Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.
Unfair to go to Claudia Sim here to continue this dialogue. We will, but for doctor Sam, she of course professionally digests to voluminous reports as well. Claudia, Where when I say go beneath the headline data, where does Claudia Sam go beneath the headline data?
Well, I mean the first place that I went to look, you know, seeing the unemployment rate tickup, which is a tick, not anything to get too worked up about, but just to see what was happening with labor force participation if that can kind of be the good reason to explain it away. And that doesn't that doesn't seem to be what's going on there, So that is something to keep an eye on. We've seen that employment really like flatten out,
so it's a concern. But in general, I mean this is there's I don't know, like it doesn't seem like a lot to react to here.
So you sound like somebody on the second floor the Echos Building.
You know, you get to go into the room.
Once a year if you're a twenty eight year old PhD newly minted at the Echoes Building. What are you telling governor's presidents and the chairman.
Well, if they were consensus, they can go in and say they nailed their forecast. I mean really like getting something hard like payrolls and going through the hurricanes and the strike. It's this is really more of an art than a science. And what they are trying to pull out of here is what is that underlying pace? Like what's the three month change? How are things going? And really it looks like we're kind of we're kind of
back where we were before hurricanes. So like it seems to be giving a pretty consistent story of the slowing, but nothing like real shocking.
Here.
See how doctor Sam goes to the three month moving average.
I mentioned that an hour ago.
Yeah, I mean, Paul, that's that's the way we roll.
That's the way we roll.
And Tom, I'll just note the revisions from last month. We were twelve thousand was the reported number, revised up to thirty six thousand. Just to put that out there, doctor Salm here. So if I'm the Federal Reserve, I have to feel.
Like I'm doing I'm doing my job.
I might even pat myself on the bats here, you know.
So do I cut rates in December? Then just wait?
I think they've you know, they've been doing this kind of look ahead and this is very I'm sure consistent with where they thought the data were going to end up today largely, and so they're on a path to have a cut in December to keep this pulling some restrictiveness out of the economy, doing it gradually, and I think this ought to support that. Now, the main of the last roadblock to the December cut, which I think the Fed is very much on track to do. The
last roadblock is next week's CPI. But even that, I mean they've had a plan, They've articulated it.
Claudia, I've got to go one final question to all the character of Michigan academics, and that is the study of inflation. Can we use our usual tools to study this modern inflation? Are we so overwhelmed by technology it's shift to productivity that we can't measure inflation with a confidence. That Gramlechain Company told us we could.
Do well our statistics, the way we measure inflation or any other aspect of the economy. They're always evolving. The beer of labor statistics is always bringing in new data and new tools. They're refining it. They don't you know, it's not the stuff of headlines. But we do have to keep up with the technology and the changes. And I think largely US statistical agencies do a good job.
There's always more more to do, but it does, you know, bring it's fine to have more tools in the toolkit and that awareness, and we should have an awareness that no number that comes out, whether it is well crafted, is the truth. Right, Like these are estimates. This is our best estimate of what's going on.
Claudia, thank you so much. Claudia, Simon is Century advisors all over work at the FED and of course of Michigan. Is Paul mentioned this earlier. The revision is twelve thousand up to thirty six thousand. The some two month total is fifty six thousand positive revision. You add them together to twenty seven plus fifty six. I don't have the HP twelve C in front of me. I'm guessing two eighty three good is a constructive number here to develop a three month moving average and to be thematic.
Yep, that's a new word. We're thematic.
What thematic?
Joining us now from Morgan Stanley, she's thematic.
She's writing your condoms as we speak, Tom she is.
I mean, it's gifted thematic in macro investing.
Sarah Wolf joins us.
Right now, that's my theme today, forget about the noise. Grabb three months moving average? Is that what you're doing.
I'm looking at all the underlying details and it's kind of just showing that the economy is in a solid place and we're not going to see much market price market moving around this. We're going to look towards the CPI data. But the economy is chugging along. It's in a good place, so we don't need to put on more cuts for next year, and it's not so high that we need to take off cuts as well for December.
If you look at the underlying trend, we're probably running at around one hundred and fifty thousand a month, which is a pretty good place to be right now.
For Powell.
I mean, I look at.
The wage number Paul mentioned to tick better than we are. Do we have and inflation adjusted real wage at leasta Mateo questions.
That we're having real wage gains, that's for sure. If you get CPI data next week at point three percent, then that's an increase in real average hourly earnings. That's one of the reasons why we see a little bit of improvement and low income spending next year, because you're finally getting that real buying power. Back Wages still are now rising above inflation. We've been waiting for that to happen, and now we're starting to see it. And it's pretty sustainable.
