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So honored, Claudia, some I'm with us with New Century Advises. Claudia, I don't think people know who you are. You become such a fixture, such a giant of American academics. Let's start with the complete intimidation of walking in the door at Michigan one day and being greeted by the giants of inflation study Matthew Shapiro and Miles Spencer Kimball. What was it like working for those two academic beasts on inflation.
So it is an absolute privilege to work with both Matthew and Miles, and I keep there are lessons that I learned from them that keep replaying in my head even now, Like as we think about these big policy questions, what kind of happened to the economy? Matthew is known for saying all the time, it's an empirical question, right, Like we can have all the theory and we need that.
But you've got to go look at the data, and you've got to look really carefully at it to figure out what's going to happen.
You were right, your initial acclaim was a cute analysis of the American consumer. Forget about the distractions Musk, Trump, red Sox, Yankees, things that matter, Claudia, sum, what is the state of the American consumer?
The state of the American consumer is still good. I mean, I have a long standing mantra of like, don't set against the American consumer right when they can spend when they can, like this keeps going now, I think we can run into some constraints. This year goes on right as income slows down, If the jobs aren't as plentiful, then the consumer does you know, they are likely to pull back some. But it just we're still in a
place that's you know, relatively solid. But it's more about where we're headed right now.
So, Claudia, today, when we get this job's at data here, We've seen some data this week, whether it's jolts or ADP or claims, kind of suggest that the labor market's softening. But I don't know, it doesn't feel like it's breaking here there's any real risk, but that may change in three minutes. But how do you kind of you just broadly speaking, in this US labor market.
So I think it's important to remember that when we have big shocks in the economy, like you know, the policy changes, the terrors immigration that you know, like the labor market is not necessarily the first place we see at hits. I mean we remember in most recessions, the out't clanment rate peaks after the recession is over right,
it takes time to work its way through. So at this point we're looking for subtle signs of softening start you know, hours of reduced part time work like, and that actually tells us about potentially much bigger weakening as we go, you know, on insator this year. So this isn't the first place to see it. And frankly, other places we would look like business investment or even in the prices. We're just starting to see the hints of the policy.
So it's coming, Claudie, I want to get this in before the Jazz report. The standard error, the noise around this report. Now with immigration changing, is it getting harder and harder to guess the numbers or the ten or of the two reports.
Well, this a reality. I mean, immigration is going to be an issue. I mean, I think at this point, you know, the willingness of people who are in the United States, is immigrants to participate in our surveys has got to be slipping. And in general, we have seen a real distrust of people participating in surveys or maybe just not taking the time to participate in surveys if we don't have as much information. It's not that there's necessarily going to be a bias in the report. It's
just they're going to be noisier. And we know how much. Every first Friday of the month we study the exact number. And if they get noisier, we're going to get bounced around a lot more in terms of like what's actually happening.
Claudia sym has said for eighteen months, don't underestimate an overused word, a resilient American economic experiment. That's what we see within the tar For Claudia, this is a resilient labor economy.
Yes, I would agree, though I would also you know, reinforce that the effects of the tariffs are just at the right at the beginning. You know, we haven't seen the price increases widespread. We haven't seen it. So this is a this is a good place, This is the labor market's in a good place.
But it is not.
This is not the labor market to say twenty twenty two that was firing on all cylinders and then was being hit with rate increases and high inflation. So you know, I think that's encouraging. It is that today's numbers are very consistent with a softening, not even you know, the other the ekening, but this is not We're not done yet, but this is a good is.
A good day, Claudia. How do you think the Federal Reserve FED? Shairman J.
Powell?
How do you think the Fed is going to look at these numbers?
It takes a little bit of pressure off them because again they're what they're waiting to see, and what's going to be important for their decision is to see how the Terraff induced inflation play out, Like they really need some kind of confirmation that that inflation will be temporary.
And again we're just starting to see those prices increases come in, so it's going to be months before we see any sign even monthly data of it's trying to pull back, and it also gives time for them to see, you know, that's a kind of good tear policy around, like a low tear policy. So it just gives them some breathing space for I think, what was going to be there like they're thinking anyways, is I got to see this inflation under control.
Claudia, Thank you so much.
