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It is surveillance. Single best idea and the best idea today was to get to the March twentieth FED meeting. Of course, of the jobs report. We've got that on Friday. A lot of economic data this week, but clearly jobs report front and center. What's interesting here in the last number of weeks with his boom inequities, what a moonshot
on Nvidia today as well to open up trading. And the basic idea is, well, the FED talk, the parlor talk that's moved aside as we've all been shocked by the success in American equity, is the success in American technology. We focus back on the FED today and I want you to listen to This is from Nourro Rabini, Professor Emeritis at NYU. And what's so important here is this was the most optimistic Nora Rabini Damian Sasa hour and I've heard in ages.
And I would say that paradoxically, the biggest risk today to the market is actually is a case of no landing where growth could continue to be above potential. And why it's going to be inactive for the markets because if growth remains above potential. The FAT is not going to cut rates starting the middle of the year, is not going to cut rates three times this year. They could cut on it two one, maybe even zero, and I would say, paradoxically, the best news for the economy
maybe the worst use for the market. So we've gone from hard landing to bumpy to soft to maybe no landing.
Nor Rabini mega threats. This is wonderful and readable book. What are coming on here, folks is simple. The one single word is ambiguity, and that if you get resilient rates, you can cut both ways. I guess if rates go up, that's bad for all of us because things are more expensive than nominal rates higher supposedly the inflation adjusted rate is higher. But also maybe rates go up because the economy is better than expected. And the keyword is ambiguity.
I can't say enough about that. I would pull that all the way back to in the media macroeconomic blah blah blah, which typically is not founded on microeconomic foundations, or just simply have you done your microeconomics to enrich your study of the bigger picture. Trust me, somebody like Nora Orbini has done that. So the number one thing I would say in this study is ambiguity is absolutely
a front and center. Now, I want to bring that over to one of our other guests today, Jim Bianco's in Chicago, hugely read, particularly out on social media, real LinkedIn presence as well, and Jim Bianco holistically bringing in what I talk about economics, finance, investment, and international relations. And what's so important about mister Bianco's work is so when he makes a statement, he monitors it and stays with it. Tell the facts change, and then Jim Bianco changes.
Nine months ago, a year ago, Jim Bianco said, you know, the disinflationary tendency out there may not happen, and he was one of the first people to call for higher resilient rates or even that they would move higher from the trend at the time that was down. A lot of people have joined Jim Bianco with that now and that goes back to the ambiguity and what doctor Rubini talked about, which is the idea, if we get a Jim Bianco resilient rate, what does that mean for our
real GDP? And if you had on inflation, what does that mean for our top line nominal GDP? Our animal spirits. Here's Jim Bianco.
Yeah, it's on my headstone right now, because I've got three percent on inflation, two and a half percent on nominal GDP, two and a half percent on growth real growth, three percent of inflation, five and a half on nominal GDP, and ultimately I think that that's where interest rates are going to go. It's to five and a half percent. It's on my headstone that everybody's freaking out that the rates could go that high. I think they can and
they won't break anything if they get that high. That's the part that everybody seems to miss about that call.
Jim Bianco there talking with us earlier today, really spirited conversation. Of course, all of that's out on Apple CarPlay on YouTube. Thrilled to the result. This is a big experiment. I mean, a fossil like me. I mean, I remember when the world stopped for gun smoke, you know, on Thursday night. Forget about that. YouTube's the modern thing. We're going there out on Bloomberg Podcasts and with Jim Bianco there, and he's been right. Rates are resilient. Rates are higher the
ten year inflation adjusted yield as a measurement. I use one point eight eight percent. If we have a high or more resilient economy and more resilient rates, isn't that good? And that's the arch social question tying in what doctor Rubini's talking about with new optimism and what Jim Bianco's talking about. And again, as Paul Sweeney has said, you have to go back to say the senator from Massachusetts, Senator Warren who's saying, wait a minute, a better economy
forming jobs is bad. And that's the arch conundrum that we face. There's no question about this. We are thrilled with this new effort. It is surveillance single best idea. That's you know, the sellside by Hotel Quick, Dana Telsey, what's your single best idea? Okay, that's where it comes from. But for us, it's the enriched ideas of all of our guests here across economics, finance, investment, and international relations.
Don't forget Live seven to ten am. Bloomberg Surveillance, Tom Keen and Paul Sweeney and we're out to you on Apple CarPlay the Bloomberg Business app. It's free. And this thing YouTube, Go to Bloomberg Podcast. You going to YouTube instead of searching for Taylor Swift. You search for Bloomberg podcasts and we come up there with a big white screens surveying, So that's how you find this, and we're really humbled by how it's growing. We hope to do this daily for you. Surveillance single best idea