Thanks to Eric from the back row here, interest rate swap traders are signing an eighty two percent chance of a rate cut at the FED December eighteenth meeting.
That's according to EJ Market.
It's the same study that's gutsing. We're one Sodo's card.
Yeah please, who knows the highest dollar? So, Sarah, I'm again, if I'm the Federal Reserve, I'm calling soft landing, right, I mean, I think we got to give these folks some credit here.
Yeah.
Well, if you look at the underlying details, it's even better than the headline because you're not getting an extraordinarily extraordinary amount of strength in these holiday shopping categories, which is where I think markets were expecting there to be more strength. So retail trade was actually down twenty eight thousand on the month. Transportation warehousing was a mere three thousand,
so we didn't really get that big upside. That means that you actually got a lot more breadth in payroll gains. So financial activities were strong, professional business services, more confidence in these white collar jobs. And then we're still getting hiring at the lower end of the income distribution, education, health, leisure, and hospitality. So I do think that the breath in the payroll print is notable.
She gets numbers that we don't get. She gets the special numbers. I don't know.
Just so let me translate this, folks.
If you're in a fancy firm, I whte you firm like Morgan Stanley, it's leisure and hospitality. Here at Bloomberg Surveillance, it's bartenders.
Okatu, So Sarah, I mean as we step back here, I mean in twenty twenty five, how are you guys thinking about this US economy? What's your GDP outlook, what's your inflation outlook? Are you constructive or do you have some concerns out there.
Yeah, So first let me talk about the labor market for next year, because we're here right now. If we're getting tighter immigration policy, you could actually start to see that unemployment rate push down lower, right because you're removing labor supply from the economy, and wages could go a
little bit higher. So it's going to be an interesting dynamic next year where payroll growth could be quite a bit softer because you have less population growth somewhere to the tune of fifty thousand to one hundred thousand a month. That looks we compared to where we've been running the last couple of years, but that's still going to reflect a very tight labor market because it's coming from the
supply side. On GDP growth, we have about two percent for GDP, so that's a that's a slowdown from where we are this year. Nonetheless, there's a lot less downside risk recessionary risks. Right, there's policy risk, but we're moving away from the recession risk, and that's one of the reasons why market's gonna be a little bit more optimistic even with a weaker GDP growth.
And your commune across America, good morning, and thank you for joining Paul Sweeny and myself Apple Car Play, Android Auto. Thank you Serious XM channel one twenty one. They showed me those numbers two days ago. Wow, thank you for joining and Serious X. I'm on the corn ninety nine and one FM Washington up to Mount Katat a little chili today.
I bet you, I bet you.
I'll check Mount Washington here in a moment.
See we need a hot toddy at the Breton at Mount Washington Hotel. Good morning ninety two nine FM in Boston is well, what do we have upcoming here? We got mar Sarah Wolf with us right now, Kathy Jones will join us, and then very importantly an extensive conversation with Lori Kelvis on this great bull market killing it today, small sacks rustles up nine tenths of a percent year, more volatile than the other. Sarah Wilfelm, Morgan Stanley with
us right now. Where's nominal GDP? Where's the animal spirits? Next year? Are you telling me we get to sustained five percent? Or do we dip down a little bit? Not in the letharg but we just finally pull it back.
I think we could start the year around five or six percent. And then's likely did you say six five to six percent? I mean, if we're still getting GDP growth at three percent, I think there could be a little bit of upsiding consumer spending in the beginning of the year. Think about the wealth effect that's going to start to come through in early twenty twenty five. We've had a really significant rally in equities and that's going
to pass through into some consumer spending. Then you get a little bit of a rebound and lower income households as well. And then I think we start to get a bit of that slow down with immigration policy, with tariffs, and so markets need to be watching that slow down that could start to hit the middle to the end of twenty twenty five, and I think that the fixed income are are definitely aware of that. Equity seemed to be a little bit more excited.
Did that?
Why now I learned that from Mike Wilson. Yes, a little more excited your hedge.
I know, I know, Sarah.
Did anything change for you guys at Morgan Stanley from the economic and strategy standpoint? The day after the election, we now have a Republican president about to take office. The Congress Republican, although maybe not as wavy as some people would think, but still a Republican controlled Congress.
Did that change your outlooks your forecast?
Yeah, our economics team definitely took up inflation a bit for next year. Right, we had inflation coming down closer to two percent by the end of twenty twenty five. Now it's looking closer to two and a half percent because you're getting that inflationary effect from tariffs. What that also means is that you have to take cuts off the table if Fed's not gonna be able to cut that much next year. We have three cuts in our forecast.