Claudia Sam with this New Century Advisor is really good to have her on today or the Constructive Report again her research note get that from New Century Advisors. We protect the copyright of all of our guests. Features up forty down, features up to forty five. The vix Quiescent goes from night what were you twenty, Paul?
We were twenty, like back on the Red Sox were winning right exactly back when Amy was Silverman was booking her Taylor Swift tickets right now seventeen point four to nine on the VICSA constructive take eels up a.
Little bit is well, we looked at bonds with priam Isser. We have Claudia Sam here acclaimed on American economics and now joining us Amy was Silverman RBC Capital Markets, here to dovetail in equities, the derivative space, what does it say about expectations? The game of it within the algebra the quantitative finance is to seek out not an extrapolation, but to just what's the expectation. Do you have a clue what the expectation is of equity markets by labor day?
Well, it's interesting because coming into this payrolls it was quite benign. So when you looked at the pricing ahead of NFP, there wasn't a bet there. Essentially, there wasn't a bet that at the money straddle, Tom was coming in, you know, very complacent under the normal standard deviation, and you know, I think probably given what the market reaction is,
it'll probably end up being correct. Now that changes out to September, so our term structure, those future expectations of volatility are a lot higher, and it's essentially saying to me, we've can kicked a lot of things. We're in the middle of these reprieves. That doesn't mean there isn't going to be stuff going on, It's just going to happen later.
Are your clients are they looking to buy protection here, whether it's just tweet protection, I don't know what you guys call it, but the volatility just feels like I can't predict it at all. Is there something you can provide for them on the protection side?
Well, look, I know Tom likes the Greeks a lot, but my bad wall joke is there's another Greek tweet us. So just the sensitivity of implied volatility to Donald Trump's tweets and you know, my kids will cringe, but look, it's a real thing. It really creates volatility potfoles. All you need to do is look to last night and you can see that idiosyncratic risk in Tesla. You can see it in the macro risk and that does not go away. I only think that is something that investors
have to contend with. And the one thing I'll say is, look, there is hedging going on, there is demand for that. It's in those further tenors. Because once we roll off these reprieves, we're still going to have to figure out what we do in terms of the market and the distribution of fat tails that we see.
Is it more expensive today to buy protection in the options in futures and options markets than it was a year ago.
So look, here's what I'll say a little bit yes, But when you kind of look to let's go back to Liberation Day, how expensive things have gotten. We've rolled off significantly, and I would argue that there has been a big change between last year and this year in terms of how real people think. Those tariff guardrails have
been removed. And so if I had to make a quick advertising for hedging, I would say it's relatively inexpensive considering the tales that could occur if we don't get any good resolutions.
We welcome all of you on your commune to cross the nation.
A jobs report benevolence some say front run by the president with a tweet out, an optimistic tweet out before the jobs report.
Thank you Jim Bianco for.
That perspective from Chicago. That's not my perspective, folks. That was James Bianco's tweet that was out on linking the President's tweet into this benevolent tone. Futures up forty five ivicts seventeen point thirty seven to have priam iSER with this, Claudia Sama now Amy wo Silverman had a deriv to
strategy RBC Capital Markets. Christina Campmanumok, this is the way we roll in good conversation for you on YouTube, Ammy Silverman, These forget about the moonshe out of Microsoft, which I think has been way underreported.
Here in Q two.
The absolute arc is retails on board, retails in the market, and institution CTAs all the other fancy phrases you have in your world are running around their heads cut off. What's a company like in institutional conversations right now?
Look, if you had to pit retail against institutional, I would say they probably won round one in terms of they didn't degross, they didn't de risk, they were steadily buying that dip and they have been rewarded.
Now.
It's just different, right because when you're an institutional investor, you've got to meet that benchmark for quarter end, for a year end. You don't have that simper long horizon. It's a different game. It's not fair, and that's why I think that demand for longer term hedging comes into play. But look, Tom, I think there's a real risk of a right tail crash. That has been true since post COVID.
What does that mean. That's jargon.
It just means this idea that if mag seven rips, if you have that benchmark concentration and it runs away from you as an institutional master, you have to catch up. You have to.
Okay the Poe The reason I set all this up, folks, because she's so damn good at this.
