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Single best idea, which is that my number one book to read is Against the Gods. It is dated but still wonderful, and I must read. It's a right of passage for anybody that wants to go into the business. But I would suggest also that it's great because there's a real dearth of math. There's a little bit of Pascal's triangle and probability combination theory, but other than that, there's no math. And it's Peter Bernstein and it's absolutely classic.
And it's about risk, uncertainty, and ambiguity, and those are three different things. And in the scope of a short podcast, I'm not going to go into it. But the swarning you really went from punditry and strategy around risk an ability to measure where you are, to the reality that we really can't measure what's going on, a huge amount of uncertainty. Conversation to conversation on the view on equities, maybe on earnings, Eric van Nostri Andlizard Asset Management.
So what we're looking at is the disconnect between where where economic fundamentals are telling us that oil is going to go, the companies that are linked to the oil price, the companies that are link to other non oil imports coming out of the straight are going to go and what markets are saying, and we're still concerned that markets are much too sanguine about these shocks, much too sanguine about inflation in general, in an environment where the fundamentals
on the ground don't seem like this is wrapping up anytime soon.
I really agree with that kind of uncertainty from Eric van Nostri and what I would say. I did this on Twitter quickly this weekend. In a time like this, everybody looks at the Y axis, the up and down access on a chart, whatever the chart is, red SOX, baseball, the straits, a lot of traffic, whatever it is, And the hardest thing to do is to look at the X axis, which is the time function, and that's where
all the uncertainty is. Is just just massive, Like if you say, okay, oil's one hundred and ten, when's it going to get to quote normal? Nobody on the excesses as a clue, I would really focus on any of the time functions or determinants. It's so many of the experts are talking about on the bond side, a brilliant note from Scott demanishio of Alliance Bernstein. His basic take is full faith and credit. Here Scott demands you again on your uncertainty.
We think the majority of your return is going to come from clipping clipping that coupon. But if we are right and the economy slows and we get into the second half of the year, the Federal Reserve can reduce interest rates one to two times. We think you can get some spread tightening, some lower interest rates, and you can get some capital appreciation and as as well, the
corporate market offers value. You know, the muni market's repriced quite a bit the last two or three weeks, so we think the muni market, especially the long end, also offers values for those you know, US US clients.
Scott Demaga there with the Lions Bernstein on podcasts or on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.