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Joining us now.
Michael Darta, Always on the Vineyard, forever looking north to Fenway. Michael Darta, Chief Economists, Rough Capital Partners. Michael from a GDP standpoint, does a shutdown?
Is it Germaine?
It really depends how long this goes on, Tom. You know, hopefully calmer and cooler heads can prevail in Washington, so we don't end up, you know, weeks and potentially months on end, because the longer this goes on, the more disruptive it will be to the economy into the macro data, which we now don't have. Right, we're kind of flying blind into the end of the week here, and we're missing some pretty important necro reports.
So what do you do?
You know, then, start is so good at this folks linking economics into investment. If you're blind, Michael, what do you do with a trading strategy?
Well, luckily we still do have some private sector reports that are coming out. So we got some data from ADP yesterday which was not very good. I've got some data from the Institute of Supply Management, and so abstracting from that, you know, we can still construct running forecast estimates for how the economy's doing. And interestingly enough, I mean, the Atlantic beed tracking data for the third quarter is
really still holding in there at pretty robust levels. For real final sales to the private sector sector still running pretty close to three percent for Q three. It would be completely shocking if we were actually in an environment of negative job growth with the real economy humming along
at three percent. So I would take all of this and take a bit of a step back, and you know, I think these jobs numbers are probably weak more in a temporary way, unless the economy just goes off a cliff in the fourth quarter.
You know, Michael, you mentioned you referenced the ADP data yesterday. I know people take that with a grain of salt, but boy, that was kind of startling there. A negative number there for the month and a negative revision for the prior month. What'd you take away from that?
Yeah, definitely was not good data. You know, at a time when private payroll growth has slowed very sharply, with quite significant downward revisions over the course of the last year through March. I think there's a you know, there's a bigger focus on these weak data points. And within ADP we saw three down months, three negative job growth months out of the last four, so that's not a positive. And there was also some weakness that showed up in
the conference board data. You ask people about jobs being hard to get or plentiful, that tends to correlate with the unemployment rate pretty well. So that deteriorated again in the most recent reading. So it does look like there is some lingering softness in the labor market. The question is is that going to intensify or is it more temporary and likely to rebound. And Tom, I think that's where you bring in the financial markets, which are quite optimistic.
And you know, you hear that old refrain all the time that you know, the economy is not the stock market. Well, actually the economy is the stock market. If you take a look at the data. Equity markets are not perfect predictors, but they do need growth rate of real and nominal GDP by about one quarter, and so you know easy financial conditions, the Fed continuing to eat He's monetary policy.
I think you want to be a little bit more optimistic than pessimistic in terms of where the labor market is as we move into next year.
Acrastination. This morning, Michael Darty with this rough capital thrilled he could.
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Michael.
I look at that then, and I look at the fold over the green spanning. An idea that the equity market really matters is the equity market is an expectation vehicle.
How far out is expecting right now?
Yeah?
I mean the equity market. Look, Tom, you know it's volatile. Equity investors are not always correct, and with any market you can have a sudden, abrupt and unexpected turn of course. Right, all of that said, investors are looking ahead. And if you look at how the correlations tend to run from markets into data, markets lead data lags and on average, you know, the equity market leads by about three months.
If you bring the credit markets into the mix and you look at overall financial conditions, you know, the lead is maybe six or seven months at best. So you know, we're not able to forecast really long horizon situations here you're using these market based indicators, but at least over the next one or two quarters, you know, I think, especially now with the shutdown, these financial variables are pretty.
Important, Michael.
Looking at the consumer, the retail sales, other metrics like that, the consumer seems to be more than hanging in there, actually doing quite well.
Does that surprise you at all?
Yes?
And no.
I mean, you know, we're talking about the equity market, and you know the fact that household net worth has risen pretty dramatically. Now the worry is that, oh, that's concentrated on the higher end, but the higher end is driving a very large and growing share of total consumption.
And even with these weak jobs numbers, the unemployment rate is only pushed up a little bit, you know, it hasn't pushed up in a dramatic fashion, and so you have still essentially a fully employed economy, very high asset prices, so household balance sheets are in quite good shape, and that's underpinning the you know, the consumer and you know, the tracking estimates for Q three around three percent, So that does not look like a recession.
