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Single best idea, well, today's single best idea it was Ira Jersey. He drives all of Bloomberg Intelligence fixed income. He's truly brilliant, particularly on the short end of the market, what I call the trust market, commercial paper and libor and sofa and stuff. I really don't the repo market, I don't understand it. But what we're doing today, we had our first good conversation on the World Cup. Just a window into some of the people that we talk
to every day. Ira Jersey is one of the giants of American youth soccer, hugely involved with the New Jersey Soccer, which is a hot bend of it nationwide. And we talked to Ira our first good conversation on this World Cup extravaganza that starts eleven, take way three in eight days, so we'll see on that. Drew Mattis can do the math. He's at MetLife. Drew Matis just wonderful on linking in the markets into our behavioral economics. Here is true, Matis.
Everyone keeps arguing that, you know, it makes no sense that sentiments so low because everything's so good right housing. You know, if you own a home. Your home prices are up, your equity prices are up. If you have a job, you're doing okay. And the reality of it is is like, at this stage of my life, I don't really care about myself anymore. I kind of just
want to make sure my kids are happy. And you know, they have trouble affording a home, they have trouble finding work, they have trouble, you know, pretty much with everything, and
kind of, you know, beyond the norm for kids. Right. So, I think that's what's going on in America today is that you know, people are doing fine and they see that their home price is going up, but you know what, finding a way to kind of translate that to your kids doing better is increasingly difficult, and that's why you see sentiments so weak. But everyone's got money to spend, so they're spending.
It was your Madus of met Life had two great mathematic types come in today. Alicia Levine from BNY, our chief investment officer, was just brilliant on some of the dynamics of the market, this idea of reversion to the mean, and then Dean Current showed up from Macro Risk Advisors. Here's Dean kurrent On. Moving forward with the.
Math, there's the old saying timing in the market versus time in the market. You want to be in the market over a long period of time. That's when compounding of returns really works. So you just don't want to get yourself trading in and out. I think it's proven to be largely unsuccessful, the ability to time the market. You want to be risk aware. You also want to understand that this bedrock of institutional portfolio is sixty forty, right,
sixty stocks, forty bonds. That just doesn't work the same way as it used to. You know, even as I'm telling you that the correlation across the stock market these stocks are very uncorrelated. The correlation between the stock market and the bond market is very high, and it's very much linked to oil. Oil is throwing a wrench in so many efforts at diversifying your portfolio because everything is linked to oil, inflation expectations, the path of interest rates,
and so forth. So from a diversification standpoint, sixty forty doesn't work as well. So you have to just recognize that, and again that to me argues a little bit more for being not fully invested, right now and again. I think that's some combination of just having some cash on the sidelines, which relative to a decade ago when there was a zero percent yield on cash, now you get four percent.
Yeh, that's not bad. Dean Kurnent there macrosk Advisors. After that conversation, Paul Sweeni and I looked at bt MM, which is a terminal screen with all of the short term rates. It's got to be out of the top of them. Had sixty statistics on that screen, and we forget it's a three point six percent, even a four percent market for cash and near cash equivalent. Steam currentt with Macro Risk Advisors on a podcast on Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea.