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This is a joy.
What we did today is we're going on and getting all of our guests who when they were undergraduates it was twenty three below zero, like at Niagara University and they had to fight their way from the dorms over to class at eight oh two am for an exam.
Very true.
I was at rit I mean it was just this is Rochester, folks, Western New York.
It's right now. It's like it's like the second.
Week of March for me and Joe equivalent Joe, I saw I read as zero had you had a great summary one of the banks Bank of America, I don't know who, and basically they said, retail stepped in in the Trumpeton in Davos.
What does it mean to investors or to our confidence to invest in our four oh one k If it's just retail stepping in fear and missing out.
I mean they are stepping into and they're buying the dips. But you know, remember there's seven point seven trillion dollars sitting on the sidelin. It's not all retail institutions. But our clients are looking for those dips. Honestly, they're they're waiting for them, and they're stepping in and they're they're they're hitting the thing.
Or was it like this in the sixties or in the ears before?
I say, I don't know if it's a new thing.
I think there's some confidence out there that longer term, despite all the headlines, the dramas, what's happening in Washington, they like the companies, they believe in technology. They're spreading their risk around small caps. So I think it's a belief that despite Washington, the real economy is in good shape.
Paul, you told me to go into small lips. I didn't listen.
Now, So Joe, what we saw a little bit in twenty twenty five was as well as the US equity in that just did a lot of markets outside of the US did a lot better.
How do you think about the.
US versus non US these days? What are your clients telling you?
I mean, we still like the US. I think the US had an off year. It's it's kind of like, you know, the Boston Celtics, one of the greatest dynasties out there.
They don't win every year, but the UC economy.
It's part of our core portfolio holdings, the equities, but we do like overseas where there it's China, tech banks in Europe, defense plays in Europe, and South Korea, Japan. So the breadth of opportunities for retail institution investors has broughtened. So it's just not about the mag seven, it's not about the US equities.
It's broader and that's a good thing.
What are we doing in the bond market here, because again, twenty twenty five was a solid year for folks who held bond's high single digit total returns. How about twenty twenty six.
Twenty twenty six. We're shorter durations. We like corporate bunds. We think ten year yield. Our interest rate team is looking between four twenty five and like four point fifty four to seventy five, so a tight.
Range for the ten year yield.
You know that could change given with the Fed's next path for cutting rates. What's happening in Japan so there's a lot at stake there. Joe Quinnlin with.
This head in CIO market strategy at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank, as Alexis mentioned, your five thousand, four thirty four up twenty one dollars.
On gold pump. Let's go to gold.
I mean that then gold ripping, silver ripping, all the other precious metals ripping.
I mean who's buying all.
This stuff retail institutions and in particular central banks. So you are seeing some dollar the dollar hedging out for investors. So we think that's going to continue. Central banks are diversifying. We're seeing a lot of clients. That's one of the first questions I asked, how much gold should own? What else sho I own? Silver?
And so forth?
So that's going to continue. So and if you look at the grid, the build out that we need all these precious metals and base metals on top of the defense outlays, there's a lot of upside yet for commodities.
I mean, here's one of the issues. We were getting right smack into the teeth of earning season right now, twenty twenty five, solid solid earnings here a low double digit is the earnings out look for twenty six enough to support this market here.
Short answer is yes, longer answers.
Look what these companies are doing in terms of pivoting, using artificial intelligence, robotics, rejiggering their supply chains. You've got a good consumer behind them as well. So I think the earnings estimates double digits again this year will be supported by the US economy. It'll come up behind it. So and it's really the management of companies across the board that will help driving earnings well.
I mean, I guess a lot of that earnings growth is coming from, not surprisingly the big tech names, the MAGS seven if we want to use that nomenclature, or just just big tech in general. I guess big tech is going to lead us again in twenty six.
Or next week as well.
Yeah, or next week or this year, but not as much as last year. Big tech earnings your every year are coming down. But that's okay because the other parts of the market are coming up.
I mean, I mean Julian Emmanuel this morning, he's modeling right now and it's going to change, folks.
Ready.
Fourteen point four percent Marines growth is his model guest this morning.
