Repricing Risk Assets in a Higher Rate Environment - podcast episode cover

Repricing Risk Assets in a Higher Rate Environment

Oct 23, 202334 min
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Episode description

Wei Li, BlackRock Global Chief Investment Strategist, says there's a need for a repricing of risk assets to reflect the higher rate environment. Tom Tzitzouris, Strategas Head of Fixed Income Research, says that continued high interest rates will bite all corners of the economy. Kathy Bostjancic, Nationwide Mutual Insurance Chief Economist, expects wage growth to level off as the Fed works to lower inflation. Amrita Sen, Energy Aspects Director of Research, expects more consolidation in oil as Chevron buys Hess in a $53B deal. Ret. Gen. Frank McKenzie, Global & National Security Institute Executive Director and Fmr. US CENTCOM Commander, says the main objective in the Middle East is to ensure Iran is deterred from further involvement in the war.
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Transcript

Speaker 1

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane, along with Jonathan Farrow and Lisa Abramowitz. Join us each day for insight from the best and economics, geopolitics, finance and investment. Subscribe to Bloomberg Surveillance on demand on Apple, Spotify and anywhere you get your podcasts, and always on Bloomberg dot Com,

the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Right now, we're going to begin here benis Grant and Lisa Bramitz and Tom kan with our definitive call in the day on global fixed income. Way lead as global chief investment strategists at Blackrock, prodigious in mathematics and joins us here on our fears of price down and yield up. Walley, thank you so much for finding the time. Where is the bid on bonds? To me, the bid is walked away?

Is that true? Is there just a dearth of bid across all of fixed income?

Speaker 2

There are lots of moving parts right now. Good morning everyone. In terms of our review on long bonds long duration, we have been underweight US long duration for three years now. Since late twenty twenty one, ten year yields was below one percent, and last week we closed the underweight to get to neutral. There are a couple of moving parts in terms of why rates have reprised so very meaningfully.

The first piece is policy path repricing, and a second piece is term premier repricing, and within that, inflation premier is part of tim premier. So where we are now with ten year yields testing five percent in our assessment, policy path is not that different from where we think it should be. But term premier, depending on which measure you use, we're looking at somewhere between twenty based point forty basis in different methodology actually could push even higher

over the strategic horizon. So we're talking about term premier over the strategic horizon at one hundred basis point, not out of this world because of fiscal imbalance, because of insurance dynamics, because of higher rate environment, rate volatility, as well as because of higher inflationary environment. So when you bring all of that together, strategically we're still underweight, but technically we're not neutral because risks have now become more balanced.

And when we think about kind of the reader cross of weight repricing to risk assets, actually policy path repricing can be negative for equities because it impacts the discount rates directly, but time premier repricing doesn't have to be negative for equities because it's more an assessment of the relative appeal of duration in portfolios.

Speaker 3

Do you think way, I know that you've been leaning into the whole AI discussion and the whole AI thesis, and that's been driving some of your equity bets. Do you think that that area is completely immune to term premium in these discussions of yields, given the cash cows that they've become.

Speaker 2

Well, what has been very interesting with regards to this mega tech and AI theme is that on the one hand, they benefit from the growth upgrade earnings upgrates that we're seeing coming through. So, for example, next year ten percent EPs podcasts for S and B five hundred, half of that is driven by mega tech names, right, five percent is coming from the tech names. So they're definitely benefiting from earning's upgrades, which we appay a lot of attention to.

But at the same time, they are more long duration compared with the broader equity market, so when the rate reprices, it pressures down on long duration a little bit more. Everything else be equal. But when you bring the two factors together, actually the growth prospect and the AI theme gathering momentum and the earnings upgrades actually trunk the duration sensitivity, as we have seen so far earlier in the year,

but also in recent periods of reprising. Actually the AI theme the nastac have been holding up better than you would have accepted given the rate folatility.

Speaker 1

Well, good morning.