The Fed's likely going to have to take some cuts out of their forecast at the December Summary of Economic Projections next week, and that's going to reflect higher inflation not only for this year, but they're also going to try to be modeling out the policies for next year in their own projections, and it could lift up their expectations for inflation.
Tell me, one of the.
Themes is we got a three percent GDP.
Growth in China. You know who knows, but.
The answer is is a subdued Pacific rim You got NX off the back of the equation. When you say here's our as Allarian would say, here's our unknown unknowns. How unknown is the export dynamic globally which frankly Morgan Stanley invented the analysis.
I'll tell you what I'm watching the closest. It's what's going to happen with Mexico and Canada, because even though we have a lot of trade with China, we're way more exposed to Mexico and Canada. Our value chain, our supply chain is completely interlinked with these two economies. It's a quarter of US trade to Mexico and Canada. Eighty percent of exports from those two countries come to the US. So of course tariffs are being used as a negotiating
tactic as we go into the US MCA. But if we really do see an increase in tariffs there, that's going to be something to watch and that's going to really hurt US manufacturing.
I mean, the uncertainty back end here is just amazing because you take, you know, whatever the math is on that exports is a percentage of total GDS seed. The consumer gets all the attention, right, but I'm sorry, NX is not a small matter. It's not a small get one more Kelvi Seed is waiting to get one more Martam Sace.
We've got her in our studio here.
So, sir, what's the headwind out there that maybe we're not thinking about, maybe the market's not thinking about her.
Are you guys penciling out some concerns out there?
I would say the biggest headwind is that even though you're going to get an extension of the Tax Cutting Jobs Act, it's mostly going to be benefiting upper income households, right, and so you need to think about how much of that actually starts to pass through into stronger consumer spending.
And I'm talking about twenty twenty six now right, a little bit further out on the outlook, households tend to spend savings when you're that high income, if you're getting four hundred thousand or above, So do we really get that much upside to economic activity?
The old days? You don't remember this CJ.
Lawrence bear Stearn's David malpis John writing whatever. In the old days, people like you would model out thirty six months. The only thing I can model out right now for twenty twenty six is Ellen Zetner's going fly fishing somewhere.
That's the only thing I know.
Can you really go out even to July of next year with any confidence?
We have to talk about all the uncertainties, but what I could say is maybe a near term uncertainty we're getting University of Michigan at ten AM. We've started to get a little bit more data on business confidence as well. The hope right is that now that we're past the election, we can start to get some animal spirits from consumers, from businesses, they could start hiring again. The biggest worry right now is that hiring has been slowing down for
two years. Now, can that start to stabilize? That's what the FED really wants to see. And how big of the election plate I get.
Elect Yeah, Sarah, I got to get this in. One more question then, if hiring has been slowing down for two years, why do I have a sub five percent unemployment rate? And the answers what immigration in the unknown?
I mean, layoffs have stayed really low. You're not seeing hiring come down and layoffs pick up as we normally do. Right people are ill retaining their workers. There's this uncertainty effect that's weighing on hiring. But it's not so bad such that people need to start getting rid of their workers.
Sarah.
Thank you Sarah Wolf with this here this morning with Morgan Stanley. Just you can't say enough about what we've lined up here. The team. You know, the interns aren't the same in December, Paul, because they are in the summer.
No, you know, in the.
Summer they're out there that they're you know the bar at Grand Central Station underneath.
The oh yeah, you know Park Avenue. I can't remember the name of that.
There's not a bar.
I don't know that the kids in the summer are there in the winter they're working. This is really great setup. Thank you Sarah so much. Sarah Wolf. With Morgan Stanley joining us now in my theme for the end of the year is this great bullmarket one of the charms of Lori Kelvisina. You're never gonna hear her say go to cash. She is in the market. Laurie, rip up
the script going forward here in the next year. Do you really finally see a shift to that once every ten years small cap performance or does Mags step still reign supreme?
All right, well, thanks for having me, Tom, And look, you know I I unfortunately think that things are just going to stay choppy for a while. And if you look back to twenty sixteen, twenty eighteen, the early days of the first Trump administration, we had three distinct trades into small cap relative to large cap. They were short lived, They were they were sort of fickle, They were really powerful.
While they lasted, they unwound really fast. And I do feel like we're set up for a chopping environment again, and that is with a big caveat unless we can get a clearly hot economy. So I think the things you really need to see for small caps to embark on a longer term out performance cycle reacceleration in job growth. We just got a little bit of color on, you know how it's been decelerating for quite some time. You need to see things like ism manufacturing. We're stuck at
the bottom there. We need to really see that uplift. And we need hot GDP. GDP forecasts are trending at two point or two point zero percent for next year. You need something more like two six, two seven historically for small caps to really outperform, and we're just not there yet.
Laurie, my good friend Jim Kramer over at the Death Start, and Jim would always say it's like baseball, thirty percent of the stocks are going to do well, seventy percent of the stocks are not going to do well, Which thirty percent of the stocks do I want to be in.
So look, I would say I still like financials at this point in time, and I know it's gotten uber consensus, and I think we really have to watch the valuations closely in the new year. But if we go back to that small cap part of the market, I do still see a lot of room for those to continue. And I do think we're only about halfway through and
earning's revision, recovery and banks. So I think you want to be selective here in large calf we just upgraded communication services, it's cheap, it's had good, solid earnings and revenue revision trends, and there's not really as much political, you know, sort of relevance to that sector frankly in the next year. So I think you want to own different things in different parts of the market cap spectrum, but just be really really, you know, sort of focused
on the individual stocks, focused on the individual industries. And I don't even necessarily think it's a mag seven versus everything else kind of marketing at this point.
I mean import your folks. Is we got a whole secret like CIA know espionage message system here that we go back and forth on and I'm getting tidbits. Paul particularly has given me information all the time.
Gura never gives me anomation. I got nothing nothing.
Gurs like they're playing at the grand old Opry. Thank you, David.
I really needed that.
You sent me a note THEA the day Golden Sacks at six hundred?
Yes, how about that?
Wow?
How about that?
Are good friends over there at Goldman Sec.
Laurie.
When you're out there, I know you travel a lot visiting RBC clients all over the world. What's the pushback you get from clients about this market? Is it valuation? Is it just earnings fatigue? What kind of pushback do you get on maybe an optimistic call in the market.
So I would say this week, if I'm just and I've just been on the road the last couple of days, I sensed a lot of nervousness. I started pulling clients, you know, saying, are you bullsh are you verish? Are you you know, cautiously optimistic? Optimistic but cautious, And I think people were sort of in those latter two camps, you know, I had a number of people say, look, you know, the market's just going to keep trading up in the short term, but we're really worried about what happens,
you know, say in January or February. I had other clients who said, you know, we think next year is going to be good, but we're sort of worried about, you know, kind of trends in the second half of
the year. So I think in general what I'm sensing is nervousness on sentiment, how propy it's become sentiment, you know, and positioning as well, and really a lot of concern about valuations, and also a lot of concern that we've pulled some of the tailwinds forward into the price and so there's you know, probably near term optimism but overshadowed by longer term concerns.
LORII, Do managements have degrees of freedom to act? One of my arch themes, folks, is managements adapt and adjust way more than what the street thinks. LORI Does corporate management across all SMP sectors do they still have wiggle room to adapt and to adjust to events that are handed to them.
So if you listen to what they've been saying since the election, and you know, we and I'll be honestly, I've read the last few days worth of you know, conference transcripts and earning transcripts. But you know, if I think back, you know, to the beginning of the week where my reading was current, they're still telling the story that they are right. And so they're generally going back.
There's tons and tons of questions on tariffs, and they're going back and they're saying, well, you know, we managed through this very well. We've recalibrated supply chains, YadA, YadA, YadA, And they said similar things after SVB right, a totally different issue, but really emphasize their ability to sort of manage through a challenge. I think what I'm maybe concerned about on this tariff issue is that a lot of the commentary has been focused on, well, we've reduced our
China footprint. Well, you know, we don't have as much China exposure as we used to, and we've moved some things into Southeast Asia or Mexico. And to the extent that you think this tariff challenge is going to be different than the first one that we went through, in twenty eighteen twenty nineteen. It's not clear to me that companies have really figured out how to hand that yet.
I would say the other thing is cost pressure seem to be coming back, and the tone on earnings has been a little bit more negative the last two quarters, and margin expectations are coming down on sell side consensus estimates for next year. So I do wonder if we're starting to run out a little bit.
Paul YadA, YadA, YadA, is CFA level four? Miriam has that is boring our empty talk? Oh okay that just so you know, YadA for our international audience, we got to translate yaada.
Sorry, Hey Lorie, what's what screens well for you guys going into twenty twenty five here? I mean that's I don't want to be boring and just say I'm want to you know, like like Tom Keane just owned a magnificent seven and clip combines.
What else are we doing here?
Look?
