Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Alan Blinder - podcast episode cover

Single Best Idea with Tom Keene: Claudia Sahm & Alan Blinder

Dec 06, 20245 min
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Episode description

Tom Keene breaks down the Single Best Idea from the latest edition of Bloomberg Surveillance Radio.

In this episode, we feature conversations with Claudia Sahm & Alan Blinder.

Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

Single best idea after a job, stay, an extraordinary week, an extraordinary twelve months for this great bullmarkt That's my theme into the end of the year. We're not going to overweight equity strategists, but we're going to lean forward and listen a little more carefully to equity strategists into the end of the year. So many of them were

behind this bullmarket trend, so many of them are catching up. Yes, we'll emphasize people that nailed it at Yardanni getting a lot of accolade for that, and others Brian Belski, Fimo Capital Markets and many many others. But we're going to particularly listen to those that maybe got it wrong or off the mark and they're recalibrating. This is an absolutely cardinal rule of the business. Really, really really listen and

study people that got it wrong with a question. The seismic shift and strategy this week was David Rosenberg of Rosenberg Research in Toronto, who flat out came out in the last twenty four hours and said, I need to recalibrate, I need to readjust this is a bull market. What did I get wrong about growth? Really pay attention to David Rosenberg in the coming weeks as he recalibrates to this solid American economy and to equities higher. We finished the week strong, too many voices to even begin to

talk about. On Jobs Day? Where do you go, Claudia sam New Centries Advisors, Doctor somem on recession or lack thereof forward?

Speaker 3

I think if you ask people are we in a recession? Are you in a recession? They tie that.

Speaker 4

Word up with a lot of negative feelings, a lot of struggle and hardship. They don't tie it up to the National Blower of Economic Research's definition of a broad based contraction economic activity. So when I see those services of people saying we're in a recession, I understand that what they're telling us is they're facing some hard times where they have family and friends who are and that the sad reality is that's with us always.

Speaker 5

I mean, if you look at even say a group like Black Americans, is not the case at the moment, but over long stretches of history, what their unemployment rate outside of recessions looks like the recessionary unemployment rate, right, So, I mean, we just have pockets of hardship in the country and that hasn't changed from this, but it is a reminder we've got work.

Speaker 3

To do, and frankly, for those pockets of hardship, the best thing that we have to bring is a strong labor market where it's really working, especially at the bottom, and we saw some of that a few years ago, and that's part of what is slipping away.

Speaker 2

Important insight from Claudia sym and this goes back ages and ages of work. Is the best solution for people struggling is just a solid sense of economic growth. I know that doesn't get the job done, but at the same time, there we are as well. It was wonderful to speak to Alan Blinder, the former vice chairman of the Federserve System, iconic at Princeton University, clearly associated with

Democratic politics. Late in our conversation I asked Professor Blinder about that ownership the Democratic Party politics and Democratic Party economics had on working class America. They have shifted right.

Speaker 6

It's ironic to me that the Democrats against the Republicans go back generations. There's never been a question of which was the party that cared more about ordinary working people, never until now, and now there is and the Republicans, in particular Donald Trump have captured a lot of that

support and vote. I think that those people are going to see what the second Trump administration collection of billionaires actually does with the policy leavers and not be too happy, certainly not believe that it was for them.

Speaker 2

Terrific response to our conversation with Professor Blinder, those of a different presuasion, persuasion I should say, suggesting maybe it was a blinder in the politics of the past, and of course he had a lot of support out there as well for where the two parties head into twenty twenty six. In two thousand and twenty eight, on your commute across America, thank you for listening on YouTube. All

I can say is subscribe to Bloomberg Politic. Don't let your friends know you're doing it, but subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts and we're out there each and every morning seven to ten am Wallston time on YouTube podcasts. This is single best idea

Speaker 6

Seven

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