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It's single best idea today was absolutely extraordinary. Moody's cut the rating, you know whatever, it's old news now coming out on Friday afternoon, and we decided and Eric and the team were just brilliant and really taking a bond focus. What a bonds mean the debt and the deficit? What a bonds you mean for equities? What do they mean for currencies? What do they mean for commodities? And we're just a fascinating bond geek. Monday Strong was George Bori
at all Spring. He's got decades and decades of experience, and we talked to him about this partition between price decline of Bill's notes and bonds and yield increase.
The gield dominates in this environment. And even if bond yields, so if the thirty year were to go up to say five and a half percent, which is not out of the realm of possibility, you're still looking at positive returns in bonds. And that's why year to date bonds have been done exactly what they're supposed to do. That
income is carrying the day. Your sort of average bond performance is up about two percent year to date, not wildly exciting, but enough to beat cash and certainly enough to beat equities in a market where the market's trying to figure out what the growth trajectory is going to be on the back of tariffs. So what I tell investors, I tell our investors is two things. One, income is your friend. Number two, diversify that duration, and then let
the bonds do their job. They're doing exactly what they're supposed to do. Income, coupon, compound through time. If I can compound my portfolio today at say five to eight percent, depending on what kind of bond I buy, but if it's five and a half to six, I'm doing just fine and just sort of You can't ignore price changes in bonds. The price change only matters if you decide to sell it. If you hold onto the bond and you continue to compound your performance and the return improves
as you move through time. And that's the very powerful message in bond.
George Boy replay that if you'd like to, I think there's a lot of wisdom there. Mister borri is within all Spring. Dan Kerry came in today just outstanding outstanding work at Macro Risk advisors. It's very very financy derivatives, all sorts of forecross moments. It's a good place to mention that we protect the copyright of all of our guests. Get their research from them, a kind note, a kind of email, a kind phone call. You'd be amazed how
they give you a flavor of their genius. Dan Kurrent and I were talking about dollar dynamics, and that of course goes to my book of the Summer in Economics with Kenneth Rogoff, and that would be our Dollar Year Problem, dancing off of John Connolly from decades and decades ago. Dean currentive mri On Rogueff.
So Ken reached out to me on this book as well. I had him speak post the twenty eleven Eurozone crisis at a couple of events I hosted. You know, our dollar year problem, our debt our problem, and I think, so that's a little bit of a different take on it. I would say, you know, up at five and a half six percent, the math of running the interest costs
through that debt structure is just remarkably different. You know, there's really no resemblance to the current structure of US interest rates relative to when we took on all the debt in twenty twenty, which look was an emergency we were trying to push back against COVID. But I think the ten year traded as low as fifty five basis
points into twenty twenty one. The tenure yield was one point two percent at the lows, and so this bears no resemblance to that, and these interest costs are punishing. You know, Tom, you have me on here to talk about the vis and you know, whenever we talk about volatility, we talk about things like nonlinearity, and with regard to treasuries, I think that's a facet of the market that we typically wouldn't characterize as having a risk of. But you know, things gradually then suddenly.
The most cautious I've ever heard being current, no question about it. Just a brilliant day. Really looking forward to the rest of the We quieter economic data this week, but lots of good conversation to be had across the nation. On your commute, look to Android Auto, I'm looking at that every day. Really improving the software capabilities of Android Auto,
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