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A single best Idea quick one today, busy, busy day. I'll be with Bob Michael of JP Morgan hit a wonderful Bloomberg conference this after and I'm really looking forward to that. It's made easier because Michael has been so right about yields coming in. I released today my chart of the year for twenty twenty four. It's out on Twitter on LinkedIn. I got to figure out how to make it prettier, but there it is, and it's what I least expected. Last year, I did not participate full
disclosure in a bond bow market. We came from a crushing negative six standard deviations. That's a medical chart, folks, the carnage in the bond market, negative six standard deviations in the Bloomberg Corporate Series total return series, and we come up not quite halfway back to the nirvana of the great moderation. I did not see this coming. It is my chart of the year. Look for that. I'll do it, you know more here through November and into
December as well. We had a spectacular bond show. Today we're going to focus on single best idea and what you're focused on, not McDonald's, not Boeing, maybe earning season in place Microsoft, the thirtieth Apple and Halloween. You know, we'll have to see how technology does. But you got to be in the market to play. Who else to talk to but Robert Dahl of cross Mark.
It does not pay over the long term. If you have no information to be out of stocks. Stocks beat most other major asset classes most of the time. That's the starting point. Then you can get more sophisticated after that. But look, we're always scared market. Stocks in particular love to climb a wall of worry. Yes we're worried about elections. Yes we're worried about earnings. Yes we're worried about evaluate valuations, we're worried about the fit, all kinds of things, not
to mention the geopolitical issues. But you've got to be invested if you're going to make those long term returns. Notwithstanding that long term comment that of Costin and I are making about valuation.
Starting point, Bob doh, they're talking, and that question was off of the debate off of Golden Sechs David Conston looking out ten years for some mediocre returns. Doll agrees with Coston and Ardnny writing a note last night really pushing against the Golden Sechs thesis, looking for a roaring twenty twenties, and at the end of the note he says, can he dare predict a roaring two and thirties? We will get both mister Coston and mister Yardnny on surveillance
as their schedules permit. Always a good day when Francis Donald darkens the door. Here at our World headquarters, fifty ninth Street at Lexington Avenue, Francis Donald with RBC Capital Markets. All Paul wanted to do was talk to about Montreal. I mean, she is Canadians, and we covered that Canadians. Are we building Here here's Francis Donald on what you're worried about the nation's debt and deficit.
I can't believe we don't talk every single day about federal spending. It has been so extraordinarily disruptive to every single economic model that exists, and it has changed the way that we have to evaluate the cycle. But problematically, we see these deficits rise and spending increase. But net interest spending is now larger than defense spending. And if we're spending government money and it's going to pay treasury holders outside of the United States. That's not helping everyday Americans.
It's not boosting growth, and it's not actually inflationary either. So it isn't just about the amount of government spending, which is just chaotic in terms of how it's changing the way the economy operates. It's where it's going and defense, net interest spending, even entitlements, is not going to be the juice that fuels this extended, continuous, resilient aggregate economy.
Francis Donald RBC, what are we doing here at Single Best Idea? Joe Eisenthal, Tracy Alloway out with a new restructured od Lots podcast, David Gura doing the Big Take podcast. These are longer ten to fifteen twenty minutes. Everybody's overwhelmed with ten fifteen twenty minute podcasts. Single Best Idea is a quickie three, four, five, top seven minutes with some of the best voices that we have. We hope you listen and please subscribe to it. Tell your friends about
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