Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news single best idea it could be a twenty thirty forty minute podcast today. What a set of insights now as we move on days from announcements in the Rose Garden a bombshell announcement. You know, you look at home. You're at home, and I'm in the coffee table that builds on my lap, and the phone's on the coffee table and I don't want to pick it up because they don't know what the news
will be. So of course, well Kennel Field was on my lap last night and I picked it up at nine point fifteen and there was China saying no, we're not going to play, and the market's girad and the emerging markets went off in Japan went up. You know, you know the story. But then we get a real lift this morning, and there's still great uncertainty out there. Really, thanks to all of Bloomberg for letting us go commercial free in the nine o'clock hour. It makes a big,
big difference to get the market open. We started strong with the Nobel Laureate Paul Krugman, always controversial YouTube Live Jat lit up like a candle. Thanks for those constructive comments pro and con. Paul Kruman on what he won the Nobel Prize for and what it's about is nonlinear tariffs.
Let's listen, the damage done by tariffs is not proportional to the tariff, is proportional to the square of the tariff. So you know, a twenty percent tariff is something like four times as bad as a ten percent tariff. Now putting numbers to it, I mean long run, it's finding the long run impact of these terraffs is probably look, it's going to be worse than Brexit. So in Brexit we tend to think it was three or four percent of British GDP. Maybe this could easily be more than that.
Though there's a limit to it deep it's hard to get. It's not you know, in itself, it's a serious hit to the economy. But the funny thing is the short run it can be worse. And the reason it can be worse is that is the extreme uncertainty that we're creating. And so you know, once you know, even with these high tariffs will settle down, eventually, business will find ways to cope. Costs will be higher, GDP will be lower, But that's you know we'll make that transition.
Paul Krugman, of course, on his substack, can't say enough about it. Subscribe to Paul Krugman substack. He's writing, if anything, more often than when he was with the New York Times, and it's on fire. Whatever your political beliefs, We've really enjoyed the academic debate of this. We really think all of the different heavyweights worldwide, worldwide, who weighed in. Jason Furman,
writing in the Financial Times today was heated. A major shout out to Lamond in Paris, who, in Lamond English had the two economists that Peter Navarro of the White House mentioned. They wrote an essay I don't have their names in front of me. One's out of Berkeley, one's out of Mit, and they were absolutely scathing and being quoted by Navarro. Look to Lemonde in English. It's really worthwhile to get a snapshot of what's going on in France.
Thank you Adam Too's fear interest in Bloomberg. I'm surveillance and always thank you to Professor Blanchard and at the Peterson Institute. Great to hear from you as well. It was great to hear from Libby Cantrell. She's a pimpco she's a great student of the parties. In the Ballet in Washington, Libby Cantrell, I'm Trump and his Republicans.
This speaks to the fact that this party is the party of Trump, and many folks in the House have the President to thank for even being there in the first place. And so this is why I think there's been a real reluctance to push back in public. Again, there is some private push back, but again, I think this is a worldview that President Trump has had for forty years. This is what we keep telling our clients, and he ran on this. He believes he has a
mandate to fulfill this. He believes that there's a lot of unfinished business from the first administration. And I think that the market obviously wants to maybe see through this or hope that there is something this will result in a different outcome. But our view is teriff rates are going to be going up and that will have a headwind on you know, growth and likely have implications for inflation.
To the degree is going to depend on the stickiness of all this, obviously, but I think there it is naive to think that we are not going to see probably significantly higher terrorf levels.
Lebby Controller of Pimkell. We talked to her as well about the path down the road, and with Mia mcguinnis yesterday as well on the budget, on the fiscal plan and of text. Lebby Control was somewhat optimistic that they could actually get through text legislation this year. We'll have to wait and see on that. We're deep into two this so he's like, you know, it's like November, second week of the year. What a long year. We're deep into April in this fractious two thousand and twenty five.
Thanks for listening on your commute across America on YouTube, Subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts and out on YouTube podcasts. This is a single best idea