I look, Michael, at where we are, and it comes back to something quaint. It's really falling. It's fallen off the radar use of cash. Okay, I got nominal GDP. They're going to deliver better than good revenue growth once again. Oh, earnings are going to be terrible. Yeah, okay, Michael, earnings will be okay. Let's say and margins. Do you see a use of cash that just continues to drive this bullmarket forward.
Well, that's really the key, Tom. If top line growth is you know, looks Q three looks like it's about six percent. But even if we take that down by a percentage point and top line is compounding at five and companies are profitable, you know, and corporate profits have been strong, that is not going to sustain itself for any period unless you're getting positive hiring at the same time. So companies will do different things. They can buy backstock,
they can invest. You know, we might see some lift in capex, but they'll be hiring as well. So you know, if you have top line growth, and you have corporate profits, you're going to have employment as well.
So this is something I think people have trouble with, Michael. And let's not get into like nominal GDP, animal spirits. Let's just say, is inflation good for Procter in gamble? Is inflation good for you know, name another you know, Church and Dwight, I mean, you know arm and Hammer and all that. Is inflation good for basic companies?
Well? Tom, you know it's a good question. I mean, you do want some corporate pricing power, but the flip side of that is costs. Right, So if you do end up in an environment where inflation is high and volatile, and then you have the central bank that has to iron that out and restrain the economy, that's not good for anyone.
Okay, then carry it forward, Mike.
I don't mean to interrupt, but this is this is darta is central Carry it forward. If I go from a FED moodeling two percent out to two point x percent, what does it do to those companies? Do they see wage lift?
Yeah?
And I think you are, you know you are seeing that. You know, nominal wages and real wages are growing. So that's consistent with the real economy expanding. Inflation is still above the fedce target. But I think, you know, an in an environment where inflation is trending at around three you know, that can still be a very strong environment for corporate profits if the economy is you know, staying out of recession, and that's you know, I think that
is likely with the FED easing monetary policy. They've already taken rates down one hundred and twenty five basis points and with inflation expectations moving up forty to sixty basis points over that period, real rates have fallen about two hundred basis points. So the FED is definitely removed quite a bit of restraint from its policy, so the top line should hang there. I do think, you know, I do worry about the FED getting back to two percent
inflation on a reasonable timeline. If we're still stuck at three percent inflation over the course of the next two years, and that's part of the Fed's forecasts, boy, that's a long overshoot seven years, So I worry a little bit that that bleeds into credibility. You know, the administration really wants FED to ease because they want lower market interest rates, but you know, you're not going to get lower market interest rates of inflation expectations continue moving off, so the
FED needs to stay credible here. I think, you know, four to five percent nominal, that's the sweet spot You'll have corporate pricing power, Inflation won't be too high long rates will be at reasonable levels.
There you go.
Bottle that, folks.
Michael Darter, thanks so much, rough Capital.
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Our next guest on short Notes, we are honored to have with us Ian Bremmer. Of course, he has changed the discussion of international relations at worldwide. We're going to have an extended conversation here for all of you across the nation. Good morning internationally on the Pacific rim on YouTube, and your evening is well. Ian, Let's talk about the international relations of a fractured America. What is the state of our State Department right now?
Well, the State Department, I mean, you know, at least you have someone who's quite capable that's actually running it. Having said that, USAID has been eviscerated, as you know, and the biggest concern among the professional diplomats I know, both in office now and also those that have left, is that countries around the world no longer believe the United States is reliable as an ally, that America's ward is no longer something that you want to count on.
The US is incredibly powerful. It's not in decline, but that what the US will do for you is not necessarily what it will say. And that's true on trade, it's true on collective security. It's true on the treatment of your citizens living in the United States or traveling to the United States.
These things can.
Change on a dime on the whims of the President and his top advisors, and that worries these country is a great deal.
That level of disengagement Ian, do you think that is reflective of this Republican Party?
When you say disengagement, I'm sorry, what do you mean by that?
No, just in the America first, a type of feeling within the Trump administration.