The answer is, Paul, you know you lived it. June thirty. June is busted out all over. We're twenty five days away from our lawn only by side and all the way over to rock and leverage. CTAs have to show their cards. What's a frenzy going to be on the path to June thirty end a quarter?
So I'd watch some signals in the market here. I would watch for what that call option demand is. If it starts to outweigh the put option demand either in your meg seven names and your SMP and your cues, that starts this right tail chase, which we've seen over and over again since the post COVID period. You saw it after that low in libration day, right, everyone who
degrows had to jump in the pool really quickly. We have found when we back tested over time, when that momentum starts, it takes a while for it to fade, and those dynamics are really real.
On balance. Are your clients are they net bullish or kind of a net bearish, or are they just trying to just headguway all the risks they can.
I would say, if I had to, you know, gun to my head, I would say, they're still very.
Cautious, okay.
And that's why I called it a right tail in the sense that it's a hedge to the upside.
Right.
When we look into the options market, we actually see a lot of call buying and FXI the China ETF, and EEM the merging market's ETF. I don't think that's expressing a super bullish view on China. It's the worry that if we suddenly get a resolution over the weekend, that tweet a bomb turns on again. They have to go into that chase. They have that benchmark concentration.
Legendary academics at New York University. One final question here, we're trying to get Christina KATMANI up here in a moment incredibly important and I go to NYU for this, the idea that you have to rehadge out if we get a right tail shift and all of a sudden, your world has to catch up to June thirty and beyond we get you have to rehedge out there. What's it doesn't that create almost a circuitous momentum of bye bye bye. Isn't that the heart of the matter.
Yeah, you know, people like to call it the gamma hammer, and I have.
That gamma hammer open for Pantera.
Yes, I do continue, And you know, I think that to some degree, this this risk of rerolling that strikes is something investors always contend with. But I think that's why we've seen duration trinkage, Tom. I think that's why we've seen more zero date X pre trading because of these data points kind of creating the cycle. You can't get ahead.
Of Amy with Silverman. Thank you, thank you, thank you so much.
She's the RBC Capital Markets and we thank her for jobs day perspective. She's from Villanova University, potentially working at the Vatican.
Here we'll see this straighten out.
Their bond portfolio or sitting on the Knicks bench the power of Villaines.
The coach exits.
I mean, I don't think she went a head coach Christina cat Manny with this new assistant coach for the New York next here in Global Debt and Senior portrait. If you were seriously, if you're advising with the celebration of Pope Leo, the fourteenth. If you're advising the Vatican right now about clip the coupon, I'm serious, clip the coupon or total return short term for Pope Leo's ten years, let's bring it into three years. Is it a total return space or a coupon space.
I mean it's a little bit of both.
Right.
I think we're no longer. We're no longer in a world where global that global debt everywhere is at zero and rates are at zero and you have to be in tens in the US to get two percent, right, Like you can have front end paper in the US, whether that's high grad high quality corporates, two to five years, whether it's bills, whether it's treasuries, and having some portfolio if that makes sense, and same thing. Look at rest of the world, there's yield to be had.
Yeah.
I mean again, your title is Global Debt Senior portfolio manager. Where outside the US, you guys see opportunities.
Yeah.
So when we look at it again, our general preference has been to own duration in the front end of the curve globally, so call it in that two to five year sector. And I think certainly through April, as we have had all of this uncertainty and tumult and Liberation Day, and what's going on with tariffs and kind of the fiscal concerns, and these questions of oh, like the ten years not acting as kind of that anchor.
What has five year duration in Europe has? So I think again front end and then to be invested out the curve. It's a question of where do you get enough yield, and I think they're in the long end of Japan. You've seen some steepness. There's a few places.
The President's tweet, a jobs report, Navarro's comments on a Chinese meeting. In seven days, kat Manny lifts the market up forty five, up fifty on futures and the yield space, Paul moves, we're up to three basis points and now the ten year yield four point four or five percent, we're up six basis points, five basis points out the.
Curve, yep move into markets. Credit risk.
How much credit risk are you guys come to taking these days?
So we have some but again, when we look across our three levers that we can pull FX, rates and credit, it's probably our least favorite because credit spreads are still tight historically, and look we're not at a point that we're very concerned about imminent recession, severe recession. We're not at so, and we don't have like an immediate funding wall for corporations, but level spreads are tight. So again this kind of two to five year short paper high quality,
there's value there. Otherwise, I think all of these economic kind of driving forces, FX is the clearest channel of where they impact it. So that's kind of probably our favorite lever. And then this is a bit in the middle.
Well, you mentioned FX. I mean the dollar's been just hasn't had any rebound like other risks of US stocks have rebounded, the dollars not. What is that, oh you guys? Or hows it informed your bond?
Yeah?
Suction?
So I think it really is a broader story. And the question is is this a real regime shift for the dollar in our view? As it is, and even when you've seen almost a ten percent kind of broad dollar move year to date, again we still think that can you have another ten to fifteen percent dollar down move? Yes? Is that a one month number? No? Of course not. It's probably a theme that's here to stay because you take a step back and you say, what's twenty twenty five.
We've broken kind of this multilateral trading system globally that's been the base case for the last fifty years. You've broken up kind of the global security order of the US being the backstop there, and so you have things
like German fiscal and all of these big changes. And even if you the courts say tariffs can't happen, or we are pausing on tariffs like the genies out of the bottle, and the rest of the world has to think of what is with the uncertainty of policy, what is the risk premium that there needs to be to own the dollar in a tire?
So where to Paul's earlier question, quickly we're running out of time. Where geographically is the best opportunity to capture coupon? Is it guilts? Is it German industrial paper? Is it something I don't know about? I mean, where is that global yield? I need a coupon opportunity?
Yeah, I think it's like there are Barbell places right, Like there's certainly a place in a portfolio for this front end US paper. I think out the curve in the UK, there is some opportunity in the long end of gilts and you have a steep curve there, and then you look at things like bank paper in Europe or again like there's some high quality corporate paper in Europe that known Australia government bombs and semi there's value there.
They're called kangaroos. Yep, exactly.
That won't make it real.
Christina, thank you so much. It's brilliant.
Christina Cameni with us with Invesco here out of Villanova and the Course.
With Invesco.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I'm gonna name some names, Sia.
They're three Dreep with a hat trick, Webov, Taniga zeisstron Ju Tom I think it's Tom Ju and Travis Axelrod. That's the management of Tesla around one other guy. When musk Get's done with his must Trump battle and he goes back to Tesla, what does he go back to in terms of running a business?
Dan I's with us, web Bush great to be here.
Look and obviously a twilight Zone day, you know, the last twenty four hours. I mean, look to me, the whole vision of Tesla, it's about autonomous.
It all starts, okay, but you didn't answer my question. He goes out to Austin, Texas. What's there to pick up the pieces?
Well, I mean, if you look the engineer, I would argue, the best engineers in the world. If you look at Tesla's SpaceX, I mean it's foundational. I think around the world in terms of the best engineering and when it comes to scale and scope, from Fremont to Tesla to what we have in China to everything else, Tesla continues
to be unmatched. And I just view everything that they've seen from a demand perspective is a near term narrative of the story that will be short lived because the future the value I believe it's a trillion dollars of value and for autonomous alone, that is the focus from USK, that is the focus for Tesla.
Just remind us Dan, what is the dependence of tes so the company on government support? Just freshless kind of how that relationship is, because I think people are concerned that maybe that relationship could be at risk and it could have impact some of the economics.
When I think there's obviously regulatory credits that they lose and if you go back, not as much today, but that was a huge part of their profits early on. I think the bigger thing is around the tax credits in terms of seventy five hundred hours that in the bill does proposed that essentially would disappear. That probably hurts demand We'll say, let's say five seven, potentially ten percent in terms of you know, a typical customer that might not do an Evy and might not do a Tesla.
But when you look at.
The government some of the Trump sort of threats, that is much more around space Ax than Tesla in terms of some of those concerns.
So we assume that Elon Musk is he's out of dose, he's out of government, he's back to work. What does that mean for Tesla? Have you heard any reporting or have you heard from your context about is he back on the floor, is he back in design discussions, what's going on?
