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Single best idea on the slowest week of the year. Well, maybe the last week of December's the slowest week of the year, or maybe it's the last week of August. Whatever, it's not this year. After the Powell speech, and it was an extraordinary speech. I've gone back and reread it twice. Thank you Claudia Simon. She said time shut up and go back and read it twice. I did, and I
love the last paragraph. We featured that today on Lessons Learned the humility of this crazy economics, finance, investment and international relations. We do. But it was an eventful Monday today, no question about that. Thank you to Jumani Brasacchi of Horizons out of Dubai. Look for that on Bloomberg Television and on her Lebanon really talking with some emotion about the view south from Beirut towards Israel and of course all that Israel's experiencing as well. Ethan Brown are from
Tel Aviv helping us out this morning. And foreign exchange on the new week Dollar. It's always good to talk to Daryl Meyer. He's a the HSBC here and the week Dollar it's weird.
The market seems to want to dislike the dollar, right, and so for a period they said, well, the reason to dislike the dollar is the US is setting to recession, and they said, well, actually no, it's not. Now the reason to dislike the dollar is because US setting for assault landing, and it feels like it's gotten beaten up the last couple of months. You know, I think it's ready for a bounce. I think it's ready for consolidation.
You know, we've constructed a narrative that fitted the price action, but really, is the US economy in such bad shape? I'm not convinced. And then I always come back to the question is like, I'm going to joke to you, why will I like you in Ireland? But why do people like the euro? And you kind of go, well, it's not the dollar, but I think that only gets you so far right, And if you actually go why why do I like the Euro? It feels like a pretty short conversation. So I think that's also part of
the Russian off. Why you can get back to one of five and you're a dollar.
Deren Mara, there, I agreed with Jeff for you of Bny melon there on that target of euro weaker euro stronger dollar migrating from one to eleven, one twelve to a weaker euro. One oh five is where those two are looking and of course always open to at debate. That's what makes the market go. I would note d x Y the Blended Large Country Index. A traditional index goes one oh five, four, three, two one. A break
below one hundred would be a huge deal. I don't have the BBDXY the Bloomberg Dollar Index in front of me, but it's a much better series, including em including China. It's a much richer set of data. Look for the Bloomberg dx Y bbdx Y in the terminal. It's out there publicly as well as a very important series. Every once in a while, how someone walks in the door with incredible accomplishments in a topic that we all feel
so certain about. Brad Case out of the yel combine of Schiller, GutsMan and others economists chief economist Fanny May for years. He's now working for some people Middleburg communities, trying to do rental real estate in a more constructive way. We talked about that, but he was devastating, and I think one of the great canards that's out there, that real estate is a way better investment than a blended stock market average. This is maybe the important, most important
conversation of the week, and it's only Monday. Brad Case on stocks or real estate.
It turns out that what's most important is that when you buy a house, you have to put a gigantic amount of money into an asset that appreciation is very low. If you instate, you rent a place, whether it's a house or an.
Apartment, you can go invest somewhere else.
You put that money into the stock market, and that is a much better investment. That the total returns on real estate are much much lower than in the stock market. And I've actually done this analysis with data going back to the early nineteen seventies. Most of the time people are better off renting than owning in terms of building wealth.
I can't say enough the importance of that. I also can't say enough how so many people disagree violently with brad Case over that people forget about the leverage taken within a mortgage structure of housing and the risks at intel. Many of the people have not enjoyed real or nominal house price decreases and a lot of people, and particularly the marketing of real estate that I see both institutionally in retail. It forgets the fees along the way, the
costs along the way. The tex is we need a maroon carpet in the family room and the rest of it. What should we do with the lawn deer? Maybe you're ranking that conversation up over the Labor day weekend to try and improve the man's bradcase of Middleburg. They're just absolutely brilliant. Couple of program notes, Apple CarPlay, Android Auto. They're out with new software soon. I don't know when that happens, but soon. And on YouTube, subscribe to Bloomberg Podcasts.
You go to YouTube search Bloomberg Podcasts, you subscribe, and we're there every morning. We're working on a new checklt where Lisa Mateo's front and center, which is probably a smart strategy. We'll see on that. But answer is YouTube is really working for us. Good morning on Bloomberg Radio Bloomberg eleven to three to zero in New York and Washington is well. Wonderful FM signal in Washington and coming September third in Boston, a ginormous signal ninety two nine
FM in Boston on Apple Podcasts. This is single best idea seven