I think the Republican Party is completely loyal to Trump, and it doesn't really matter if a lot of them feel differently about his doing a deal with China on the Age twenty chips or coming to terms on TikTok. It doesn't really matter if he says Ukraine's not that important because it's an ocean away. Of course, a lot of Republicans historically disagree with that, They disagree with Trump
opposing free trade, but the population has changed. So first of all, there are a lot of people that really oppose a lot of neocons in the Republican Party that led to very expensive, very deadly failed wars, and there are a lot of traditional free trade Republicans that no longer have the support of the population in pushing for globalization and for taking tariffs down.
We're in a radically.
Different environment, right We have tariffs at one hundred level, historic highs, one hundred year highs, and we also have a president that's doing his damndest to reduce American security guarantees and commitments to other countries around the world, even making big questions about whether the US would stand up for Taiwan, for example, long term. So I mean, clearly a lot of Republicans quietly uncomfortable with that.
There's so many ways to go here, Ian Bremer, with this for an extended conversation.
With Eurasia Group. I know what people want to know. When's the next book?
Give me a date sometime next year.
Sometime next year, Like, that's good enough. Ian, I want to talk about Gaza. I want you to triangulate it with Qatar, the president's relationship there, maybe with this desire to win a peace prize and all that. How should
our listeners and viewers synthesize the cacophony of Gaza. I'm looking at a video in the Washington Post this morning, Greta Thunberg and others being the Israelis have taken over flotilla whatever, how does the and Bremer translate the horror of Gaza us through the American prism?
The two combatants have very little consequence for.
Continuing to engage in the fight.
It's been extremely hard to convince Israel that they should limit the warfare on the ground in Gaza or against the Axis of Resistance more broadly, because there have been no consequences for them doing so, and of course, because they're militarily and technologically dominant in the entire region. It's been extremely difficult to convince Hamas that they have to actually let the hostages go, which was Trump's only applause line in his fifty five minute speech at the UN
Nations General Assembly last week. Because they're terrorists, because there are a bunch of dead enders, and because they recognize that they face assassination kind of either way. And look, it's hard to put yourself in the position of what would create rationality among leadership of Hamas. But they're putting their own people at risk every day, and they have for years now. So in that regard, it's hard to maneuver much, though I think that there has been success
in putting a few small constraints on Israeli behavior. Trump had been indifferent to Israeli annexation of the West Bank, and he came out last week and said that they will not do that on the back of the UAE, saying that they would leave the Abraham Accords if the Israelis proceeded. Trump had been actively promoting the idea of removing.
Palestinians from Gaza.
In fact, he said as much when he was on stage with the King of Jordan a few months ago, and he's now shifted away from that to a plan that has been approved by the golf Arabs and by the Israeli Prime Minister that says that the Palestinians aren't going to be forced to leave that rather, they're going
to be able to stay in Gaza. And so, I mean, look, it's not stopping the war, and as long as Hamas refuses to release the hostages, I don't expect the war to end, even though I think it would be much better for Israel and everyone else involved.
If they would stop.
But I do think that we have a few guardrails, however limited today.
That we didn't have a week ago.
Ian Let's switch gears to another hot spot, which would be Ukraine. Is there any reason to believe that there is some type of peace process possible in the near intermediate term here?
I would say it's more likely that the.
Completely stalled offensive that Russia has had, it's been this grinding, virtually no territory being taken, massive casualties, particularly in terms of the Russian soldiers, over a million casualties in this war for Russia so far in three and a half years. It's a staggering number. It's hard to even imagine what
that means for society, but Putin doesn't care. It's hard to imagine that that's going to continue the way it has for the next six to twelve months, in part because it's going to be very difficult for Ukraine to continue to defend their territory and field the soldiers to do so over the coming year, but also in part because Trump.
Is angry about this.
He thought that he was going to leverage his relationship with you. However it existed into a ceasefire. He made Putin a lot of offers, ending sanctions and the like, and Putin said no, thank you, and has embarrassed Trump, has angered Trump, and Trump Trump is bringing it up. He never brings up his failures. He forgets about them. It's one of his political skills, not on Russia. And instead he's talking about providing extended range missiles to Ukraine
that could take out Russian energy capability. And he's privately pushing the Hungarians, the Turks, the Indians saying, you know, I want you to end your purchasing of Russian oil. He wasn't willing to do that a month ago. So that there is real movement here from President Trump himself to try to not just offer putin a care ineffectually.
