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A single best idea. Paul Sweeney just told me it's going to be a long speech. I guess the president has wound up. We're all going to have to get comfortable with our popcorn and a beverage of your choice for a lengthy State of the Union. Joe Matthew, Kaylee Lions will have great conversation, deeper, thicker, better conversation than so many others. I think they do a great job at that. Our conversation that he was on trade Douglas Irwin definitive on the American history of trade and tariff.
Doug Irwin of Dartmouth College on the next legal battles.
The new terriffs, which are ten percent. He's promised fifteen percent, but they haven't issued the executive order on that quite yet. Those will probably be subject to legal challenge, and that's because the statute allows for the President to impose tariffs in the cases of a balance of payments, deficit, or disequilibrium, and it's not clear that in an era of floating exchange grades, whether it's such a thing exists anymore. Now.
The other side is that the tariffs can only be in effect for one hundred and fifty days and then require congressional approval. So there's a lot of uncertainty about how this is going to play out over the next couple months.
Douggarwyn of Dartmouth Nathan Deane stopped by running Policy US Policy for Bloomberg Intelligence. He had a very cogent summary of what to look for this evening.
There's three themes that we're telling our clients to watch out for. The first is geopolitics, and the reason why this is so important is for everything else, President Trump says tonight, there's a process, we can work the process, and there's time to respond. For geopolitics, that can change in an instance, so obviously keep an eye on what he says there. The other is tariffs. He's going to
double down on tariffs. I don't think you're going to see any new information coming out from tariffs, but he's going to double down, and he's going to have to look the Supreme Court in the eye and say, why did you essentially reverse my AEPA tariffs. But when it comes to affordability, you know, we're seeing a lot of headline risks and opportunities. We don't anticipate a lot of new ideas.
Nathan d There of Bloomberg Intelligence on the soiree this evening. On podcasts, We're on on Apple, We're on Spotify. On YouTube podcasts, a single best idea