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A single best idea, which is probably that today was the single most original jobs day ever. It's a Tuesday, and we had a sort of kind of like October jobs report, a November jobs report two weeks after we were supposed to see it, and then I guess we move on to January. In two days we have the inflation report, which I think is pretty much normal, but don't hold me to that. I'll talk to Mike mckeeth about that. It's an odd time coming out of government shutdown.
One of the oddities we've seen his rotation in the market. Bringing up a theory which goes back one hundred years, the Dow theory. The Dow theory is that the stars aligned when the Dow Jones industrial average and the transportations and the utilities go up together or down together. A lot of good academic work on this in the nineteen thirties and the depression, and it was sort of gospel through World War Two and on my parents' fifties and sixties.
David Rosenberg of Rosenberg research on the Dow theory.
The Dow theory advocates obviously like what they're seeing I don't know, Tom, if you look at it more from a fundamental perspective, what the transports are really telling you, except for the fact that oil and fuel prices are coming down. So there's a historic inverse correlation of minus fifty minus sixty percent between what oil prices do in the transports. So the transports are seeing their margins improve
because of this exogenous development taking place. On the oil price going down, is it giving any confirmation on the economy? I would push against that view.
Really interesting idea there on oil, of course, the oil Brent crude, the global price under sixty dollars a bit, or West Texas Intermediate the American price so much based off Texas and Oklahoma. West Texas Intermediate clocks in under fifty six dollars a barrel. Those are wow statistics into the end of the year. I do want to note here that David Rosenberg spoke of Stephen Myron's disinflationary call
and really gave it some credence. There's a raging debate about what inflation will be Q one of next year and in to say, fourth of July Q two, what will we see, say the end of May, what will you see in that inflation report of June of next year. What a raging debate right now. We'll do a lot on that, I'm sure in the next six months. Think Tank of the Year, without question, the Budget Lab at Yale,
their leadership on tariff analysis was outstanding. Martha Gimble drives the ship, earning Tedesky with a shout out for the work on tariff's. They're now beginning to look at AI and they have an initial report. They make clear that it's just a first report of many to come. This is the Budget Lab at Yale and they're Martha Gimble on AI.
I mean, it would be unusual, right for there to be no labor market disruption when you introduce a major new technology. I think the thing that everyone keeps forgetting right is that it takes time for technological disruption to happen. It took decades for electricity to disrupt the labor market. It even took a pretty long time for the Internet
to kick in, right. It wasn't like immediately in nineteen ninety seven we were changing all the things, and so you know, AI feel so big and people are expecting to see, you know, impacts immediately. That's just not how companies were.
Martha Gimble at the Budget Lab at Yale. It's single best idea. It's on a podcast AI. We use AI every day here. That's on an Apple, on Spotify, on YouTube podcasts. It's single best idea
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