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Single best idea on a Monday, What are you trying to accomplish here? Everyone's listening to twenty minute podcasts, including David Gura in The Big Take, and that's the way the industry's gone. What we're trying to do is slip in a shorter conversation six seven minutes and generally two insights from our many guests. And in any given day we can pick three, four or five six insights. But I really decided to keep the podcast short. We hope
it fits into your daily podcast schedule. And thank you to Apple for driving the podcast industry forward and Apple Podcast as well. The single best idea today could have been any number of voices. We start strawing with a gentleman who is pretty much congenerally said, disinflations in order, and of course David Rosenberg gets all fired up up in Toronto when disinflation is in order, he would suggests the FED is behind David Rosenberg on what the FED will do next.
I don't think that they have to wait wait wait. I think that the FED is still somewhat shamed for having missed nine percent inflation in the summer of twenty twenty two and leaning so hard on transitory. Although eighteen months in real time doesn't sound transitory, but in the overall annals of economic history, eighteen months is still pretty transitory.
But they still seem to be fighting for their credibility, you know, when they talk about that they need more confidence, just saying that they need more months or many more months of the disinflation trend that really dominated most of last year. So I think that part of it is that basically the horrible memory of what happened in twenty
twenty one twenty twenty two and blowing the call. And that's one of the reasons I think that they're going to be deliberately slow to start cutting interest rates, but I think when they do, they're going to be pretty significant.
David Rosenberg there and just literally, as we're always in the interviews, when Paul's leading the conversation, I'm out looking at all the zeitgeist and that, And literally as Rosenberg was on, there was Paul Krugman, the laureate, writing of course for the New York Times, and Professor Krugman out on Twitter saying, look, x shelter core inflation is one point nine percent, So this gives you some idea of
the trend. Jason Furman up at Harvard would put the ecumenical set of x number of inflation series at a higher level than the drama of one point nine percent. But certainly the inflation report that we saw continues to resound. Tomorrow, we'll have a retail sales which is a nominal number. That'll be interesting to see if that comes in light. Is a nominal number again that could be market moving showing lower prices in retail. Again, any number of good guests.
It was just wonderful to have Vanila Richardson in with ADP with automatic data processing, talking brilliantly on our paychecks and the calculations of adpcs with their almost monopoly, i'll say, on the market. Before her, Stephanie Roth was with this, Stephanie Roth of Wolf Research, and Stephanie is magnificently math driven and statistics driven, data driven. Here's Stephanie Roth on the data the reality of America's immigration.
So when you think about the steady state of payrolls growth, forgetting about immigration, we're talking somewhere there's domestic growth of eighty five to one hundred thousand. That's without sort of strong immigration trends. Immigration trends roughly double that, double, roughly
double that. So, for example, the Biden administration humanitarian parole programs, which is bringing in people from Mexico and then Cuba hating nik Grogua Venezuela, bringing in seventy five thousand people per month and they're able to get a work visa within thirty days.
Stephanie were out there and she went on was a really fabulous conversation about something everybody in economics is working on right now is a mystery of immigration. It's been with us for so much of two hundred plus years, but the new immigration and what it means in course a huge part of the political election. I do want to know David Gera driving on our coverage of the debates coming up. That'll be really interesting to see the
CNN debate. We'll have David in to give us perspective as there Greg Giau of Bloomberg Government in today as well. It is the beginning of an eventful week any number of themes. But I do want to mention we are at surveillance watching the geopolitics of the United Kingdom in France talk about a special relationship both of them. With
massive elections to come up, think coming up. I should say say thank you to Audrey child Freeman of Bloomberg Intelligence, writing on foreign exchange, who was just fabulous today on some of the tensions that they see in Paris. We're out on Apple CarPlay and Android the Bloomberg Business app. It's free, there is no cost to get on an Apple CarPlay. It's safer, it's better. They're coming out with a new version, I'm told sometime this fall, all souped
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