He's been back on the factory. I mean the point is like this is something where they need their leader back in their biggest asset, and that's Musk. And I think you'll see despite what we've seen the last twenty four hours that you will see a driven Musk and we're gonna look in the next six, nine, twelve months and it's going to be I think, a huge chapter of growth.
One more question in this silliness.
I want to get to the importance of Apple on Monday, elon Musk from where you sit.
I don't want any of this tabloid New York Post crap. I want to know, do you.
Feel that the allegations of drug use intrude on him giving optimum performance to Tesla?
Look, I mean it's my own view is like with Musk, it always comes obviously a lot of baggage, but that's also that's not something I think Moose investors really that shy away from. I think they focus on Musk as an engineer, focus on must really as a as a politicians.
You need a surprise out of Coupertino. Here, you're going up, You've got you know, you have a leer, you don't have a gulf stream.
You're not yet just there.
Well, when you go for the ETF goes public, you know, you get up with the six help me here with Apple here coming up?
Look, I think Monday and we'll be there it's a very important DAYLOP for WWC, the Developer Conference for Apple the yearly one. The reason it's so important, and you know we've talked about on the show a bunch, is that you go back to a year ago the AI vision Apple Intelligence. Clearly they were late and a why that really never came to fruit. But the developers are
the hearts and lungs of Apple. They basically they need when it comes to iOS, when it comes to the future role show developers, when it comes to AI, this is the platform that you're going to build on.
Let's get up front on this.
They have an agreement with Google on search right, Yes, everyone's happy, except for regulators, et cetera.
Why don't they do an agreement?
Drop a bombshell Monday on Gemini on Google Gemini, I don't get it.
Look, I think a lot of these things. I think there's so many things that are on the table potentially in terms of what they could announce and even what they could start to show breadcrumbs about when you're perplexity and some others. In other words, the big issue for Apple right now is that they know the regulators. Indeed, you know, if you think about do OJ and others that they're into the cop in the spider web of They need to be careful too in terms of partnerships.
They need to make sure that they don't continue to sort of go down the path that everything they do is going to get fought. And I think that's why Google is going to continue to be a huge partner of theirs.
Email comes in here, missus King emails in.
Is Dan wearing real snow milk?
Did you spill something?
Yes? That that is and that she nailed it.
She nailed it.
For those of you on radio, it's a certain look.
Is this going to be a collab or is anything we want to announce it?
F I mean, we'll have more coming out in the summer, but we will where the summer be having a clothing clab.
Which clab?
Yeah, it's gonna be a Dan Ives collection. And I'm gonna make sure Keen. I'm gonna make sure we have one for Keen and and and one for Paul and one for.
All the clab collabs are two x. None of it would fit us. Oh, they barely get into lease.
Come on for the cool kids, Dan, real quick there, I'm looking at Apple. Do you when you talk to your institutional investors around the world. Did they ever say May the stock is down twenty percent this year, It's flat over the last twelve months. I'm frustrated, which you know, we rarely have that kind of discussion with Apple, But are you having a discussions that plays up.
There's a lot of frustration because really it's kind of been a treadmill and it's been an underperformer. But but I, just like I have for decades, walk investers through. You have to be able to see the free cash flow, you have to be able to understand the install base. You have to seventy percent of the world's on access in AI device through Apple.
Then we keep you on for another hour, but it's jobs day. We don't care. Dan, I thank you so much.
WebBook Congratulations on a newly minted ETF.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple Cockplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Right now a perfect time to speak to Kelly Cox, chief market strategists at Ridholts Wealth Management, Kelly, guess the anguish of those in cash right now? Is it a normal OMG I'm missing out or is there something unusual.
Into the end of the quarter.
Well, they're getting four percent right now if they've if they've done some searching, So I can't I can't imagine the English is too bad, especially because you missed the April volatility. But Tom, I've been shocked by how resilient the stock market has been. I mean, the stock market has always been resilient, but there hasn't really there hasn't been that economic confirmation to really make me feel better about this rebound.
Kelly.
One of the drivers of this, obviously, of the markets in general, are earnings growth, and I think there's some concern out there about earning trowth. We see earnings estimates come down. Have they come down enough or are they still a risk as more and more of these tariffs kind of find their way into the economy.
