Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. A single best idea and to give you a window into my single best idea today is the Bloomberg message screen this morning at eight thirty one lit up like a candle. Every inflation reports important, some are more important than others. And then with the government shut down, with the dearth of data, Cameron christ was brilliant where he said, look, they just
dropped zero's into some of the unknown unknowns. The uproar that Paul Sweeney and I saw after the inflation report, the disinflation report was truly extraordinary. I got a blistering note in from David Rosenberg who believes in disinflation. Anna Wong agrees with David Rosenberg. She was very nuanced. We had six seven, eight wonderful guests in today and along of Bloomberg Economics linking this inflation report into the labor economy, well, I think that.
There is an underlying weakness in the labor market. I think so Tom productivity boom happens when you have revenues still rising and the micro level and the macro level GDP will be strong in the first quarter. We know that the shutdown, the rebounds from the shutdown is going to going to boost first quarter GDP by about two percentage point, yet the hiring is close to zero. That means productivity is going to be growing at maybe three percent in the first quarter of next year. So I
think that's what you're saying. You can have a week labor market while you have a productivity boom. And I think I think that a weak labor market and a strong economy, those two narrative can go in parallel.
Animong there talking about the surely the dynamics to pushing the pull of how we come to a belief on our economic future. Again, raging debate about this inflation report with all the knock on effects of a shutdown just as a one off Stephanie Roth nailed this this morning in the heat of it at eight thirty two. Airlines with huge disinflation into those statistics and other things, frankly showing a persistent inflation. Some of the shelter and medical
costs would be highlighted. They're all much more on it over the next twenty four hours with Michael McKee's a leadership and our team in Washington. Again Ana Wong linking this into FED policy in the Great American experiment.
The very reason why we're not seeing inflation is because the consumers are in trouble. The labor market weakness is real, and consumers are feeling pinched. That's why firms have been losing pricing power. So I think that trend will go on for another six months or so, and then after the tax season, as consumers have more money in their pocket, maybe a couple thousand more, there you might see some of this disinflationary pressure slowing.
The word that I use on this, and she alluded to it there. Doctor Wong was discussing the ambiguity the outcome of a certain trend. So if we have disinflation, if we have a quote unquote weaker consumer, if prices come down, what does it mean Is that good? Is it bad? Coloring all of what we do at surveillance To borrow a phrase from doctor Wong Chicago, is about price theory and the ambiguous outcomes that are out there.
Reason enough to stay with us. I looked it up on the Bloomberg Eco Goo January ninth and on the January thirteenth to get some clarity on the data before that important January FED meeting on Podcasts are on Apple or on Spotify. On YouTube podcast single, best Idea,