Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news, single best idea on Apple podcasts, on YouTube podcasts as well. Thrilled with that. I'm late to the party, you know, I just you know. I got a briefing Friday from a senior guy at Westwood One and it was just simply a podcast walkthrough, and I really didn't realize YouTube is really beginning to do well with podcast distribution. So good morning to that. I got to look that up. We'll have much more on that this busy week as well. Of course, the
Fed on Wednesday. As I said last week, something changed in the air Thursday, and I've never seen the balance between twenty five and fifty bases point a quarter point inter straight cut, a half point inter straight cut, and the endecision, the uncertainty Doctor Wang and A Wong and Bloomberg really led on this. I give her great credit. She hit a bar chart out that was just completely
unusual in the history of the FED. So we got through the weekend and we had the Wallstreet Journal had an article the ft, had an article this, that and the other, and very clearly on a Monday morning, we had the bond market showing price up, yield down, and lower yields, particularly with a two year yield breaking down to a new low. And then at six thirty New York time to borrow the phrase, all hell broke loose.
William Dudley, the former president of the New York Fed, writing for Bloomberg Opinion, put out a blistering note saying he supports a fifty basis point rate cut always on surveillance. We have the privilege of these guests, William Dudley, right now on fifty basis points.
I think what's essentially happened is the change expectations last week with those two articles that came out on the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, sort of suspicious article because they basically reopened the possibility of fifty when that was sort of getting closed off. Since that time, we haven't had any you know, FED intervention in any way that's visible. So it seems at least that the FED is comfortable with the shifting expectations away from twenty
five to fifty. So I don't think, you know, as time passes, I think what's going to happen is we're going to continue to price more in the direction of fifty.
In a multiple meeting sense, of three more meetings this year, wrapped around the presidential election. They literally meet the day after with an announcement. The FED decides two days after the November fifth election. Part of this in with the analysis, of course, the analysis of Bloomberg is how do I not lose money in the stock market? How do I buy bonds where price goes up yield goes down? How do I buy foreign exchange? What do I play in
the dollar? What does the litmus paper the foreign exchange system mean? Paul Sweeney paying under three dollars a gallon for the for his it's not a bell. What's the I can't remember. I can't remember what card is it Paul has? But anyways, you know, the gas is coming down, commodities are coming down. It's all this market squirrel of the elites. Bill Dudley was iconic out of Berkeley at Golden Sachs and with the New York Fed of always
watching the broad spectrum of the American economy. Maybe with that responsibility on the island of Manhattan, of realizing it's not just about Manhattan. Bill Dudley, on the FED and the poor.
Well, I actually think the priory motivation for the interest rates cut is the deterioration out for low and modern income workers.
We start to think about the you know, the consumer spenning reports have gotten recently. It's all about stress at the low end, and I think that's what's motivating the FED to cut rates more quickly. I think they're definitely taking that into consideration.
Bill Dudley. There the I should say, singing from the same hymnal Jerome power, that they look at all Americans. Finally, on this communication exercise, just some inside baseball, the Bank of England has visible descent, acrimony and good quality, good cheer. I should say about descent argument, and that the Fed no one descents well. Bowman descended a number of meetings ago, but it was sort of kind of like descent. Basically,
nobody's descentant. You can't figure out what they're doing besides this idiotic analysis of the FED speeches the minutes, and that maybe Chairman Powell speaks like a Jackson hole and clarity is assumed, or maybe there's smoke signals from selected media. Bill Dudley on the smoke signals.
This is sort of awkward and you really shouldn't be communicating through these sort of articles in such a subtle way that some people get it and some people don't. That doesn't seem to be very fair for people to get the right signal from the FED. I think what basically happened was the issue of twenty five versus fifty was getting sort of closed off as you approached the
blackout period. Coll didn't want it to be closed off because he's actually thinking pretty strobably about fifty basis points, and this was the way to keep it open. And I think what's happened as people have reflected on a bit more, the logic for fifty has become very compelling to people, and that's why I think that's what the Fit's going to do at this meeting this week.
Bill Dudley there just a generous amount of time with us today after his market moving essay for Bloomberg Opinion. We will go to Wednesday that fed to size. I look for our coverage. My people haven't even briefed me yet on who we have, but I'm sure it'll be just as good as what we had last time around. Great conversation wrapped around the announcement and then on to the press conference, and after the press conference, some good work.
I hope Jeff Rosenberg at Black Rock shows up always as after the press conference guest of what the bond market thinks of the FED action. We're out at YouTube, not only YouTube podcast, but subscribe to Bloomberg podcasts at YouTube. That's the best way to get us on your commute,
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