It would also include some stick.
Doctor Reimer, let's finish up with this.
We had a riveting conversation with Edwinal Mullen at the Bloomberg Global Forum the other day.
He was just on the South China Sea.
Extraordinary the submarine secrets there, the Heinan, the island off China. I think Americans Ian are ignorant that Taiwan isn't one monolithic island. Explain to us the strategic realities for Americans of Kinmen and Matsu islands just off the coast of China. What are the immediate risks to those frontline islands in Taiwan.
Well, of course, China's ability if they wanted to engage in warfare with less consequence, taking those over or blockading those much easier, right and with very little ability for the Americans to respond or its Asian allies to respond militarily.
But nobody really believes near turn that's going.
To happen, in part because the United States is oriented to work with China on Taiwan. Look, Trump and Chizhinping had a phone call much anticipated last Friday, and the single thing that Trump most wanted, which he got was a nod from Xijin Ping on the US taking over TikTok with political loyalists installed in charge of it. And that's the thing that matters most to Trump. It allows him to undermine the free media, control the information space, and better ensure that he and his.
Advisors can control twenty twenty six and twenty twenty eight.
What the Chinese want is for Trump to back away and say that they oppose independence for Taiwan as Bush had President Bush had once before, and I think that Trump is oriented to provide that. Frankly, so, we're not heading towards escalation right now with the Chinese. We're actually heading towards both sides getting something that really matters to the individual leaders.
You mentioned. There was one final question. I got a ways to go here. Folks with Ian Bremer are always the case. You mentioned the collapse of US AID USAID. I've got family members abroad that say it's been devastating for Africa. Explain right now, at the beginning of this fourth quarter the impact of the lack of us AID.
The United States is the most powerful country in the world. It's the strongest economy by far, and the US has historically been doing the most in terms of providing aid to other countries and to the people in those countries that need it, whether they're suffering from malaria, whether they're vulnerable to HIV AIDS, whether they're start whether they're facing forced migration.
The US has done that directly.
It's also led the charge in doing that indirectly through American support for the United Nations and the organizations that it stands up, like the World Food Program, for example. The United States has decided that those things should no longer be priorities. That America first means that these other countries should have to make their own way, They should have to pay for themselves.
Now, the Chinese see this is a great opportunity.
In the same way that when the Americans cut back on visas, the Chinese immediately say we're going to make it easier for talented people to come. They won't be as attractive in terms of their aid. But if they are the lead power. I mean, they made up their dues, many of which were in arrears at the UN the Americans aren't paying. The Chinese said, okay, we'll pay some of ours now, so that they can put forward that they're the ones that are more accountable.
Look, if you think that only American hard.
Power matters, and maybe in the short term that's true, and you don't care very much about non Americans and don't think that they are as deserving or that we should take care of any of them, we don't have accountability.
Then it doesn't matter. But that's never been my view, and I think it's a mistake long term.
And thank you so much, doctor Bremmer, with you raise your group, and we thank him for his years of support of what we.
Do at Surveillance. Stay with us.
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Eleven thirty, nineteen.
Eighty, all of a sudden, we had federal funding gaps, and the Attorney General issued an opinion that the eighteen eighty four Anti Deficiency EC required shutdown. Joining us now Wendy Schuller, who knows all this from Brown university. So we shut down in nineteen eighty one. What's different now versus the early eighty one and nineteen eighty four shutdowns, Wendy, good morning.
Well, the biggest thing is the size and scope of the federal government. In Ronald Reagan argued that it was too big then, and we started the practice under Ronald Reagan really of big crs continuing resolutions where you'd wrap up all the separate appropriations bills and Reagan would have to sign or vito them. He famously shut the government down for a little while in eighty six eighty seven, also because he got this, you know, two thousand page
bill and said, what's in this bill? So we've seen that before, but the scope of the government was smaller, from everything from regulation to benefits or relationships to the individual voter in revital person in America. So the profound impact of a shutdown is so much larger. And that's why we have a partial shutdown. Tom, That's why you know, you and Paul know this is partial. The whole government isn't shutting down. They've learned to get around that by
designating essential services. You know, when New gaingers shut the government down in nineteen ninety five ninety six, there wasn't essential services.