You know, I think if we if we sort of veer away right from the financials, which we all know about in the comm services upgrade that we just had. I've been noodling over the energy sector as well, and we've kept an overweight on there hasn't worked out, but if we look into next year, it's still a very very cheap sector. It's still an area where the policy mix seems more favorable in terms of potential tailwinds and
headwinds in the year ahead. And one thing we're worried about with a lot of different sectors, frankly, is the impact of a stronger dollar on earnings revisions and energy sensitivity is a bit lower there than other sectors. So that's another one we're sticking with. And I've actually found, you know, sort of good interest in that call. We've also found good interest in our upgrade of comm services earlier this week. And I think, you know, again, financials
are consensus. And as we dug into that, we've said, look, you know, the capital markets names the investment banks look a little pricey on our work, but if you look at the traditional banks, especially the smaller banks insurance companies, there are pockets within financials that still have good valuation appeal. So I do think you want to be a bit more selective in the financials.
Laurie Ampleton, thank you so much. Really appreciate the RBC Capital markets as well. This came in from someone you know off YouTube live chat. The momosas today we have in Tito's or the momosas short.
That's how roll jobs day? Yeah, why not jobs Day? Have some fun here?
They have little cute like like like golf stick things. They have little puppets that they put over the bottles.
Now they say Tito's they're orange?
Do they?
Okay?
Yeah?
I don't know how I knew them. You know that Bill likes Titos. Yes, Tito's joining us. Now help me here, Bob. Do we have miss Jones?
Honest? Kathy Jones joins us and Charles Schwab. Thank you Kathy for having us finish the hour here a strong I got a jobs day, I got to continue to equity lift is well? What this is the key thing with Schwab. What are we doing now? What we're talking about but Kathy Jones, what are Schwab high net worth individuals doing with their money?
Well, they're enjoying the ride right now because things have gone pretty well in terms of fixed income. What we're saying is people are looking at some of these yields and saying, you know, for that part of my portfolio, I like five percent plus. Whether it's investment great corporate bonds or you know, tax adjusted muni bonds, they've been treasuries. They're giving you a pretty decent yield. We're saying a little bit of caution just because we don't know how
far the FED will go. But I do think people are looking at these yields and saying, Okay, I'm a little more assured that these yields are, you know, near the upper end of where we're going to be. So they're moving out a little bit on the curve.
So, Kathy, I can't help, but notice, I mean I look at my end go function kind of gives you the returns for a cross fixed income and boy, the high yield and leverage loan spaces. I mean, you know, high eight percent, nine percent returns here to date. I'm surprised that that part of the market's been so strong. How do you think about that part of the market these days?
Yeah, you've had really easy financing conditions. You know, you've had rates coming down that's a tailwind, have high coupons that's a tailwind. And then what you've had in a lot of this is a pride credit folks taking out the weaker players in the high yel market. So high heel market has changed, is evolving to be less junkie
than it has been in the past. And we've had a good economic environment and corporate earnings going up, so it's been it's been a pretty good backdrop for riskier parts of the fixed income market, as it has been for the equity market. You know, high yield tends to be highly correlated with equities, so not too surprising there, all right.
So I guess the question is here for twenty twenty five. Given the strong returns across fixed income you know, again green pretty much across most of the spaces here, where is their value in twenty twenty five as you kind of think about the global fixed income space.
Yeah, you know, I wouldn't say anything is a screaming you know, undervaluation at this stage of the game. Everything's pretty fairly valued. And you could argue that in some parts of the market, like corporate bond valuations are pretty rich because the spread yield spread versus treasuries are really really tight. And I would say that that's true and
high yield. It'd have to be sort of cautious there because everything's fine until it isn't in high yield, and then you know, the spreads move, but we're also just focusing on the all in yield, and you know, buyers and fixed income usually buy for the income, and it's a pretty attractive level here. So I would just be cautious about going too far out the respectrum, particularly in my yield, but in general the backdrop is still positive.
Kathy, thank you so much.
Too short of visit. Let's see it longer next time. Kathy Jones with us of Charles Schwab.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and and Broyte Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I want to go through there because I think it's important. If you're a kid in Brooklyn and this is a few years back, and you're uncommonly brilliant, you just end up at Princeton University and you do better than good, and there's a thing called Summa cum laude. This is a few years ago, and then you wander through to the London School of Economics and then you have the privilege of being advised in MIT by the giant of
economic growth, Robert Solo. That is a path of Alan Blinder, the former vice chairman, joined us now honored.
That he could be with us today.
Alan Blinder, what was the first day with Robert Solo?
Like?
What the intimidation factor of dealing with the giant of growth? What was that like?
In MIT?
It was a little bit odd because my first day with him was actually not in macroeconomics. He was teaching what they then called it MIT Advanced economics theory.
