Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Single best idea on a marginally calmer day than the last three days of festivities. Yesterday afternoon, I was in the surveillance snap and I woke up from virtually the crisis of down thirty percent. I can't remember what the exec number is, down thirty two percent to making it halfway back to down seventeen percent, down eighteen percent from the recent highs of what last two three four months.
Just an extraordinary rally yesterday after President's actions on pausing tariffs, and we picked up the pieces this morning, a lot of really really good conversations. Ian Lingoln was with us with BEMO Capital Markets, Bank of Montreal. He is absolutely definitive on full faith and credit here. Ian Lingen on the.
Moment, I actually think, if anything, the turmoil in Washington increases the chances of a consumer led economic slowdown and a recession is disinflationary on a forward basis. So once we absorb all the tariff increases, I think we'll have a consumer that is in a much different, much less compelling place than it was during the pandemic. And so I'm worried about disinflation in two thousand and twenty six and beyond Ian.
Lncoln looking at one part of the FED mandate there, and it's some real confusion about what the Fed does forward. No fault of them in this time of policy chaos, I guess is how to collegiately put it. I'll be over at see an end today's scheduled at least this afternoon. And you know, as Ian Lingen talks about inflation, I think for the non Bloomberg, the non single best idea surveillance world, the job economy is really front and center into the rest of two thousand, two twenty five. Anamong
today stunned me. She's already modeling five point three percent unemployment out there somewhere in the next year. And I don't want to be too inflammatory on this, but I can't begin to find words for the reach from four point x percent four point one four point two percent out to maybe a modeled four point eight percent consensus, and then to go beyond that to a five point three percent unemployment rate. I'm not sure Washington, of any party
persuasion is ready for that. Anaalong of Bloomberg economics.
What the Trump pivot did yesterday is to shift the composition of the tariff onto consumer goods. And as you know, Paul I was in the camp in the previous and the previous couple months that I think that ultimately the firms will be eating these tariffs through margin compression, which
disproportionately will hit the stock market at EPs for firms. However, I think that yesterday pivot is actually bad for CPI because it now means because China exports more consumer goods to US than other countries, so by reducing terraff rights of other countries which still remain rather elevated, while boosting Chinese tariffs from one hundred and twenty five percent from
the previous eighty four percent. So even though today the report shows no signal will pass through from Chinese tariffs, I think maybe that could change in the next couple of months. But the negative side of today's report is that Trump may be emboldened by today's report saying that while tariffs are not inflationary, look at this and he would press ahead with reciprocal tariffs, lights out.
No other way to put it. An along running Bloomberg US Economics just profoundly important work in twenty twenty four, and of course that continues into this year. Look out on particularly LinkedIn. If you want to get a window into this and a really nice window in the economics on the Bloomberg terminal, go to LinkedIn where Anna and our global team. It's not just what they're saying, like what you hear on single best Idea with doctor Wong,
It's about what they're showing. Matt Winkler's foundational belief was show, don't tell, and Bloomberg Economics has graphical presentations of all these dynamics like nobody else in the world. It's just absolutely stunning what Stephanie Flanders is developed with doctor Wong there on your commune across the nation. Thank you so much for listening. On YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts, it's growing each and every day, and on YouTube podcasts, this is a single best idea