It was just everybody was furloughed. Now they carve.
Out things like TSA, for example, a traffic controllers, the federal court system. So it's not as big a wide shutdown as it was forty years ago.
But the government is much bigger.
Quickly, or because Paul's got eight questions smarter than me when they is to cut to the chase. The heart of the matter is a political movement coming across the twentieth century that the federal government is bad.
Where did that come from?
Well, I mean, you want me to do this quickly.
You can go back to antipathy towards the federal government all the way to the Civil War to FD are the new deals, Southern resistance to civil rights. The bigger it grew, the more regulation, environmental protection, all sorts of regulation of people who believe that, like Jefferson and Madison, that the federal government should be small, limited in scope and purpose, grew to resent the power of the federal government.
And now we're seeing the flip side of that. The Republican president is exercising enormous federal power over both.
State governments, and individuals.
That's the Republicans and the conservative movement has always been the opposite, let's limit the government's power.
So what's interesting is when.
Jadevance talks about, you know, cutting jobs or furloughing or shrinking the size of the federal government, at the very same time, this federal government is exercising unprecedented power over states and individuals.
Wendy, President Trump is threatened to use this shutdown to actually fire federal workers.
Is that happening, Paul?
I think we're seeing really the cracks and protection, even though there's collective bargaining among unionized federal workers.
The cracks and the protection going back all.
The way to the Pendleton Act in eighteen eighty three, which is supposed to protect federal workers and Jimmy Carter's reforms in the seventies. But now we see that they are not very well protected. And you know, it's a big risk to fire.
Who are going to fire? Are you going to fire Park service workers?
We've seen that the Republicans from the West are not excited about that. That backfired on the Republicans in the nineteen nineties.
You know, who are you going to fire? Where do they live?
And what is the political disposition of the area that they live in, and then the services that they provide to people who voted for Donald Trump. So this is trickier, I think, to do it in a mass way than the Republicans right now.
Are letting on Here in New York City.
We got some news yesterday that's some funding for some infrastructure here in the Greater New York City area. The Gateway project in particular has been halted here. So what's the strategy behind some of these targeted funding? I guess reductions.
At the moment, the strategy looks fairly part of it.
You'd have to say that, you know, the Republicans have been saying that we spend too much money, So now President Trump can say, well, look, eighteen billion dollars, do you really need it?
New York State has what.
Almost a trillion dollar If not, if I'm not mistaken budget as a state, why can't they pay for it themselves?
But it looks like it's.
Targeting blue states, but blue states also tend to spend more on mass transit and infrastructure in in densely populated areas than other states.
So it's hard to figure out exactly how partisan. This is, but that's where we are. But it can always be reversed.
So you know, people say this is again Higee Jeffries and Chuck Schumer, both from New York.
But really it's a broader effort to tram.
The reliance of these states on federal dollars for things like mass transit and improving infrastructure bridges. I don't think it works in the end because these states also generate a lot of economic activity and tax revenue for the federal government.
Is there actually an on off ramp here for both sides that maybe just find some common question, thank you, thank you.
I do think I think there's an off ramp where the Republican leader John Thune, instead of saying, oh, we'll talk to you later, just keep the government open for seven weeks, which is what the Democrats used to do when they were in charge, he should say, we will vote on an extension of these tax subsidies for Obamacare premiums, which expired December thirty first and affect millions of people.
We will give you a vote, a scheduled vote, and if they if the Democrats can walk away with a scheduled vote on this question, knowing that they'll have access to pushing it on the floor of the Senate. Then I think they have enough cover to go back to the table and get the government back up.
Well, I look at the politics of this, and of course it's all finessing. Does a shutdown play into the election coming up next November or is it just so far distant in all of the.
Ancient history, Tom, I think that this shutdown plays into the elections we've got for governor in.
New Jersey and for Virginia. Those polls are tightening. You know, this is a way of mobilizing Democrats.
You know, we've been complaining that their Washington based leadership has done nothing to stop or fight or for Donald Trump. This is a way of galvanizing and encouraging those voters to get out to the polls for.