And he had got a.
Bug in his head that what he should be doing is making urban economics more mathematical. So we started off with lectures on cities whose optimal shape was the same as a cigar, and he joked that that was a model of Palo Alto.
I still remember.
That, Ellen Blinder. Do we have too much math?
Now?
Do you detect a model at the Eccles building post pandemic or we making it up as we go?
I don't think so, not in that building.
Now you might level that criticism as parts of academia, though I think.
Even there that peaked or troth.
But we want to call it a little while back and economics is getting a bit more empirical again, which to me is a good thing. Not that we should Jensen economic theory. It's a question of how big a slice of the pie economic theory should take compared to empirical economics. So I think that's improving. And inside the FED you don't see a lot of this high falutin theory, let's call it. They have to be by the nature of their jobs, more down to earth.
Professor, you recently had a piece in the Wall Street Journal talking about President Electrump's economic plan. There are concerns about some of the inflationary aspects to this plan, whether it's tariffs or cutting taxes.
Can you give us your sense of kind of what we know now?
Yeah, well, we don't know anything now.
I think we can make the best guess about tariffs because the President elect has actually talked about numbers, and even though some of those numbers sound wild high, we've wild high compared to any sensible economic policy. We have come to learn from President elect Trump's first term that maybe we should believe them that just because he talks about sixty percent tariffs, and most economists would say that's completely crazy, we shouldn't dismiss the fact that he might do.
That, and he has.
I think it was a huge mistake that Congress may though you understand why he has unilateral authority over that, you would think this is weird. The Constitution gives taxing authority, and that's what tariffs are to the Congress. But the Congress has delegated that all the president has to do is say to some kind of national emergency, which, of course, to Trump, there's a national three national emergencies every day, so he could actually do that.
So you have some handle on the.
Numbers on the mass incarceration and deportation promises he's I don't think he'll ever get eleven million. What he'll get in the first year or so, I have no idea. Depends on how draconian and thorough they are. You can imagine pretty horrible scenarios there, but it's really guess work.
Alan Blinder, I look at Republican and of course your support of John Kerry and Al Gore and others put you on the left side of the debate. But I look at the nuances of the conservative debate on economics and I see someone acutely responsible, like Glenn Hubbard at Columbia University.
And then I see.
Others within the MILIU, including with President elect Trump, who are basically saying growth at any cost. What's the price of a growth at any cost strategy?
Well, I think there are several possible rights.
First of all, in pursuit of a will of the wisp, you may do silly or crazy things. That's the first thing you worry about, Like, for example, just to give you one example, we're on Bloomberg after all, massive repeal of banking regulation. Sure, let's go back to two thousand and seven or something like that.
So there's that kind of a possible cost.
And then the more obvious costs is the inflationary impact.
If you just go full.
Throttle on aggregate demand, for example, cutting taxes again on top extending the previous Trump tax cuts and then cutting taxes again, you can start running into an inflationary problem unless unless, and this is the other big deal, the FED steps in and stops it, and the President doesn't step in and stop the Fed.
Somehow, Professor, we had a pretty decent labor print here today, John, non non farm payroll. It seems like this labor economy, it just kind of continues month after month after month to kind of amaze a lot of investors here.
How do you view the US labor market?
Yeah, as you asked the question, I'm smiling. I think it's right, it's real.
It's beyond what any any of us, I think, would have imagined, beyond in a good sense, what any of us could have imagined a year and a half.
Ago or something like that. I look at this month number, this number that just came out as hitting par.
Again.
When I say hitting par, remember what the previous month was severely impacted by the strike and the storms, and so the jobs number was tiny. If you average it last month and this month now on the current BLS measurements, you're right on par. You're like at one hundred and thirty thousand a month. And this is not far from where we've been for a long time. And the unemployment rate's been close to four point one, four point two, four three point nine for a very long time.
I mean, this is fabulous.
This really is Elip Blinder. My good friend Adam Johnson holding court over at Fox Business. Marie Adam's watch and he sends it a note. Can you ask Professor Blinder if there's going to be a fifteenth edition of your textbook? Where are we on, Bauma Blinder solo?
I mean, are we going to get a new edition?
I can't answer that. We're on the fourteenth now and there won't be a fifteenth edition. It's time to retire it. For your information, Though you didn't ask this, it's implicit in the question. The first edition was published wait for it in nineteen seventy nine.
It's been a long run. Talk about things you weren't expected.
If you had asked me in nineteen seventy nine, how long do you think this textbook will last? I don't know what I want to say, but it wouldn't have been the fourteenth editions.
