ten year yield price up, yield down. He goes further, Ian Lingen, looking out twenty four months.
Well, we will be pushing back below three percent. Now, that's not going to be this year. But that is certainly on the horizon for let's call it the next twenty four months.
You are modeling sub three percent, ten year, two point ninety five percent.
Now by the end of two thousand and twenty six, very.
Doable, extraordinary. I can't tell you how lonely that call is. Right now, we will see Ian Lingoln with BMO Capital Markets, a very nuanced call which is linked directly into the economy. And he kept circling back to where brusquee JP Morgan is, which is not us disinflation and the worries we all have at the grocery store, but the idea of global disinflation.
And I'm going to circle back. As I've said on the show, I'm sorry from boring you, but way Lee's comment from black Rock last week of her modeling of her China it's three percent real GDP is without question the most important thing for America. I've heard you get a China slow down from five well from seven percent ages ago to five percent, and you come down and Stan Fisher would say five to three is two divided by five. I think my math is that's a forty
percent lessening of real GDP. Oomph in China, I do okay, and that Eric good I got it. I'm the only one doing a podcast and the engineer has a Kufel and us or slide rule out being sure my math is okay andling in there with a shocking call below three percent. Andre Chal Friedman holds at Bloomberg in London, Queen Victoria Street, and she is writing for Bloomberg Intelligence. You see it on the terminal. We keep it very exclusive in that and she has a very twisted view
because she's truly continental. She's she's just got a different view than what I'm gonna call Anglo Saxon and particularly American FX analysis, ourd child Freeman trying to frame out yen. Remember, folks, from one sixty dollars yen stronger yen down to one forty something in the shock of trying to get back to a weaker yen.
We've gone to one two inch a day. On Monday, were back at one forty seven today just on the bog rapes mentioned this morning. Yesterday we were at one forty five. So what I need to see first is is the new kind of range that we base ourselves from one forty five to one fifty and that's where I kind of expected to be. And if so, what do we do? And what I do is I wait for,
you know, the next trigger to move lower. And I kind of feel that that next trigger may come from the US, but it won't be as extreme as what we've seen in the past few sessions.
In weeks odit. Jeff Friedman there on FX and on the Japan effect really can't say enough about the value I we're trying to do an economics, finance and investment and international relations. It has just been I mean, it's been like an eight month long summer. Is sort of where we are. We're sort of benumb by it. We're going to continue the energy forward here into this August and all of a sudden, really yesterday was the first day I put radar on Jackson Hall. This will be
a different Jackson Hall. We've got a different plan, a different schedule, but many of the same people. I want to keep the names private now because everybody's schedules are in flux over who will be there. But all of a sudden, Jerome Poull's speech at Jackson Hole is front and center. We do that near in the vicinity of August twenty second, we're out on Android Auto, Apple car Play, both of them coming out with new software to win the digital radio game. On YouTube, we are humbled by
the last three days response, thank you. And on YouTube it's just simple. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast building every day on Apple Podcasts. It is single best idea.