Yep, unbelievable.
So what do we do here, to the extent we want to, I don't know, rotate out broaden trying to find some breath in this market.
What do you say, so you're suggesting to rotate from Nvidio and Microsoft exactly.
Maybe we've been looking at small cap for quite a while. We like to cycicles, whether it's financials, materials, metals, industrials, some of the old economy stocks that we were accustomed to.
They're becoming more.
Technology enablers and adopters and they're going to surprise folks to the opsite.
Kay Nixon was president when you walked into Mary Lynch Pierce Center and Smith Joe, let's cut to the chase here. How long does this sagin dance keep going? I keep I'm talking anamong was it yesterday? She's definitive And the answer is we got poping real GDP and massive pop penmenal GDP. Like the fourth of July, Does Joe Quinlan go into twenty twenty seven?
Yes, Tom, Because you know, the average bull market is typically five and a half years, so we're like not even three and a half years into this bull market. I see this in the twenty seven and twenty eight, right, because we have a lot of just because just see Tom Davis is our economy right now is expanding faster than China's.
And so in the earnings we go back to the ball. It's supportive that.
So we've got a lot of energy economy, the stock market, the animal spirits that takes us into twenty security.
So I studied this at Fordham University, which focus is expert on this in international economics. Okay, so we have a nominal g I did this with Darter Paul the other day. We have a nominal GDP popping like China. Yes, but we don't have the same economics structure as well. Do we embed a permanent inflation because we don't have the supplied demand dynamics of a seven percent nominal GDP.
I think the inflation number of times closer to three percent as opposed to two percent. But I don't think it has to bust through four or five percent in that sense. And that's the sweet spot. Nominal growth seven eight percent, that's perfect for earnings. A lot of companies can do a lot. It's not American move to Beijing.
I'll get one more in here.
Joe what's the discussion you have with the Maryland ba A private bank clients about alternative investments, private equity, private credit, hedge funds, and what's what's an allocation that you think is reasonable for I mean, more of.
Our clients are looking at that, particularly private credit, private equity. They like what they see the opportunities. There's a lot of good companies that are not public good tradit, so they want to have access. But they're moving slowly. They're moving slowly. They still looking at bond stocks, cash, private equity. So the conversation has started. They're putting money to work. This is wicked and important. Paul's brilliant question here, folks,
to me, in the zeitgeist, the blooms off the roads. Everybody, every marketing type on the fourteenth floor ninety days ago was private credit, Give me a piece, give me an our, you know, cheerlead none. Paul, do you suggest this a little bit like the demand for private credit? And my IRA is maybe not there.
I don't know, Tom. When we go visit some of these rias out there, I'm shocked at the allocation they out that they do have for alternatives. I would have thought it was three percent five percent now they're talking ten twenty five percent.
Really, it's moving higher, for sure, there's no doubt about it. But I think it's going to stall out at say ten to fifteen percent. It's going to just show me it has tax ramifications, the paperwork that comes with the tranches to tie ups and so forth.
So there's clients that really embrace it.
But in general it's moving higher, but not not close to fifteen twenty percent.
When you talk to Brian.
Moynan when he's back fancy from Davos, what do you say to him about the state of buying the stock market?
Well, you saw our bank earnings pretty robust last year of the year before. We're looking at another good outlook this year. Our Bank of American Institute is a da data gatherer. Weren't eighty million households here in the US Bank of America, so our data is suggesting good. Consumer capital investment is strong. Our commercial book is strong as well, so Brian eighty contem the CIO where I work all
pretty positive heading into twenty twenty six. It's a good story and people don't believe it, but it's a good story because.
On Friday night at Niagar University. What do you do go over to the American Falls. Well, now you go to the Freshman you.
Go to the you go to the Rathskeller, lock the door and make sure the kegs are full.
Okay, Joe Quitman, thank you for that important strategy advice. He, of course legendary at Merrill and Bank of America Private Bank.
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Say She's a JP Morgan Asset management barely describes an eclectic track record. I love the idea, folks, that you prepare for fixed income, currency and commodities by spending seventeen years in equities. You are a strange beast, k ere. What is it like moving from equities over to fix I mean, that's a rare thing.