Well, it's interesting because companies had a really good first quarter on the surface, and SMP earnings grew almost fourteen percent, and that was a good six or seven percentage points above what analysts expected at the beginning of the season. But the guidance that we got, which you know, you guys, you guys have talked to me enough, you know that I'm always talking about the guidance and looking ahead, the
guidance was pretty weak. We saw some companies withdraw we saw the biomodal guidance, and we saw earnings revisions for the year continuously cut and cut and cut. So now earning growth is expected to be around seven percent for the year, and I got to think that there are a lot there's a wide disparity that could sit on either side of that number because we certainly we just
simply don't know where trade policy could be. It's probably not going to be as bad as what we first thought it would be on April second, but it still doesn't feel like analysts know how to quite deal with the trade policy impact on profits.
Given that maybe some of the earnings uncertainty hear if no other reasons, then we just don't know what trade policy will be. Are there certain sectors or certain areas you guys feel more comfortable maybe just parking some money.
Well it red holds. We really like value. We especially like it because our investors are investing for five years, ten years, decades down the road, and we want them to have the smoothest ride possible. Because we're all human, we're trying to sleep at night, so we generally lean towards value. But we think right now is actually a smart time to lean away from those sectors with high expectations. I know this is a hard thing to say, but
Tech is at the top of that list. You know, obviously Tech is being thrown around by a number of different factors right now, especially this morning. I mean, look at Tesla, but Tech, I think people forget is one of the highest exposed sectors when it comes to international revenue and cost of goods exposure. And you know, if you have restrictive trade policy there, then you know Tech is probably going to get hit one way or the other.
Say there, Kelly, We're going to come back to you.
We need to get the markets open right now. We do a data check, Kelly Cox. Look, equity bonds, currencies come out of these with Verry Redults at Redults Wealth Management, So too, do we futures up.
Fifty seven right now?
It's a one percent move the vics from that twenty weeks ago.
The angst comes.
Into a hugely bull market seventeen point one four on the Vixy yield space up off the jobs report, but then velocity to a higher yield four point ninety three percent in the thirty year bond four point four to six percent, make it four point four to seven percent of the ten year yield, the ten year real yield two point one three percent.
We stagger to the open.
We staggered with John Tucker, all right.
Right at the get go, we are higher down Jones Industrial average up three hundred and twenty three points, arise about eight tenths of a percent, the S and P five hundred and fifty three points higher, That is a nine tenths of a percent right now. All eleven major industry groups in the S and P five hundred are higher. The NASTAC one hunter get in the first trades there one percent higher, up two hundred and twenty two points.
Most actively traded in the early going shares of Tesla right now four percent higher, followed by Nvidia up just about two percent, and Graham Holdings the third most actively traded stock that is three percent higher. And that is your opening bill report. We check the markets for you all day long right here on Bloomberg Radio. I'm John Tucker. That is your Bloomberg Business Flash Paul and Tom.
John Tucker, Thanks so much. Kelly co with this with Ruhold's Wealth Management. Kelly, are we in a bull market? I just said that, and somebody said a note in and said time, it's not a bull market. Kelly Cox, Are we in a bull market? Oh?
Yeah, it's the right person.
Because I argue with my colleagues about this all the time. I take the investor's point of view. I look at it on a closing basis, and when it comes to when it comes to closing prices, the S and P has not yet fallen twenty percent from a high. Now you could say intra day that happened, because it did.
But I still think we're in a bull market. I'm not exactly excited and you know, really really optimistic about the future, but we are still in a bull market, and I think as long as we are, you do have to wonder if stocks can climb a wall of worry here.
So, Kelly, what do you think of the are you guys trying in your portfolio? Are you trying to structure in a slower economy with some of your positioning here, or maybe something even worse, or are you just saying, you know what, we're going to look through all this near term noise and think about the next five to ten years.
Well, we're doing the latter. We're looking through all this noise.
You know.