The Democratic candidates.
And it's a sort of a pseudo off, you know, mitchrum cycle that Democrats should do better.
So that's where the interest of the Democrats lie.
How long they can keep this going without hurting other parts of their constituency is the calculation that both Republicans and Democrats are trying to make right now.
Professor Shower hugely informative thank us so much. Learned a lot there, Wendy Schulders at Brown University.
Stay with us.
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Away from Baseball, the newspapers are swarnings.
All right, we're going to dive right into the tech job market, and there's there's kind of like growing divide in it. You have those with AI skills and those without. And the Wall Street journals like really gets into this, so they talk about the skills. Those at the highest level of skills they can get multimillion dollar pay packages. Those with okay MAAI savvy they can get about a million dollars a year. Job seekers are saying they just want someone to hire them and teach them on the job.
But what they're looking for is someone who can train AI models to do these patterns and direct predict outcomes. Right because some people have you know, AI experience. They get certifications and they're saying well that's not enough. You know, just because you know how to use chat GPT, it doesn't certify you as an AI expert.
I don't know what is an AI expert. This technology happened like fifteen minutes ago.
Yeah, yeah, yeah, they did. They need to train the AI models and to know how to do it. And it's a very intricate way that you have to know.
But it's a.
Small percentage of people with the gift of that current I'm going to say coding is an a.
It's a new technology.
What you know.
I hear from a lot of tech people. You know, they're they're like way smarter than me, but they just don't have employable skills.
I don't understand it now. It's moving super super quick.
So again, young people will figure it out.
They're good at that.
They're good at that.
They are Okay, So I want to stick with AI and see how it's impacting the music industry. Okay, this is interesting source of telling the Financial Times. You have Universal Music, Warner Warner Music, right, they know Taylor Swift, Kendrick Lamar, Coldplay, like those are all their artists.
They're nearing AI licensing deals.
They reportedly involved startups like eleven lab Stability AI, but even big companies like Google and Spotify. So they want to know how the labels license their songs for creating AI generated tracks, for training large language models.
They want to get paid, that's the bottom line.
So they want a payment structure that's similar to streaming, where you know, you play a song and that triggers this micro payment. So that's the whole battle in AI in the music space, and it's a really really big battle, and it's starting to come up a lot more nowadays, especially on Spotify. You hear AI just AI generated music pop up on Spotify nowadays.
But it's is it attributed to anybody that like is it?
It's saying here's a song by.
X, No, that's not and that's the thing, and that's the thing. So like YouTube has this thing that where they can identify where music is being used, so they're saying, maybe use something like that technology. But it's a long ways to go.
It's a lot tougher than just tracking radio. So it's a big deal. I don't understand it, but it's a big deal among music people.
They're like, oh sure, They're like they're fired up, they're very fired up.
I got it.
And then lastly, I want to talk about DC fans. So those listening in DC, they may have to find another way to watch Wizards Capitals games. There's an issue Monumental Sports Network. They went dark on YouTube TV, dizzy on Hulu plus Live TV distribution deals expired. You can still get it through Direct TV because they carry Monumental Sports Network. But I thought what was interesting is this whole issue about regional sports networks and how the difficulty that they're starting.
To baseball next season.
It's been a couple of seasons already with the regional sports, think hockey, think baseball, not so much the NFL, which is a national sport, but the regional sports really dependent upon regional sports networks. We have Yes Network here in New York. There's need send nessing up there in Boston. That was the backbone of the media rights fees for these teams, and that model is just it's broken permanently, and so now you got to find a substitute.
Its streaming going to be that substitute.
I don't know.
So there you go. Let's see is that it?
I mean, you're not concentrated because you're worried about the Yankees today.
I know, I know, but I can't at eight o'clock pm.
Yeah, that's yeah, I know.
When are they gonna learn and the kids can't watch school?
What?
Okay?
Six pm, I get it, it's clumsy. Yeah, seven, seven pm. The kids get to see the starter Pitchers for.
The fourth dting.
Yeah, they don't care. They don't care because more and would lease advertising dollars from the networks in that time.
Lisa mt tell the newspapers thank you so much.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.