So I'm going to take that as a compliment from you, because a strange beest.
I mean, it's really really a different path, isn't it?
And I would have thought you would have been in Davos this week while I was toiling away at two seventy Park.
You're not out there wearing a fancy sun blisses.
I did it for twenty years, and you know John Wynn, and you know we sent a whole bunch of people to Bloomberg House in that. But you know, frankly, I get as much done on Davos sitting here as I do sitting at the Belvidere.
What are you nod in your head about?
So look to answer your question. I love investing.
I love thinking about what's priced into markets, and investing is fundamentally about projecting future cash flows. So the major difference between you know, I started as a credit research channelist, spent three years as a credit research channelist, then spent seventeen years and equities as an analyst and a portfolio manager before moving back to fixed income, I guess six
seven years ago. And the real fundamental difference tom is upside or downside, and so inequities, you get to dream about things going up ten times, you know, sunglass makers going up sixty percent in the week. Bonds were a little bit more boring. We're in basis point to basis point not losing money.
So I guess I'm a.
Little bit better about thinking about downside risk than I am about blue sky blue sunglass scenarios.
Geopolitical risk kind of came back to the four again this week. Okay, how do you guys think about that? We had to deal with it in April of last year. Came back a little bit this week. Do you guys just try to see through that?
You know that it's a great question, and we got to separated into two pieces. So when we're managing portfolios, you've got to see through it and look to see are there any opportunities we can capitalize on. You take a step back, though, and you think about the backdrop
heading into Davos. We've got relatively low volatility of the equity and bond markets and relatively high valuations, and so you introduce a little bit of geopolitical intrigue and there you've got some volatility in markets, and that tends to pass along, you know. You think about the bond market this week. The tenure Treasury had been kind of range bound between three seventy five and four and a quarter
for a while, edging towards the lower end. When we get weak employment number moving back towards the higher end, when we get concerns about inflation, and we broke through that this week. When the geopolitical tensions, when you look at it breaking through the two hundred day moving average, which was for twenty three, there's not a lot of
technical support. And when you start to worry about I don't think that you know, invading Denmark was on I'm sorry, invading sorry, invading ice cream Land, not Iceland or Denmark was on anybody's binko card. So that kind of comes
in and makes people very volatile. And we've got an absence of fundamental data until the next employment data until February sixth, so people start to move into conspiracy theories and concerns about geopolitical But the answer to your question is yes, the fundamentals are what's more important.
And on the fundamental side.
What we see is a no hire, no fire market, moderating inflation and you know, pretty pretty solid economic growth. You saw GDP yesterday at four point four.
How much credit risk were we taking in twenty twenty six, I mean, considered to your treasure and get three zero point six percent. That's not bad.
Yeah, so we like high quality credit, both high quality investment grade and high quality high yield. And you know, as I was sitting here listening to the meteorologists, which I think this is the first time I've ever been preceded by a meteorologist on Bloomberg, I was trying to pull this together and what are the themes? And Tom's this one's for you. Really, the last major snowstorm the New York metro area had to my recollection was nineteen ninety six.
That was a big one.
Credit spreads in ig are back to their nineteen ninety eight tights, so we're going back to the nineties this week.
There's a heritage at JP Morgan on gold. You made a splash or a middle last year on a five thousand statistic, which is happening way faster than you thought or anybody else thought. But bring over how you think gold should be an adult, responsible retail even institutional family office portfolio. Do you buy broken ill properties of Australia? Do you put krueger Rans in the bedroom of the third house, you know, the dresser drawer. What does k
hers say you do? If you say, I guess I need to own gold.
Look I think if you guess you need to own gold, I think the biggest change in the market in the last few years is that tfs have made that more accessible. So I guess I'm an old fashioned by gold jewelry, by gold coins, but I think for the average person maybe it's more accessible and an ETF type structure or something like that. But I think one of the things that's driven the increase in prices in gold is the creation of the new ETFs in that market and the
accessibility for gold. And as I'm sure you know, there hasn't been the supply of gold hasn't really changed in the demand for gold has risen, so I think that's what's really driving it.
