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Best Idea, the single best idea Today were really interesting conversations John Farrow with the former Vice President of the United States, mister Pence on his boss, mister Trump of a few years ago. In a lengthy conversation with the Mayor of New York that was just electric about the tensions of the nation, the tension of New York City with the Trump administration. We did look at the equity
markets and the cross asset markets. Jeffrey U of B and Y really quite good visiting from London was Ender Sheets of Brown University and Morgan Stanley Ander Sheets on the moment at hand.
I think what is challenging is that if we look at trying to quantify that question, can we come up with indicators to give us a better than average odds of thinking about short term direction. I think what you find, or what we found, is that those indicators work well or better under fear. Under extreme fear, you just your previous guests referred to kind of April second, you can find signals that work on average more often than not under extreme fear to give you short term buy signals.
It is very hard we have been unsuccessful, much less successful to give you sell signals. It's much harder to call tops. It's much harder to find indicators that successfully do that.
To link the mathematics of Wall Street in the moment, that was absolutely brilliant, folks. I can't say enough about how systems function and bets and probabilities function better with fear in the market. We're not there now, the Vicks under sixteen, it's just not there. And the answer is it's way harder to do the prediction game right now. Inder sheets of Morgan Stanley, Julian Emmanuel have evercore Isi looking at these equity markets that refuse to go down.
None of them are out there at the moment, which is why again it's such a challenge here and why frankly, stocks have become as expensive as they are the rebound from that sentiment trough in April because we knew there wasn't going to be recession. We still don't think there's a recession. We do think that there's a slowdown that continues in the second half. The second is what we would call them uncooperative. Fed by uncooperative, we mean hiking. Look,
they're not going to hike. There's no inflation reading we can see in the next several months, however high where they will hike. They may cut less, but they're not hiking. The third would be longer term yield spiking. Let's face it, the ten year yield, it's four thirty every day of the week for the last two years, and that's how it is. And that's a good thing, and that's part of why investors have had enough confidence to bid up stocks.
And then the last one is the one that we think that eventually will end the bullmarket cycle, and that's a period of fomo and capital markets activity. Every single bullmarket has that in the late stages, and.
We saw that again today with Kellogg's. We learned that John Tucker liked apple jacks as a child. I never liked you like it. I never liked ap you liked apple jacks. I never liked apple jacks. It was a tortured childhood. My sister liked tricks. I don't think Kellogg's. I don't think owns tricks. It is single best idea. Thank you for listening across the nation on Apple podcasts, Spotify as well and on YouTube podcasts. This is single best I do