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A single best idea, the single best idea is to understand the jobs report is Thursday, not Friday. This week a huge wall of economic data squeezed in to a holiday lengthened work week. We start strong with Bob Michael out with a midyear update for JP Morgan driving all of their full faith and credit work many other duties as well. Bob Michael here on the new regime, which is the new normal.
We're heading into an environment that's more normal that existed pre Great Financial Crisis, when there is a demand for capital because there's a productive use for capital, and there will be a cost for that capital and it won't be zero. Does that mean the had funds rate belongs about where that first dot was that the Fed put out in twenty twelve, four and a quarter percent. Maybe could be get ready for that, Get ready for markets
where you could see a surgeon inflation. The Fed may have to go to six percent, and they may have to apply a little stimulus and go down to three percent. I think that's the market we're headed for, and I think that's an exciting market.
About Michael there with JP Morgan just really interesting conversations about the mid year review and of course the uncertainties and the many uncertainties hard to quantify that are out there. It was a joy to talk to bred Bechtel. He is with Jeffries and very different in foreign exchange strategy, with a huge trading in the sales part of it, the mechanism, the process part of buying and selling various
and sundry foreign exchange. I asked bred Bechtel the da here of what's the rookie mistake in foreign exchange trading.
The biggest mistake people make is they get convict they get convinced on a trade, they jump all in, and you have to be very careful. This is a saw tooth market. This is not a market that's on a forty five degree line. This is a market that likes to wash people out from time to time. So the moment you get convinced on the trade like I am now with the short dollar strategy, you have to remain nimble and you have to remain hedged and ready to
kind of reduce risk into the extreme move. So when the positioning gets extreme, that's when you should be lightening up. Look the reload on the snapback.
Red Bechdel with Jeffries. I can't say enough. We do equities, bonds, currencies, commodities. There's an entire US heritage back well over one hundred years of ignoring the dollar. We are the dollar. We don't have to care about foreign exchange because we are the dollar. Well, guess what, it's the modern ear where all of these relationships matter as well. Please stay with us again with the jobs report on Thursday, a uh pon podcasts at Apple podcasts and Spotify too, and on
YouTube podcasts. That's a single best idea