Twenty twenty five, we started hearing out a lot more, at least I did, about emerging markets and the performance there gives your view on emerging markets seas is, how are you playing it if at all?
Yeah, A couple of things on that.
Yeah, emerging markets really rebounded in a material way last year. I think a couple of things when you think about the emerging markets. First off, I mean, as we've learned over the last couple of years, develop market central banks forgot about inflation emerging markets never had the luxury to throw out the inflation fighting, so emerging markets were much quicker to start hiking rates before inflation got carried away.
And increasingly they've shown more fiscal discipline as well. So when you look at EM versus DM, you're seeing, you know, a growth pickup in emerging markets on the order of two and a half pike percent above develop markets, and that's a pretty attractive opportunity.
New issuance has been crazy in the fixed income space on municipals, investment grade, high yield, and I don't know if I listened to the Jamie Diamonds in the one hands of the world, it's going to be even more so in twenty twenty six. How do you guys as investors deal with that, because I would think that would be a challenge or a headwind floor performance.
So it's it's really interesting if you look at the investment grade market. We've had one hundred and seventy billion dollars issued from jan one through this week and as well as you probably would expect with that, and I think the first two days of the year were records, so market really came out in force force with a lot of issuance. But I think it's really interesting to think about the fact that in the face of record or near record issuance, you've also seen a tightening in spreads.
So you know, we've heard, you know, talk this week about the Cell America trade. Instead, what we've seen is record demand for these types of and a tightening in spread. So in terms of the question, and I think about twenty six and generating investment performance for our clients, I think there's likely to be more dispersion in performance of different credits, and I think security selection is going to be very important.
So I think that's that's what we are really focused on.
But I think because of the geopolitical situation this week and the fact that some issuers are in blackout, it's been relatively quiet this week. I think it comes back in force over the next couple of weeks we get sever one hundred.
Thousand job formation. You know, there's eight different opinions on the job. Could Michael Faroli with path Baking work on potential GDP even a decade ago, eight years ago, and yet we've got this boom real GDP, this boom nominal GDP. Do you say to your clients, look out past the twenty twenty six stimulus, or do you say this is part of the new America where you're going to have a greater animal spirit from a buoyant nominal GDP.
You know, I worry about saying in the investment in the investment landscape, one of the most dangerous expressions ever is this time is different. So I worry about that. But I do think that we have what we've seen is an enhancement in productivity. So on the topic of Mike Farole, he's an outstanding economist.
I've got a lot of respect for him.
And the topic of the broader economy, I mean, it looks pretty solid across It continues to be a CA shaped recovery consumers.
It's not equally spread across people.
But I do think we've got some fiscal stimulus this year at an administration that is looking to enhance animal spirits.
I think you're absolutely right.
How far by I got eight ways to go here? How far behind retail is institutional? I saw something yesterday that once again they under your own tech into earnings. Julian Emmanuel publishes at everquare Isi this morning a fourteen point four percent earnings growth run rate. Maybe it's there, maybe it's not well know in you know, two weeks, six weeks, whatever. How does institutional catch up to this retail success in technology? Do they need just simple they
need to buy more Apple? Don't give me this, it's outside your giving you.
I really don't know how to answer that. But I don't know that.
I don't know that that's I don't know whether the premise of your question is accurate or not. I don't know that retail is a head of institutional. I think, you know, you look at at funded status and pensions and things like that. I think we've had some very successful institutional investors. So I don't know it's my answer.
How about earnings?
We're getting into the teeth of earnings next week. I think at three hundred of the S and P five hundred companies report. Is the earnings outlook sufficient for markets? Do you think these days? Or do we have to earn our way into some of these valuations.
It's a good question.
I think what you've seen so far in earning season is that disappointing earnings have been punished severely. So I think it depends on the valuations. I think for the bond market. Yes, spreads are tight, but I think earnings have been good enough and they'll continue to be good enough. I think in the equity market, where some of the valuations are a bit more stretched, I think companies have to put up numbers that show that they warrant those valuations.
Thank you so much for coming back.
Thanks for having me.
It's lovely to have you here. She's with JP Morgan. Folks can't say enough about the process at work the kigure has done for years.
