Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on a two hour broadcast, that's what we could do today. There was so much material and the newsflow just overwhelming through the Thank you to the Bloomberg News team a sleepless night covering this horror in Utah. We greatly appreciate that. Of course, the FBI with a conference and I'm sure there'll be more news through the day. The President of the United States speaking on this eleventh of September at
the Pentagon. Go to Wikipedia and go down flight seventy seven and the paragraphs of what was lost at the Pentagon is just heartbreaking. I think it's a lot of things Americans don't know. There's New York, and there's all sorts of your images of the horror in New York. But I'll tell you the Pentagon was really something with huge loss. At our Department of Navy, we tried to prosecute a normal show on a very non normal day
to day. What a noninative griston distant Feld with us with Alliance Bernstein, truly a giant and fixed any in fixed income. He gave us his reminiscence of his eleventh of September here Gristen distant Feld on the worry of higher yield.
We've been focused so much on what the Fed's going to do in the latest CPI print and stuff, and we seem to have forgotten about the budget deficit and what's weally going to drive the long end of the curve. So I think that sometime that's going to become an issue that's not going away. It's hard to talk about politics in a day as as solemn as not just nine eleven, but you know, the political assassination of Charlie Kirk, which probably the largest one in the past fifty years.
It's a very solemn day to talk about things like this. But you know, it's there's going to be a time where we're going to have to come half to have a reconing. You know, I've been on I've been on record saying and you know this is not a prediction, but it wouldn't shock me if we woke up two, three, five years from now and we had a very normal curve out to ten years, goal to ten, you would have a three hand on it, and the and the
thirty year would be six or seven percent. I think there's going to be a reckoning where especially foreigners are not going to want to lend.
Us Kristen Distanfeld. They're really hearkening back to our conversation with kind of Througoff of Harvard University a number of days ago. Anna Wong has been extraordinary an important essay in the last seventy two hours on the revisions of jobs, saying, yes, there was a recession like job economy in twenty twenty four. She's more optimistic about a nascent improvement a better business cycle. Anna Wong on today's inflation statistics.
Three point six percent is actually the one of the highest sins for over six months now, so I think the contour of three months annualized, and this is a measure that Chris Waller has said he looks at. It's basically it has troughed a couple months ago and it's now on a rebound. And I think that what.
It is that the I think the rate hikes in the last couple of years in the level of that fund's right is only sufficient to bring inflation back down to about two point seven or two point eight percent, and thereafter it installed and it's now going right.
Just extraordinary analysis from doctor Walrong. Let me explain three months to annualized units. The biggest problem with surface analysis within the financial media is everybody looks on the y axis at price change. Far more important is what unit
is taken. For example, an ancient Wall Street people had a real predilection to look at weekly charts and not daily charts, and find value in monthly charts or units of a longer time, even quarterly or yearly charts, just to get a scope away from the day to day,
hour to hour tick of the modern Wall Street. Annualized takes the given data over one month or typically three months ninety days, and we say three months annualized, or we say what was the change over ninety days, and then we take that out and pretend it was over twelve months. There's flaws in it, to be honest, you know, sometime misused. But I'm sorry, I put very heavy weight in the three month annualized statistic. Jason Ferman leading a charge on this up at Harvard along with doctor Wong
of Chicago and Bloomberg. But the three monthly annualized statistics, I haven't seen them yet. On goods and services, they're not pretty. It's a podcast on Apple, on Modify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.
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