Single best idea, and today was an extraordinary day on Bloomberg's surveillance. Our team just did a great job of eclectic guess We finished strong with the elliot Ackerman in celebration of his new book twenty fifty four with James Travetis. I'll have a lot more to say about that. I'm thinking in April or may I actually try to read the books that I'm big on, and I'll have to wait through twenty fifty four about the tensions that are
military faces. But today was wonderfully eclectic in equities. Tony Dwyer was with us with a broad view of the linkage of recession and those fears to tepid participation inequities. Away from mag seven there were all sorts of others, but what we really had was dueling quants. I can't
say enough. I'm not going to go into it here because we're trying to keep this podcast tight, but I can't say enough about the development of modern quantitative academics, which came out of Imperial College and London with Paul Wilmot, with all sorts of workout of other institutions, including foundational work at Princeton and particularly Andrew Lowe l Andrew low
Up at Massachusetts Institute of Technology. We are thrilled to bring you today Katherine Kaminski at Alpha Simplex out of the MIT combine, but first Amy Wu Silverman of RBC, out of the Princeton QUANDT combine. These people are wicked smart. They're the ones that got the A in your math class. And the answer is they really try to devolve the complexities of the Greek letters and what are called cross moments down to a mere mortal conversation like you can
digest on Bloomberg's surveillance. We digressed with Amy Wu Silverman, and of course we looked at her cross moments and bitcoin.
The really interesting thing I would say about bitcoin, because you know, you can't dabble in volatility without dabbling and crypto a little is the This has historically been a risk acid correlation that's actually been positive, even though it's been made out not to be. However, we are actually
seeing that correlation decline. So if you look three years ago, the correlation between just the simple equity market and bitcoin was fairly positive and it is still positive, to be clear, but it's actually come in a lot and so it may actually begin to be behaving in the inflation hedge slash equity hedge that it was purported to be in the beginning.
Amy was Silverman there with RBC on bitcoin, and of course we did talk to her about the broader equity market and some of the oddities out there, particularly the mass speculation and options in option day trading. I guess it's speculation, or maybe it's almost like the roulette wheel at a casino. Katie Kaminski is with Alpha Simplex, and the heart and soul of what they do, which I'm familiar with, is trend following. This is a cottage industry which goes back a solid forty years, much of it
out of the greater New York City area. And the idea here is not so much to catch the knife in the dark. The idea here is not to get right on the bottom of the trend going up or the top of the trend going down, but rather just to find the trend and monitor it as you invest, and not day trading, but invest out weeks, quarters, in months. Katie commencing, of course, looking at this extraordinary bull market here she is on the quants, the cross moments of our equity market.
When you look right now at where equities have moved, the turning point was in October and it's been I mean, look at S and P. It's up almost twenty five percent since October, so pretty much over any window where you measure the strength of the trend, you're seeing a pretty strong signal that we're going straight to the moon. And so I think that's where, you know, I'm surprised
at how incredibly resilient this market has been. If you told me in January that February is going to be as amazing as it was, I would have not believe you.
Katiekiminski there, and I really want to talk with Alpha Simplex, and I really want to talk for a moment here about the underlying here in the Bloomberg terminal. All of this came out of really a bunch of really really smart people working off Sun Microsystems Spark stations way in the back. It wasn't PCs and decad Wang and you know what Microsoft did with Intel and all that. It
was more sophisticated right from the get go. And it involves Sun microsystem I can't remember the name midframe computers I think is what they were called, but they did it off Spark station. What Mike Bloomberg and Tom Sekunda did to bring some of those mathematical dynamics over to the Bloomberg terminal was at the time, and I remember
this clearly nothing short of an act of God. They basically took high powered Sun Microsystem's work and brought over those chart dynamics so you could establish a trend for those of you that have a Bloomberg. For those of you that want to get a Bloomberg, one of the major major reasons is what's called stochastic analysis, but far far more importantly, and you know I'm on this. I think if Chris Verona's strateigue, it's the same way we are into trend based following. And you do that with
moving averages. You do that with all sorts of other technical studies, much of them founded by a guy named Wells Wilder and brought forward in the quantitative finance space of people at Princeton and people at MIT like Amy wou Silverman and Katie Kaminski. You can do all that on the Bloomberg. Check it out. This is single best idea, And don't forget you can see us on Apple car Play. It's really working out the Bloomberg Business app. It's free,
you go there. It's safer and better is Apple, says Apple, and we were thrilled by the numbers. I actually got brief done it this morning. I was like, really, sixty nine nations are listening to us on Apple car Play and on YouTube. We're thrilled by the international coverage and of course across the nation on YouTube. Search Bloomberg Podcasts and you'll find us there. Seven to ten for Wall Street Time again, Bloomberg Surveillance, an Apple CarPlay, and on YouTube