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She's incredibly qualified.
At Morgan Stanley, Monica Grurge joints Executive Director, Head A US Policy at Morgan Stanley.
There's a stimulus Monica going on right now.
Alexis is going to get like six two thousand dollars checks or whatever. The way she's playing the game, Monica, does a stimulus go over to our infrastructure investment in America, what we're thinking.
Right now is that it's likely to go. Actually to the defense industry. You had Trump requests a one point five trillion dollar defense budget. This is a fifty percent increase over the prior year. The largest year over year increase since the Korean War is a percent of GDP. So while we're not saying this is wartime, it does indicate how involved we are on so many geopolitical fronts, and that's really where the economic multiplier is likely to
come from from the fiscal side. In twenty twenty six.
Monica, it's an election year. Yet again, what does that typically mean for markets here? Because you know, oftentimes in these you know, midterm elections, you get a change and controls of various Houses of Congress.
How do you play that?
So midterm electioneers, markets tend to underperform and it's the year after that you get the outperformance. And that's because folks are waiting to see right that that outcome. Typically what you'll get is if we end up with a split, you know, gridlock Congress in twenty twenty seven, you're going to be off to the races, right because nothing changes and policy is stable. But right now we're in that
policy uncertainty mode. The one thing we do know we're going to get is that focus on affordability and the Trump administration the midterms as part of every single conversation that they have, and one of those things is we're going to be seeing it in housing, trying to control energy costs as well as making other aspects of spending in the consumer affordable.
But if I get out my rolodex, you're one of the best people to talk to about well intentioned politicians, quote trying to control Is there any history that politicians can you control Paul Sweeney's electric bill?
I think it's I think it's challenging to do. But one of the things that they're that they're looking to essentially alleviate the burden is to essentially move from this idea that there's an energy transition happening to an energy addition and trying to make the public private partnership component on the UNI side more accessible and easier for municipal wants to come to market in the public power space, giving the municipals and the local governments more power to
have over their energy sources. So this is a long term play. It's not going to be overnight, and for the midterms it's likely to be even more messaging on energy costs versus an actual reduction.
Monica.
I guess just this week we saw some of the volatility come back into the market that maybe we saw early last year. So it relates to teriffs this time associated with Greenland. It seems to have tampered down here. But do we have to start thinking about some of this tariff stuff and crosswinds headwinds for the markets.
Yeah.
I mean one of the things that we've you know, long held is that the tariff environment is here to stay. Even if we IIBA is struck down by the Supreme Court, which we think it will be, the administration is doing all the legwork in the background to set up certain backfills, if you will, so Section two thirty two, Section two A one. There's tons right of different categories of trade law that they're exploring to try to essentially create a
patchwork to get us to that final place. The other option that people aren't talking about with AIPA is that we could end up in a gray zone where you get a nuanced carve out on terrorists. So, for example, you could say, okay, we could justify China because you can argue that we're in an economic cold war with them, but you can't from Malaysia. And so then that even makes it an easier case for supporting that federal debt and deficit in the budget if they lose.
Is Alexis going to get a tariff rebate check for the banana she bought ninety days ago.
I'm waiting, all right, So this is going to come full circle to my first comment about defense. So if we're thinking about that significant amount of fiscal spending that could be coming for these defense and geopolitical priorities, and argue, it really lowers the likelihood that you're going to get an appetite for a rebate check.
For you sure, for your care.
So we think that's unlikely, hopefully unlikely you're going to get that check. But rather than going to try to come at the affordable piece through you know, other measures.
That's kind of i mean affordabilities kind of to really come into the top of the discussion pile here. Given some of the elections we saw in New Jersey and Virginia and some others, is that something that you expect the administration to focus on?
Absolutely and one of the things that's important though, is that even though Trump's you know, proposing say a ten percent cap on credit card interest, it's going to take an Act of Congress to move a lot of this along, which is helpful for members of Congress that are running.
We don't know.
Exactly what's viable because there's still a lot of infighting and sort of you know, setting the table for twenty twenty six, but we're going to see more and more of this discussion because it is going to be a winning category on that campaign.