Speaker 4

Just to carry on from that, this week they're going to see sixteen trillion dollars worth of equity reports and the magnificent part of the magnificent seven of tech are going to be in there. What Tom, Lisa and myself what we're talking about was the balance sheets, the cash on the balance sheets, the cash on Apples balance sheet, the cash on the other big tech. Is that another defensive hallmark and a reason to endure and stay long big tech.

Speaker 2

That is why we are still overweight to the big tech and AI theme, because when we think about kind of quality characteristics as growth slows down reacts to the tightening environment that we're all experiencing, actually having cash on your balance sheet and not being as geared up in this environment is a definite is a definite plus and more broadly, we're talking about kind of the impression of

the earning season. The feeling is that it's holding up better, but actually not forget the broader backdrop, which is the earnings. Actually the three quarters have been stagnating, and we're just talking about incremental rebound from the stagnating maddrob So that's the big picture here.

Speaker 1

Well, Lawrence from New York emails in and says, ask way Lee, if an institutional for marks to market and everything else is on the balance sheet, and the rationalization is I can own it forever and I'll get paid back eventually. Blowny, how do you do the math and the midpoint of where the stuff you hold on the balance sheet gets a valuation. If I've got eight years of maturity, how close is it to where you get a tipping point where you've got to confront what's on the balance sheet.

Speaker 2

Well, first say hello to Lawrence, and so yes, indeed we have we have to see more repricing of risk assets reflecting the higher rate environment. We look at duration work kind of almost there, which is why tactically we turned neutral. But if you look at equities, it has

yet to reflect the higher rate environment. By our bras and for kind of arithmetic, kind of braise and for back of the envelope analysis, you know, like further five percent to ten percent adjustment is not you know, unthinkable.

And then you think about private markets, there is also further reprising to go, which is why greater dispersion, greater selectivity is really warranted as we think about kind of deploying your risk budget in this environment, because there is a different rate sensitivity across risk spectrum, which is why we're very selective when it comes to our these we're focusing on sceptor cell growing earnings, but also very selective

in terms of the private market. We like private credit, we like infrastructure that all these parts and private markets that benefits sail.

Speaker 1

Wings on your full faith and credit there way, Lee, thank you so much of black Crack. Tom Stauris is with Strtigas is a bird company. He's had a fixed income, but he's got to bounce off the great Jason Trenner as well. And you floored me. Within an analysis, it's seventy percent of America our voters that are small business and they're in the churn, and they only make up five percent of the GDP has the Fed left them behind in this yield environment.

Speaker 5

Well, I would very much say so. The Fed, by overly relying on the Fed funds rate to titan, has put so much of that pain on main Street USA. It's almost as if we've decided there's too big defail. The earlier this year we decided there medium is too big to fail. Medium sized businesses still kind of val bank signature bank depositors there. So if that means that if there's large companies are too big to fail, medium

sized companies are too big to fail. The only place you can actually tighten in the US economy these days is small businesses and households, and the FED has done exactly that by overly relying on the FED funds rate. With that said, balance sheet reduction is catching up with the bond market. Now we're seeing treasury yields rise in the belly of the curve.

Speaker 3

Okay, and we'll get there on one sec which is a technical underpinnings of why we're seeing a sell off. But to stick on the point that Tom was talking about, if you have such a swath of the voter base that is feeling this kind of pain, and if you have small businesses that account for a significant proportion of the jobs losing momentum. When does that start to trickle into a higher unemployment rate, When does it start to reinforce and then actually bring rates down because of slower growth.

Speaker 5

Well, we were already at that point in March of this year. We were forty eight hours from recession, which would have been very deep, and then we had financial stabilization via liquidity injections. So when does it begin to bite again, Probably sometime between Christmas and we'll say Valentine's Day, when the consumer gets those late twenty twenty three credit card bills in January and you start to see a pullback. I don't see any sort of slow down in consumption.

We didn't see it in the data last week. So that suggests to us the labor market's going to continue to remain strong, at least until the end of the year. But at some point in time, those higher interest rates are going to bite all corners of the economy, not just small businesses and households.