We generally, I kind of go back to what I was saying a few minutes ago, how we build portfolios aim towards stability and consistency. In a way, those portfolios actually do look like the kind of portfolio you want in a time like this, when job growth is slowing, when the economy is weakening, when there are a lot of reasons to be nervous out there. We lean into quality. We lean into volume, sorry, not volume value, you know. We we try to structure portfolios that can get you
a consistent rate of return. So right now, we're really proud of our international exposure. We're glad international stocks are working, and you know, quite frankly, we're glad the stock market is working. It's just a time to be very mindful of risks and manage those risks.
And twenty nine points we quote the Dow for Barry red Hols just Tesla up to twelve points, make it thirteen points. Come off. Let me get that low yesterday. I could do this with the Bloomberg Professional Service to seventy four, and we're now racking to ninety seven.
I'm looking at the Internet Circle Internet Group CrCL up another eighteen percent today. Stock was up one hundred and sixty percent yesterday, and it's IPO. I don't know what this signals. I mean, I'd like to think it signals the IPO market maybe is better in better shape than we thought. CALLI when when you see a stock like Circle Internet or just anything but an IPO that trades up so much, what do you guys make of that?
Well, it at least shows the animal spirits are here. And I'm again a little confused as to why there are such strong animal spirits right now. I mean, maybe that's just the resiliency of the retail investor, or, of the everyday investor who you know still feels like they're at a good place with their finances, job markets weakening. But it's it's clearly having it's clearly a little more
bifurcated than we think. I don't think this lasts very long, especially with so much business uncertainty out there, but for now the IPO window is open and investors are liking it.
Kelly, Thank you.
Kelly Cox has short notice the real Who's Wealth Management?
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I don't know why, but May and June and maybe it's the ferment of the moment of Washington, the war in Ukraine. The quality of the writing now across all politics is exceptional. I've been remiss in not bringing you the great voices out there. Jennifer Harris, out of Wake Forest, is one of the great thinkers about getting beyond the politics that we used to know. She joins us now it is a piercing essay and foreign affairs magazine, the
post neoliberal imperative. Jennifer honored to have you with us here. What's a neoliberal? Define that?
Sure, it's an imperfect term, essentially referring to the economic recipe that has prevailed really across the political spectrum since Reagan arrived on the scene. So a deep confidence in markets to allocate capital effectively and a corresponding skepticism about the ability of government to sort of shape markets that you know, catches out in policy terms towards deregulation, you know, freer trade, free movement, accounty in.
The political battle of twenty six twenty eight. I haven't said this Yetpon, I'm depressed of thirty two.
That's Michael Barr.
We can still be working at.
Thirty two now, probably will, Okay.
Jennifer, I'm depressed in the political battle our two presidential generations. Is there any understanding of what a new Washington consensus looks like?
I think there is. I mean, I think we've really been working on the next script, so to speak, the next consensus about what makes for good economic policy. Since Trump's arrival on the scene in twenty sixteen, right, he upended a whole lot of these sort of nostrums or pieces of conventional wisdom about what makes for good economic policy.
And you saw a fair bit of consensus across both right and left on rethinking trade, on a new willingness to embrace industrial policy, on you know, sort of a different philosophy around antitrust, and I think at least on the left and maybe on the right, rethinking monetary policy. We saw the Phillips curve essentially break over the last couple of years, a sense that we may not have to manufactures in order to get inflation down. So, you know, I think that you see the seeds of rethinking on
both right and left. That's what journalists like Dave Wonhard at New York Times has called a new centrism. So I think you do see signal amidst the beluminous noise, let's say, of Washington.
The President Trump and his followers seemed to have really taken over the GOP as we all grew up with.
It.
Is that something that can outlive President Trump? Do you think?
I do you think so anything? It's a generation shift. Look at a lot of you know, under forty under forty five staffers on the right, organizations like American Compass, they are actually out there pushing for revenue increases in the current tax fight, which is the last time I checked. Not Paul Ryan's a Republican Party and not not anything that Grover Norquist is in out there comfortable with. And yeah, it's really part of the debate and do I think
it's going to prevail this time. No, But just the fact that we're having that kind of to be on writ of center, you know, and as these high stakes questions are really getting called, I think is testament to the sea change and thinking.
Jennifer, Thank you so much, Jennifer Harris, writing and Foreign Foreign Affairs co chair build US and of course your former public city of the service to the nation with the National Security at Council.
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