Trail Monica, Thank you so much, great brief, terrific brief Monica, Morgan Stanley. Again, we protect the copyright of all of our guests. Get her wonderful important research from Morgan Stanley.
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She's toasting Army. She has been working on the newspapers. Alexis Christophus. I hear the set of ideas.
Yeah, how about this for breakfast, guys? A pint of Guinness with some complimentary donuts. Has that sound perfect?
You know who's doing it?
Who's doing it?
JJ Foleys up in Boston. You're calling out all the Patriots fans at seven am? How about a Guinness seven am? They want you to come on down to JJ Foley's there in the South End because the Today Show is going to be there there.
This is Today, This is Today my word.
So so grab your hat and your scarf and your sign and go down there because they want to send off their Pats to the game on Sunday against the Denver Broncos in style. So you know you're gonna have Pat the mascot is going to be there. Pat cheerleaders are going to be there, and they're promising some er some friend.
Is South End. It's you know, it's not South Boston. It's sort of South End. But it's not Time. I mean, I can't see the Today Show at time. English is you know, they just you know, they just don't mix. J. J. Foley's more upscale, so you.
Know, yeah, they're the oldest Irish pub I think in Boston.
Is that right? It looks quick, Western cool, looks cool.
There's brass flack there for three Lives.
To go exactly there you go, and Boston sure.
Absolutely, yeah, we love them.
Next, Okay, I'm going to move on.
I was going to say that I was hoping maybe the Pats can win on the road this weekend, because you know, Broncos QB is out with that ankle injury.
It's somebody on a map, the entire nations for the Denver Broncos except for three zip codes in Boston.
All right, listen, if you don't want Guinness for breakfast, how about biscuits and gravy Here in New York City. I know that bagels are a big thing, but there's a chain down south. I don't know if you know it, Bojangles. So it's going to be opening up its first location in New York City. It's going to happen in Flatbush, Brooklyn, of course, of course, but whatever that means. And they're hoping that biscuits can become the new bagel for folks
in New York. So the menu includes bacon, egg and cheese, sausage, egg and cheese chicken sandwiches, but they all come here's the clincher on buttermilk biscuits.
Yep, get a little gravy, sausage, gravy on there, We're set to go.
Yeah, you know, breakfast is big business though, yep. I mean it's becoming big business for a lot of these restaurants because you've got you know, people are becoming more selective about what they're spending their money on. You've got higher prices, so they're you know, breakfast is emerging like.
A big absolutely absolutely, all right, that's a good one.
Speaking of prices, so we're talking about this storm, this is all that we're talking about, and of course, unfortunately we are seeing price gouging right. They're getting you where it hurts, no matter if you're trying to buy you know, ice, melt, boots, flash flights.
So this is I don't understand why people do this. We're gonna be We're gonna be inside for a day. I mean, if you mean you mean why we're stopping the nuts, I mean the shop right in Bellmar, New Jersey esterday was a war zone and we just drove right past it.
You know, I I give into it, though I am guilty of it. I was texting my husband just a few minutes ago, I said, please please go get eggs, milk, bread.
You have milk and bread in my house already.
It didn't, but I want there.
Was price coaching going on, and there's not a way to protect. For example, the.
New York Yeah, yeah, so the New York Post actually did a little deep dive here and expose. They went on Amazon and they checked prices. They saw women's snow boots jumping ninety one percent in price in just three days, space heaters, flashlights, first aid kits. There was also Petri pet safe ice melts. That's hard to say, Yeah, climbing
forty five percent just this week. So folks, be careful out there when you're when you're buying, because you know you're going to be you're paying a premium at this point. There are tom There are states though, that have laws on the books, like New York. I think South Carolina, North Carolina that you cannot just go out, you know, and charge whatever you want. But you look, when you're desperate, it's hard.
But there's not I mean, the way you rock Alexus is bogner. I mean, there's not the kari Ski jacket an orange and purple for two thousand dollars. Well, they're not raising the price on that during this.
Now, well you're you're a big spender, tom so Well, says Alexus to me.
It says a low stock. They've already got it, Ryan, don't walk the newspapers.
Thank you so much, Alexus.
There.
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