Speaker 3

Are yields rising right now because of the perception of strength that is given by some of the bigger businesses that are much stronger, I.

Speaker 1

Don't think so.

Speaker 5

I think yields are rising because we're finally seeing supply come in and really scare those bond vigilantes. The bond vigilantes are back, and they're pushing the term premium up on all treasuries, not just the front end of the curve.

Speaker 4

Now, well, they've been on at leach, not just in the US treasury market, but also in UK gilds and on boons. What goes through my mind is that when you trigger through five percent and you see the curve moving so aggressively, do you think that we hit some kind of a point of where risk powergy trades begin to get smacked, or where var limits at various various trading houses get triggered. Do you think that we're going to go into that next evolution of where we see a real liquidation moment.

Speaker 5

That's a tough question because I think we've seen now this is really the third substantial rise in ten year treasury as we've seen over the last three years. Each time you've probably seen those var strategies take a turn of leverage off along the way. So the sensitivity today to a five percent is probably less than it was to a three percent two years ago because they've taken. From what we can see, there's been some leverage nets come off. With that said, there's always another break point.

I don't know if it's five h two or five seventeen, or we might have already hit it at four ninety, but there's a break point here where you're going to see another round of leverage come off. And that's part of the reason why we're it's probably a multi step process, but that's probably one of the reasons why we're seeing the SMP off again as well, and credit spreads inching higher because I think we're getting close to that point again.

Speaker 4

So who steps in here? This is the debate that we three of us have had for the past two hours, which is duration heroes aren't to be seen. Yeash, you're trading above five percent. Insurance companies have a different accounting system. They don't need to come in and hedge themselves. Who steps into this bond market to comp yields?

Speaker 5

Well, there's a good and a bad to this. The good is there's need to mean the good. The good is an enormous amount of plain vanilla core fixed income strategies that will just love to keep buying and buying and buying treasuries. The bad news is those are price sensitive investors. They're not like the leveraged investorship past. So they're going to basically come in after there's a concession, so treasury supply comes in, yields tick a little higher,

they come in and buy on the cheap. They're not going to be price and sensitive who will buy on any tip.

Speaker 1

You are a grizzled veteran of this. I'm going to give you two ideas. One that we talked to way Lee about at black Rock, which is the bid walks away all of a sudden, non priced folks, not yield price of bonds, the bid walks away. And the great Chris Whaling call this the Wayland's silence. You're out there, you're on your phone. This is the old days. Man

is you buy tickets here, sell tickets here. You're on your phone and you're going, I got a gazillion dollars of the trender, you know what, And there's just silence. Nobody wants that piece of paper. Are we close to that?

Speaker 5

Well, some would say we've actually hit that people. There's a lot of fair about thirty year auction. There's a lot of fair about auctions on the front of the curve over the last few weeks, saying they were even having desks.

Speaker 1

Norway calls up and they go, I gotta sell a zillion years of that cranny of twenty forty two. Is there somebody there to buy this garbage?

Speaker 5

There is, but you're going to have to put in a price concession. That is, yields are going to have to push higher than what the market is trading at. And the treasury is now no longer immune to this.

Speaker 1

I said price concession, and the bramokamshook. I mean, at what point the reality.

Speaker 3

Just real quick here Tom, to sum it all together. Are you getting compensated for the uncertainty right now? Are you buying duration?

Speaker 1

Yes, we would be.

Speaker 5

I think you're being fairly compensated. Our own measure of the term premium on the ten year treasury it's above one hundred basis points. That's a very important level, not just symbolically, but what it's telling you is that you're getting normalized cushion for that uncertainty. This is where you normally would be. So we feel you're being compensated. Doesn't mean we can't see yields tick higher here but you're being compensated for the risk going forward. I believe at this.

Speaker 1

Point Asson from a cigar bar in East Side emails and it says, talk about me. Okay, let's talk about Jason Trunnan. How does this fold in? How does your fixed income analysis fold into Jason Trennan's calling this on the equity markets?