One final question to the former vice chairman again, you've been associated with Democratic Party politics. How does the Democratic Party get back to the center, the center of Scoop Jackson, the center of HHH?
How do we get back there?
You know, I think a lot of this is perception and some of it is policy, and of course we're not going to be able to do much policy while we're in the minority. The perception and the policy are about caring about and doing something for let's just call it middle to lower middle class working people. It's ironic to me that the Democrats against the Republicans go back generations.
There's never been a question of which was the party that cared more about ordinary working people, never until now, and now there is, and the Republicans, in particular Donald Trump, have captured a lot of that support and vote.
I think that.
Those people are going to see what the second Trump administration collection of billionaires actually does with the policy leavers and not be too happy, certainly not believe that it was for them.
Alan Blinder, thank you so much, the former vice chairman of the Feederserve System of course definitive at Princeton University.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty.
The tour de force for Bloomberg News.
The last two or three day Steve Carroll still with the Stephen Carroll of course, leading all of our radio coverage out of London on YouTube as well. Thrilled as Stephen Carroll could brief us on this weekend. Stephen Carroll, the President mccrawl will give a speech a huge victory lap within the absolute catastrophe of government and politics in France, and then the Archbishop of Paris will knock on the door of Notre Dame. It will be emotional, won't it.
It will be emotional. It will be significant, not just for the fifty heads of state and government who are going to be attended, including Donald Trump, as you're going to mention, but also for the city of Paris. This is a part of the skyline that's been missing since twenty nineteen. Everyone remembers where they were when they heard the news or saw the smoke, as so many did. Neighbors of the area had to have buildings closed because
of fears of asbestos spreading. Apart that, you know, all around this extremely beautiful area of central Paris, we've all gotten used to looking at the hoardings around the cathedral for the past five years. So you're talking about a moment where that area of the center of Paris is being transformed, renewed. I don't know if you've seen the pictures of inside the cathedral, but it is really spectacular
what they've done. Our colleagues and City Lab have written about it in their great pictures on the livergrob site as well.
So Stephen, where are we in the restoration of the cathedral? Is it complete or are we still work in progress? Because some of the pictures I've seen are really extraordinary. I never think they'd be able to get to this point in such a short period of time.
I mean, I think the thing that struck me about it is how much it doesn't look like it did before, because essentially during the restoration works, they've been able to take down so many of the elements and clean them. I mean eight thousand pipes in the organ taken down, cleaned, restored and put back in place. And I mean, you know, Paris, like cities all around the world, have air pollution issues, and this has colored the stone. It's colored the tiles.
You know, you remember the long queues of people that go in and out of the cathedral every day. You know, it's bright, it shines in parts. That's what people will be striking when we see the images.
Men's side Steevin Carroll.
Not to be funny, what does mister mccron do Monday morning. I mean, after the emotion and drama of this weekend, what does mister mccron wake up to Monday.
Well, actually, the question we're asking now is whether or not mister mccron will have a right hand man, will have a prime by Monday as well, because that's still what we're waiting for after this week's no confidence vote. He said in his address to the nation last night that he would name a new prime minister in the coming days. He's holding a range of meetings with political parties at the Elise Palace today, so I mean he may wake up to say that there's a plan. Things
are back on track. We can be sure this is going to be a spectacular weekend where the eyes of the world will be on Paris. He'll be in his element doing the glad handing of international leaders that we know he enjoys and does well. So the question will be whether the domestic political situation will look any brighter on Monday morning, once they've gotten over this weekend of ceremony.
Stephen Carroll, folks, has people called me up last They said you're not selling Stephen good enough. Folks across continental ere solid they start Bloomberg Daybreak with the acclaimed Stephen Carroll in London, and they generate a podcast literally.
Within thirty minutes.
Yep, the numbers, Paul, It's mccrawl.
Listens to it. It's unbelievable.
Stephen Carrollton, This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Apple car Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app.
You can also watch us live.
Every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
Lisa Mateo Hour. It is our newspaper segment, hugely acclaimed. Coast to coast, Lisa, what do you.
Have in the front?
I have your favorite person in the world, Kim Kardashian. Okay, she wants to you know how her Skims line did very well well. Now she wants to reinvent skiware. Yes on the ski slope. She's teaming up with north Face to do it. A collaboration between Skims and north Face. Yeah. Fourteen piece collection, Okay, comes out this winter. You have beanies, you have leggings, fleece, jackets, out of wear, all in the shapes of Beiji and brown, which is kind of weird.
Because you never see that on ski. You see like the.
Bright colors, bray colors.