Speaker 5

Well, it makes us that much more bearish on the economy because we continue to see another source of stress for the consumer and now businesses picking up here. So what we're doing is we've delayed recession and we've said we're going to avoid recession at all costs in twenty twenty three. But that itself, there's cost to that, and the cost is going to be that the breaking point is going to be when yields are higher, which means there's more risk of financial credit events.

Speaker 1

Have you predicted that?

Speaker 5

Nothing that we can see right now, But by the nature of those types of events, they are places you can't see them. So at a five ten year treasury it's much more likely than it was when we were at three point fifty. So where it is lurking that leveraged investor who is caught off guard, we don't know. We don't see that happening at this moment, but it's on our horizon.

Speaker 1

Bottle at tom Soasaurus. There are statigas there and fixed income the effect across all of the American economy. Kathleen Bes johnsik joins us now Chief Economists Nationwide Mutual Insurance. Kathy, once again you have failed and everybody else with a bang up third quarter GDP modeled out at five percent. You're gonna tell me we can't sustain that? All my radars up. Why can't we sustain above average? That's real GDP?

Speaker 6

Good morning, Tom, Well, it is unsustainable, and the main reason is that we just don't have enough workers. Really, if you break down GDP growth, right, you look at the number of workers and how productive unless we're getting a real boom and productivity growth, really hard to sustain five percent growth. And what it also does in the meantime, as you know, is overheats the economy and makes it more difficult for the Fed Reserve to lower inflation, and

that's their primary goal. So I think one way or the other said will lower inflation and continue to lower it. But that may you know, that means that five percent is not very sustainable.

Speaker 4

Where are you on that good morning, good to see you. Where are you on the outlook for wages is the heat and I suppose the fury of wage negotiation. Is that in the rear view mirror as you look into twenty twenty four?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 6

Good, good question, manis So we'll keep and I on wage growth. But what we have seen, despite the numerous strikes that have popped up and concerns there, we've actually seen wage growth decelerate. It's come down from six to seven percent. It's still running too high for the FEDS comfort, right, it's running around four percent or so, a little bit above that. They'd really like to see that between three and three and a half, to be consisted with two

percent inflation. But you know, going back to labor market is the key right now in terms of wage growth. But also how long this you know, strong growth continues. It's not ultimately sustainable. But do we see some meaningful slowdown in the fourth quarter. That's that's really what's important.

Speaker 4

Tom chasing me a little bit earlier on. There's a great phrase that I use of its grand. It depends how I say the word grand. Grand can mean many different things. I said, the US consumer is grand, and Tom rightly chasing me, he said, did you look at the delinquencies on subprime in the auto industry? Did you look perhaps the underbelly of what is going on? We're going to get retail sales, you know, they remain grand in inverted commas, but suddenly we're dealing with a shift

in rates to above five percent. Would you describe the consumer as grand or high challenge? Does the consumer become in a world of world rates actually tightening tightening, tightening?

Speaker 1

Yeah?

Speaker 6

I think the way I would say it is the consumer looks to be grand, but there are a lot of headwinds hitting the consumer now. The tailwind has been the labor market very strong. Right, as long as the labor market is churning out the jobs, you know two hundred thousand, three hundred thousand, right, the consumer is going

to keep spending. But you have still elevated inflation. You have a consumer loan payments, you know, kicking in and as you said, certain demographics are really challenged right now, and delinquencies picking up a little bit. So it's not a completely rosy picture here. But I would say say you got to follow the labor market. That is the key.

Speaker 1

So if I'm the FED, I'm going to follow the labor market. I'm data dependent, But I would suggest November one ish is upon us, and you know we're gonna sort of have a post Halloween party. I guess it's a non meeting December for Kathy bus johnsick. How key is the December meeting?

Speaker 6

Oh, it's important, you know, I think each meeting is important in the sense not what they do, but it's what Chairman pal guides is right, what do we hear in the press conference? But December, we'll get the revised forecast, right, We'll get the macro forecast and the doc lot estimate, even though those aren't you know, golden rule.

Speaker 7

Right.

Speaker 6

It doesn't mean that's exactly what the FED is going to do, right, but it's guidance. And you know, it'd be interesting to see. Our view is growth closed by more than half? Right in the fourth quarter, we see it running a bit above two percent. But I have to say that handoff. You know, men have talked about retail sales. The handoff consumer spending to the fourth quarter was a bit firmer than we thought. We really need to see consumer We need to see growth for the

fedly feel comfortable below two percent. I mean Chairman Palell told us he thinks more potential growth is two percent, right, so he wants it on a sub same basis.

Speaker 1

I mean, Kathy, you're with Nationwide. Do you have tickets to Michigan right around Thanksgiving? I mean it's at Michigan. I get that, But you're Kathy Bus Johnsick. Can you get us into one hundred thousand people at ann Arbor.

Speaker 6

Only if you're voting for Ohio state? It can only do that very good.

Speaker 1

We're from Columbus and Nationwide, Kathleen Bus Johnsick. Let's get right too. It's your definitive brief here on this transaction sixty billion of a total enterprise value. Emrita send expert at the micro foundations of the price of oil and also expert out of the geography of oil. Emrita. I was up to speed on this in a fake O way, and I'm getting up to speed quickly. Guyana twenty fifteen. Exxon finds more oil than God in the Gulf of

Mexico off of South America. This is hess and this is a Guiana acquisition by mister Worth and Chevron explain to our audience the magnitude of the Guiana oil fields.

Speaker 7

I think it's a fantastic acquisition if you ask me, given the fact that Guyana is actually going to be the most prolific non OPEC supply growth in the coming years. Exon, like you said, already has footprint and as does hes so Chevron now through Hess gets exposure to that. You know, Guyana's production has been growing by two to three hundred thousand barrels per day. It's got several new fbsos planned

in the coming years. We're talking about production reaching and breaching a million barrels for day and continuing to grow. So it is, like I said, the most promising non OPEC supply prospect. You know, we've had Brazil take that position for the last few years and that's now flipped to Guyana. So again, in that sense, a fantastic acquisition.

Speaker 1

What is the distinction of Guyana? And then I believe it is too. You're going to get my map out, manus, I'm going down in flames here. What is the distinction between Guyana and Venezuela on the southern side of the Caribbean.

Speaker 7

I mean, of course, there's political stability, for one, and the quality of oil. The quality of oil Guyana producers is actually very good quality. It's sweeter. It's really liked by even European refiners who sometimes struggle to process a lot of the heavier barrels. Venezuela and oil is very very heavy oil. It's like by a lot of refiners who like in the US Golf Coast, that have the capacity to process that. It requires what you call cocas,

but not every refiner has that. So Guyana's oil is actually easier to process in that sense, of course, in today's day and age, though, because we have a lot of refineries around the world who need that heavy oil, the lifting of sanctions on Venezuela would actually be welcome, of course, if that is to be sustained and if there are free and fair Eleans. There are lots of question marks around now.

Speaker 1

I'm reda Surveyllance correction. You're Guiana to the east of Venezuela by six hundred miles between Caracas and Georgetown. Thank you, nail On that. One of our interns just saved me, and.

Speaker 4

Then I'm going to fly with you.

Speaker 3

There is a question seeing why are we seeing so many of these acquisitions right now in the oil patch.

Speaker 7

I mean, you know, this is something our team, our US upstream team has been pointing out since July. We actually identified eighty companies that we thought was up for grabs. I'll happily share that list with you guys, and I think of that about seventeen eighteen have already happened. This is if you think about the shale patch of the last decade, it was fueled by zero interest rates, and it was fueled by focusing on not shareholder a growth or cash flow. But it was all about production growth.

So it didn't matter whether you made money or not, just come pump and produce as much oil. That's changed now over the last few years, we've seen actually shareholders say no, you actually need to return money to us, which means a lot of the acreage and a lot of the companies that had poor acreage just produced anyways. They have to get basically integrated with bigger companies who have economies of scale, because that's the only way you can generate cash. So that's the that's the main reason

why we are seeing this. And then of course as interest rates go up, servicing a lot of these debts that they have, a lot of the companies have very very high debts, just isn't feasible, and that's why you will continue to see consolidation. We think this is just the start and we're going to see a lot more going forward.

Speaker 3

So, Amrita, how much is this also a result of maybe anti trust agents in the US looking more favorably at some of these tie ups because there is this goal to usset some of the supply fluctuations in the Middle East.

Speaker 4

I mean, look, I.

Speaker 7

Think that's at the margin, right if you think about the kind of deals being done, or look at the deals being done. It started with occidental back not this year, but previously. It's always about getting the acreage which is right next to yours so that you can have economies of scale. And I think that's the underlying reason for that. And of course even with these acquisitions, it doesn't necessarily

mean you're going to get more production. More often than not, one plus one rigs is making giving us one point two rigs, not two, because a lot of the rigs, like I was saying earlier, is actually poor quality. So that bigger companies simply saying we're not going to produce from here, and therefore overall production actually goes down. Exon

and Pioneer are the exception there. Every other MNA we've seen actually is leading to lowering overall guidance of the two companies rather than raising it.

Speaker 4

I'm really good to see this morning. Does any of this deal making that you see go through reflect anticipation of it change or a material change in US energy policy we're coming I don't know whether we're coming to the end of a Biden administration, but we're going into an election year. Policy may change. America oil independence is key. Any of the political aspects play into the potential for deal making.

Speaker 7

I don't think so in the sense again, these are kind of company specific deals that we're talking about. I think the bigger challenge, of course, we have is I mean, look, the US is producing about thirteen million baros fill in, which is a record high anyways, and US production continues to grow. The challenge I was saying is that you do have sanctions being lifted on Venezuela even though elections haven't been held and there are still bands on the

opposition candidate. That raises more questions around the shale guys and saying why are we not being given the opportunity to produce even more rather than you going and doing deals elsewhere.

Speaker 4

I'm Rida, I'll see you in a month's time. In Vienna. There is an official video of I'mrita and I dancing in Opec during COVID going toe to toe the line. Yeah, we are so living the life in Vienna. Quick question on Vienna. As we go to Vienna. The theory is this that the US goes to refill the spr over the next couple of months, give Saudi and Russia some kind of caveat to release some of the unilateral cuts. Is that pie in the sky hopeful thinking? What is

your anticipation as we go to buy that. You don't buy that, do not buy that? I don't I do not buy that.

Speaker 7

I think Soudi Arabia has been very clear in saying they're keeping the cuts in place because of the macroeconomic concerns. Look, the US has said this before as well, that we're going to buy it when it was kind of you know, less than eighty dollars, and they didn't. They've only managed to refill four point eight million barrels and they've come out and said, oh, we'll buy the oil when it's you know, seventy nine. I don't think they're going to get there.

Speaker 1

Richison, thank you so much and on behalf of John Fair and Lisa team Surveillance. Really looks forward to interviewing you and Vienna here at the next cranny. Right now, we're going to begin here manus Crany, Lisa Brahminson, Tom King with our definitive call on the day on global fixed income Way lead as global chief investment strategists of Blackrock, prodigious in mathematics and joins us here on our fears of price down and yield up. Waly, thank you so

much for finding the time. Where is the bid on bonds? To me? The bid is walked away? Is that true? Is there just a dearth of bid across all of fixed income?

Speaker 2

There are lots of moving parts right now, Good morning everyone. In terms of our review on long bonds long duration, we have been underweight US long duration for three years now, since late twenty twenty one ten year yields was below one percent, and last week we closed the underweight to get to neutral. There are a couple of moving parts in terms of why rates have reprised, so very meaningfully.

The first piece is policy path repricing, and a second piece is term premier repricing, and within that, inflation premier is part of term premier. So where we are now with ten year yields testing five percent in our assessment, policy path is not that different from where we think it should be. But term premier, depending on which measure you use, we're looking at somewhere between twenty basis point forty basis point. Different methodology actually could push even higher

over the strategic horizon. So we're talking about term premier over the strategic horizon at one hundred basis point, not out of this world because of fiscal imbalance, because of insurance dynamics, because of higher rate environment, rate volatility, as well as because of higher inflationary environment. So when you bring all of that together, strategically was still underweight, but technically we're not neutral because risks have now become more balanced.

And when we think about kind of the reader cross of weight repricing to risk assets, actually, policy paths repricing can be negative for equities because it impacts the discount rates directly, but time premier repricing doesn't have to be negative for equities because it's more an assessment of the relative appeal of duration in portfolios.

Speaker 3

Do you think way, I know that you've been leaning into the whole AI discussion and the whole AI thesis, and that's been driving some of your equity bets. Do you think that that area is completely immune to turn premium in these discussions of yields given the cash cows that they've become.

Speaker 2

Well, what has been very interesting with regards to this mega tech and AI theme is that on the one hand, they benefit from the growth grade earnings upgrades that we're seeing coming through. So for example, next year, ten percent EPs podcasts for S and P five hundred. Half of that is driven by mega tech names. Five percent is coming from the tech names. So they're definitely benefiting from earning's upgrades, which we pay a lot of attention to.

But at the same time, they are more long douration compared with the broader acquity market, So when the rate reprices, it pressures down on long duration a little bit more. Everything else in equal, But when you bring the two factors together, actually the growth prospect and the AIME gathering momentum and the earnings upgrades actually trunk the douration sensitivity as we have seen so far earlier in the year,

but also in recent periods of repricing. Actually, the AI theme, the nastacs have been holding up better than you would have expected given the rate volatility.

Speaker 1

Well, good morning.

Speaker 4

Just to carry on from that, this week they're going to see sixteen trillion dollars worth of equity reports and the magnificent part of the magnificent seven of tech are going to be in there. What Tom, Lisa and myself what we're talking about was the balance sheets, the cash on the balance sheets, the cash on Apple's balance sheets, the cash on the other big tech. Is that another defensive hallmark and a reason to endure and stay long big tech.

Speaker 2

That is why we are still overweight to the big tech and AI theme, because when we think about kind of quality characteristics as rows slows down reacts to the tightening environment that we're all experiencing, actually having cash on your balance sheet and not being as geared up in

this environment is a definite is a definite plus. And more broadly, we're talking about kind of the impression of the earning season that the feeling is that it's holding up better, but actually not forget the broader backdrop, which is the earnings. Actually, the three quarters have been stagnating, and we're just talking about incremental rebound from the stagnating. That's the big picture here.

Speaker 1

Well, Lawrence from New York emails in and says, ask way Lee, if an institutional for marks to market and everything else is on the balance sheet, and the rationalization is I can own it forever and I'll get paid back eventually. Blowning, how do you do the math and the midpoint of where the stuff you hold on the balance sheet gets a valuation. If I've got eight years of maturity, how close is it to where you get a tipping point where you've got to confront what's on the balance sheet.

Speaker 2

Well, first say hello to Lawrence, and second, yes, indeed we haven't. We have to see more repricing of risk assets reflecting the higher rate environment. We look at the rational work kind of almost there, which is why toxically we turned neutral. But if you look at equities, it

has yet to reflect the higher rate environment. By our basin kind of aristhmetic kind of praise and put back of the envelope analysis, you know, like a further five percent to ten percent adjustment is not, you know, unthinkable, And then you think about private markets, there is also further reprising to go, which is why greater dispersion, greater selectivity is really warranted as we think about kind of deploying your risk budget in this environment, because there is

a different rate sensitivity across risk spectrum, which is why we're very selective when it comes to ours. We're focusing on sceptor cell growing earnings, but also very selective in terms of the private market. We like private credit, we like infrastructure that all these parts, and private markets that benefits secular sail.

Speaker 1

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