She's doing the Beijing brown. But she actually is a big ski aficionado. She started when she was two years old. She's been skiing so when she grew up, she said, she used the clothes and fit right. So she used to syncham and do all these things, pick up the hem and shade them. So now she says she has created her own mind. So it's skims and north face. I have to check it out. I'm going on a ski trip by Christmas.
Where are you going?
I'm not you, Sweeney. I go to camel Back.
Okay, I learned how to ski and camel Back is really.
Yes. So I haven't checked the price of these, but they're coming out. So Kim Kardashian expanding her her little Hilemon's warm kind warm. Then you can wear in the snow exactly, go very good.
I'll check that out.
Okay, so we have we have that right, we have the ski wear. But now we go to the men's side. Okay, do you any of you have a rich guy jacket?
Matt Miller doesn't, doesn't of leather.
Everyone is different, and I just say when I walk up to Matt Miller, what animal is that?
Is it horse? Is it cow? Is it like kangaroo? He's got these and they're not cheap. Each one of.
These are very expensive, but he seems to think they're the greatest things, so he.
May be interested in this. Okay, so they're calling it, yes, the risky jacket, But this one's a little different than the Matt Miller leather ones. Okay, it's tailored, it's button up designs that had that little stand up collar. Sophisticated, but you know, a little bit quite formal. It's made from cashmere. Some are custom versions by Ermez patch pockets. They also have yes, four figure price tags. So this may be out of Miller's league.
No, no, that's right in his relouse.
Goodness the previous story.
Yes, I just got a photograph here, miss kardash you did in the ship wearing that going down Prema cordishat veil, slow veil.
She's a candle back.
Probably I can't, yeah, but apparently it keeps you warm. I don't know. I would have to test it out for myself. But jacket, I know from Kardashians to Richmond Jackets, Okay, so now we go to We've been hearing a lot of the news right about the NYPD offering rewards. You've heard this lately with the suspect who was suspected of killing United Healthcare boss Brian Thompson. So where do they get the money? And The New York Times actually has
this good look into it. It's actually not the NYPD, but it's from this donor funded New York City Police Foundation and they've been doing these rewards since nineteen eighty three. They covered more than three million dollars in rewards over those over that time. And you know you've heard it crime stoppers, right, you always hear that out and about they have the tip line. They offer about thirty five hundred dollars for information that leads to an en diamond
for a violent climb. But they upped the anti from mister Thompson. They upped it to ten thousand dollars. So that's what they have. But it was an interesting look at where the money comes from, how long it's been in effect, and how the money gets you know, the antie gets up as a as a crime.
For some people.
I mean, that'd be a big incentive to come forward, make a phone call and say hey, I know this guy, I've seen this guy or whatever.
I will say it because now they do have, you know, a face of the suspect. So you have a face picture out there.
You know this.
This news story just highlighted how many cameras around the city. You're just I think your foot. You have to assume you're being photographed at all times.
We soon London's like that and we're not, and maybe we're wrong.
Yeah, yeah, so we've seen lots of photographs.
I do. This is a big take story. I have to ask David Gerr about this when he's a big take guy. The quest to turn a human waste into a cancer treatment, Okay, this is actually happening. It's a pharmaceutical manufacturing center in southeast France. It's called Matt Pharma, and every few months they get this huge delivery of human Can I say poop?
I don't know.
We say clue in the Bloomberg business story, Okay, that might be the wo okay, the Bloomberg way of proof.
But it's really precious because the raw ingredient is for this medical and treatment to improve the gut health. And what this company is a pioneer in is using that therapy to treat cancer. So all these donations are coming in and they're being used for medical treatment to treat cancer. But they take the donations really seriously. I mean it's more than when you're giving blood. You have to go through this entire process in order to be a donor.
Donor conditions are more stringent than they are for giving blood exactly.
Yeah, medical examinations, blood drawed, nasal swap, all that you have to go through in order to be a donor. But it's going to a good cause.
So YouTube, are you going to costco this week?
Am I going to even?
Is it?
Kind of because everybody is in that whole section where all the flee stuff is.
Well, here's the question. Do you have your Christmas tree yet? I?
Do you do today?
You're going today? So we're going this week.
Contributions.
I think this is a reasonable time to get your Christmas.
So you you do the real tree? Yes, and you do the real tree.
I mean she sad like a week ago and she has her.
Kids carrier tree.
Yeah.
I hate delivery of course, walking across London.
Yep, I know, you know, going through the tube.
I do the fake tree zero.
Are you kidding me? That's on America.
Thank you, you have a little it's already, it's already a.
Little just puts a couple of bulbs on there and she's good.
Listen to a Tale of the Fake Tree. Thank you for the newspapers.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten a m Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal