Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings from seven to ten am
Eastern from our global headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify, or anywhere else you listen, and always I'm Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. Here's the right guy to talk about the partial derivatives of the algebraic function, boy known as American GDP. He majors in physics for mister Peck and the crew at Morgan Stanley Portfolio Solutions Group. CEE IO Jim Carren joins us. Right now, which of the alphabet
soup of the function matters? The consumption, investment, government, or NX.
Thank you, Tom. Well, Look, I think all of it matters, but right now I think consumption probably matters the most sev seventy percent of GDP. It's something that what we're looking at today is really about the strength of the consumer. The jobs data, all of that stuff is going to
matter quite a bit. That's been probably the most surprising element of this period of time is that we've been able to bring in point the inflation rates down, but the jobs data is actually said relatively strong, which is kept surprising the strong GDP numbers.
Does the yield space Paul's on the two year five percent yield, does the yield space describe Ellen Zenner's economics? You know, I think it does.
It's just really a question of, like, if we have the two year yield flirting with five percent, that makes sense in an environment where we believe the Fed may only cut possibly one time this year, and that's really indicative of the strength. And you know, we're going to see what the first quarter GDP numbers come out to
look like in the next four minutes or so. But what's also very important about that, though, is really tomorrow's PCEE number, the inflation number, So good growth like two and a half percent growth potentially, you know, as potential growth or two point seven percent is what's expected on the Bloomberg surveys for for PCE and you know, for GDP it's two point five percent. If that growth number is good, that's fine as long as inflation is low.
But if inflation turns out to be high with strong growth, then the FED has a problem. The FED has no problem with strong growth and low inflation, full employment, strong growth, you know, stable prices, that's what the FED wants.
So what are the good folks in Morgan Stanley, the investment management doing in terms of getting positioned here or for FED that I guess we now the market's now come to the conclusion, as you mentioned, they're not going to be cutting as much here.
What do we do?
Yeah?
So so I think really, you know, the key element here is when we manage multi ascid portfolios across fixed income and equity, one of the things that we have to think about is how do we how do we use bonds to hedge equities. And one of the conclusions that we've come up with is that you may not want to be as long duration in periods of you know, potential turmoil like the correction that we're seeing in the markets today inequities as much as you had in the past.
And the reason is is that I think that you know, the bull market and bonds, in my view, has ended we're likely to go sideways and arrange and interest rates for a long period of time, in which case having extra long duration in your portfolios these days is probably not the most.
Awesome numbers on that. I mean, I'm sure many bond people short durations twenty years because they're all, yeah, now give me a year statistic. It's that of this blowney duration.
Okay, yeah, now a good point, and it's good clarity to add. So the aggregate index for the US is about six and a half years of duration, so that's generally what people think of as neutral duration. What I would say is that you might want to be somewhat underweight that and have maybe somewhere on the order of like five to five and a half years of duration, so just slightly lower than index duration, I think is a more optimal hedge against the broad returns in your
fixed income inequity portfolios. Now that may be financial market heresy to say go underweight duration and it reduces risk because typically people think adding bonds and adding duration is what reduces risk, and that's historically been true, but that's been true in a bond bull market.
And we're ninety seconds away from a hugely anticipated GDP number. Let's review this. The quarter ends twelve thirty one, and they take a month to get it out. So now the quarter ends three thirty one, March thirty first, and get out your calendar. In four or five, six weeks along, we get the first look at GDP and I thought Veronica Clark was was good. Victoria Clark, it's city group of saying recently, the first look, the second look, the third look have been pretty smooth. You know, it hasn't
been adjustment. So I think there's even more weight here. The Atlanta GDP number Paul two point seven percent, the Bloomberg survey two point five percent. Yep.
So I mean this economy, the growth is slowed, but this growth is still there. Inflation is coming down. Yes, it's still sticky. But you put all that together well, and as Jim was just mentioning, it kind of suggests this FED doesn't have to and you know, get over.
At skis toime. I'm glad we got the GDP price index. One point six percent was a prior and it explodes up to a three percent number. Here we're going to see in fifteen seconds there's also course PCEE price But then don't confuse that with the inflation data that we see tomorrow. Gets a little confusing. Jim Carron will explain that if he stays around here, it's Bloomberg's surveillance. Here is the data coming out. We get trade data first. It's pretty much a little bit larger deficit. But I'm
not going to go we're wholesale inventories. I don't understand. Claims is a terrible number? Are you kidding me? Two hundred and seven thousand, and now we get the GDP statistics and this will be market moving two point five percent the survey. It comes in diminished Jim Carron one point six percent, personal consumption lighter, GDP price index three percent is three point one percent, and core PCEE price index,
I guess I'm gonna say explodes. Maybe that's too large, three point four up to a three point seven percent statistic, and the VIX launches here the two year yield of four point ninety two percent. I think there's enough wow here just in the headline numbers, where there's almost confusion in the market. I think there is collosally in the market.
I'm seeing we're seeing the S and P futures weaken a little bit here, down about one percent on the S and P and just looking at the short term of the yield curve to your treasures up one basis point four point nine to four percent. But again the GDP annualized the quarter on quarter, the kind of the headline number, one point six percent growth there in the first quarter consensus was two point five percent, as Thomas Minchek, and I'll also highlight prior period was three point four percent.
So if you're looking for.
A deceleration in the economy now, this data certainly kind of bears it.
Chris Antsy driving our coverage for Top Live and he says, simply one point six percent growth rate is lower than any of the fifty nine estimates of the Bloomberg Service, of course except Jim Caron, he nailed it. But what we've got is a deterroring market nasiaka Facebook. One point three percent is well, I'm watching the two year yield four point nine four. Yes, it's gone green. We got
a higher yield. They are four point ninety five percent. Yeah, really starting to move like there was almost a thirty second to lay there when the data came out, Paul.
I mean he was just trying to grasp it here, but again is Bloomberg Live. We're just finding the reporting Bloomberg Live. You know, really talking about a significant underperformance there in the US economy finally starting to slow and you think about.
The long and variable lags of the higher rates.
Maybe we were seeing it fascinating. We'll get to Jim Karron here in a moment. Our economic indicators each and every day, seven days a week, but particularly important days like this brought to you by Commonwealth, supporting more than two thousand independent financial advisors with the solutions they need to grow a thriving business. Commonwealth Go where you grow. Visit Commonwealth dot com to learn more. Jim Carren, the numbers I think had enough shock factor. And you know
I've been doing this a few years. The markets didn't move for thirty seconds, stunned.
Well, you know this is a big miss. And like you said, you know many economists nobody really had this number. I mean, this is Look. One of the big positives to the first quarter was that there was a narrative that we were just growing very, very strong, and this
is unwinding a lot of that narrative. So now this is actually a very friendly number for the FED because what the Fed has been saying is that we're going to get this economic cooling and we don't have to worry about potentially these inflation numbers that have been coming out hotter than you know, hotter than expected, that it's all going to correct itself. This is a major step in the right direction.
It starts to.
Put June back on the table. Potentially, it puts June back on the table. Now now we're not seeing that right now in terms of the price action of treasuries. Now, of course, everything's going to depend on is there a vision to this. Was there some type of an anomaly. We've got to go through the numbers, we have to go through the math of this whole thing. But effectively, a slow like this is going to bring down some of the inflation angst that's been in the markets.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's really interesting.
I'm looking at the WRP function to see how that's going to start reflecting any changes in the market's expectations for the FED.
And you're right, it seemed like the.
Market we started the year with six cuts. Potentially we got down to boy two or even fewer than two, just as recently as yesterday, and maybe this will cause the FED to maybe think about being a little more dubbish.
And there's one other thing that I really want to bring these I think it's very, very important, is that earnings expectations are highly linked to GDP growth. So I know we're talking about the bond market a lot, let's talk about the equity market just for a second here. If earnings growth is slower in the first quarter, that's going to change a lot of people's full year earnings estimates for twenty twenty four and potentially even going forward.
So the equity markets are actually responding more strongly on this because it's basically making many analysts take down some of their robust earnings expectation.
We've got eight ways to go here, but let me go to what I learned in school. You know the textbooks. Yeah, you have physics envy, which is why Karen's here. And the answer is, you got to hang your hat on one thing, and to me, it's a ten year inflation adjust yield and forget about the math. And let's not impress people with a log And I'll semi log basis, I'm getting out to a real stress point at two point twenty six percent.
Yeah, the real yields are certainly moving higher and into the point where this has historically demarked a bit of a slowing of economic activity. But none of this is happening in synchronicity to the extent that one of the things that we're also seeing is the price is paid components and the pricing components of the internals of the GDP number are actually causing the bond market a little bit of angst here. So on one hand, we have a weak headline print. On the other hand, we have
some inflation and pricing pressures. So in theory, inflation is a lagging indicator, so inflation should fall on these things. But unless there's something that's just going, well.
What's Ellen's saying? Stop? I mean, you got a team of fourteen people. Karen's there with two interns. Well they're from Voden, but Ellen Xander's got like twenty five people. What do they say about the disinflation vector in Morgan Stanley?
Yeah, so look, I mean, it's, as Ellen likes to put it, it's going to be a slow, bumpy path lower. So you know inflation is likely to come down. It's just a question of does it come down in a linear fashion where people are comfortable with the pace but the trajectory. Nobody's really disagreeing with the direction of inflation.
Everybody is.
Most people agree that it's coming down. It's just a question of is it coming down fast enough for the FED to start their rate cutting cycle? And that's the debate. So what Ellen pushed out in terms of her FED forecast was from June to July that the first rate cut would start to come in July. And I don't think that this number might not change that in many ways.
Okay, is there an inertial force here right now? Are we getting at where there's enough yields? We're on a truly on a physics basis. I make jokes about it, but seriously, are we getting a weight towards an inertial force of higher yields? Yeah?
So, I think as you were saying earlier, you know, many people came into this year overweight fixed income, long duration, and this has been correcting.
Now.
The positives around this is that at this backup and yield, if you're looking at a multi ASSEID portfolio, you can start to think about owning US treasuries, You can think about owning bonds, high quality bonds now as a reasonable hedge against your equity, and you can actually potentially get some return from these levels.
Sweet's gonna get us five percent to your you'd you a cup of coffee out on YouTube live chat James with a real smart insight stagflation. Jamie Diamond nails it, yep. I mean that's really what we're talking about. I mean, you know you mentioned David Weston. He's going to be with Professor Summers and Larry's going to pick it up and go here we are. But I mean that's what the research paper's paul to look like. Jim Careen, one
more question. We're gonna go to doctor Wong and we're gonna bring Jim Karen back after doctor Wong.
Hey, Jim, I'm looking at the two year just today up six basis points, as Tom said, for four point nine to nine percent, and you've mentioned fixing them as a hedge for equities that did not work in twenty twenty two, that sixty to forty portfolio did not work for anybody. Is that still something you guys think about? Is that still something we should keep in our toolbox.
Yeah, you know.
I mean we have to think about how we use bonds to hedge. And in the in the idea was that you could passively buy fixed income and it would just represent a great hedge. And this is one of the reasons why I think you should hold less fixed income exposure in terms of duration to hedge against your hedge against your equity portfolio. So to have slightly less like you know, I was saying six and a half years of duration is the is the index average, that's
you know, that's what's considered neutral. I'm saying you should have maybe five or five and a half years of duration. So I do think we need to think differently about this. We have to remember that for forty years from nineteen eighty one to twenty twenty one, bonds are in a bull market. Today I think they're largely going to move sideways. So you're expected returns from the coupon.
How to fix it up?
Him, let's finish up with you so you can go back and publish what part of the yield curve will be most affected by sub two percent GDP, so.
You know, look in theory, what it should be is the ten year yield. So in theory, the curve should start to flatten down because if you have a weaker growth economy and it shows that you're going into a slow period and a slow patch, longer duration actually will be a reasonable hedge in that particular environment. So the front end right now, and I think the bond market is looking at one thing, that's the consumer side, that's
the price aside. The equity market is looking at the whole picture, and it's looking at that one point six versus the two point five, and I think that is the I think that's the mismatch right now in the market. So right now we have bonds on returns in equity returns highly correlated. That's dangerous. High correlation is dangerous. So there's no place to hide, right So if you bought bonds to hedge this number, you lost at least right
now at this point. But like Anna was saying, I do think that some of this bond sell off will start to get reversed once it gets digest. Yes, it's you know, imports are very important component.
Well, all, I got to make some news here today. I mean, there's no quret. We got to make some News Ian Lingoenn, and we're sorry, we can't get Ian Lingen in from BEMO. He's got to go into a Bank of Montreal at conference call. But Ian Lingen has said, at some point the ten year goes price up, yield down. Is this the moment where we finally get a catalyst for a lower ten year yield that, just as one example, brings mortgage relief across America.
So in my opinion, the answer is yes. I do think that you know, four to seventy five and the ten year yield. I know we're kind of close to that right now. So let's call us let's say that we're let's say that we're just about there. I think that's a reasonable line in the sand to draw, and it's it's a place where I would start to take some bond risk.
Paul rounded up four digits. I know you want to jump in and rounded up Paul four digits five percent in a two year yield.
Exactly right, Hey, Jim, as you go back to your offices at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, you sit down with your pms this morning, are you guys going to change anything in your portfolios? Change your outBut change your allocations. So about it maybe a world that maybe stagflation is something we have to think about it.
Well, I don't know. I mean, I think it's a little early to call for stackflation. But you know, so we've moved more towards a neutral posture at this point. So we've taken our equity from overweight to underweight end of the first quarter. But I think in bonds we are going to start to take our duration up a little bit higher because these yields are appetizing, so that that's likely the next move for us.
Go ahead, Paul. Now this is one more question to Karen Jerseys having a tantrum. It's take your daughter to work? Did you bring any kids in? Now?
My kids?
I got afterthought today? I go you want to come into work with dad? She's looking at I mean, like, you know, is it that? Or go to Eli's on Madison Avenue and chat on twenty five dollars at cheeseburgers? Exactly? You know? I mean, what you know what you're gonna do? Elayne's waiting, Paul, get a question real quick.
What do you think this the Fed's gonna do? Looking at this data today?
So I still think it's Powell's remarks from from from a week ago still hold. I think he's still waiting to see more confidence. We still have to see those inflation numbers come out softer consistently.
Yep. Yeah, this has been great. I really look forward to to talk about triangulation. I'm gonna blame Steve Roach for this. Maybe there's somebody else. They fight like cats and dogs at Morgan Stanley. They've got my greatest respect. The next meeting of Karen Zettner and Mike Wilson, that's gonna be it.
It's gonna be We should have a remote broadcast.
We should we should do a live broadcast. It's like the NFL draft. We'll have to see Jim. Karen, thank you so much, particularly for coming in today. Greatly appreciate that perfect person, perfect time. Constant Hunter joins us, working with Julia cornetto at micropolicy perspectives. Constant, I want to go to the eye. I want to go to the
business spirit. Given sub two percent GDP with an inflation impulse, I have a ten year real yield back to two thousand and nine levels where it pretty much sustain two thousand and four to the crisis, and then two thousand and nine. Does the higher inflation adjusted yield does that begin to impinge now on American business?
Well, that is the question Tom, and I think it has been impinging on American business right. When we look at financial conditions for those who can access the capital markets, financial conditions look fairly accommodated.
Right.
We have higher equity markets, people are going to the bond market and issuing debt. When you look at financial conditions for households. When you look at financial conditions for small and medium sized businesses, they are tighter. However, with that said, we are still seeing record new business formations. So there is something happening under the hood of this economy that is different than previous cycles. And as we know, history rhymes, it doesn't repeat very good constant.
Obviously, the market was looking for if you look at consensus, was looking for a slow down in GDP in this quarter, but not this slow Does that change your thoughts about I don't know what the Fed will do, what investors should do, what you guys should do their macro policy perspectives.
Yeah, Well, as you can imagine, our Bloomberg Chat has been very active this morning with amongst ourselves and with our clients. Right. So the view, of course is this makes it a more difficult calculus for the FED, and
certainly that higher inflation number gives a clause. I will say, though, if you think about so there's two things, then they're necessarily congruent things because we're at a time when we're in an inflection point, and inflection points data gets very funky, right, and we've been pointing that out with some of the contradictions that we see within the labor market data, both the official data and some of the webscraping that we're
doing with regard to company intentions to hire and fire right. And so what we have here is we have stronger services consumption, which quite honestly, I think economists have been waiting for that outside services consumption for several quarters, and goods consumption just persisted in being strong. Finally, we have the decline in goods consumption. That means that in all likelihood, this low to negative pricing we're seeing in goods will continue. That will give some relief to overall CPI.
I'm sorry, I want to talk Constance about the bigger picture. The mail and Paul gets all the you know, Lisa gets the love notes constant I get hate mail, and the hate mail I get is simple. You guys are nuts. Most of us feel like it's a recession and we're getting crushed by inflation. If we have a run rate sub two percent GDP and the fancy people are living large, what portion of America now is in recession with an elevated inflation, right, it's got to be what half the country?
Well, that's an excellent question, and I have to delve into the numbers to give an exact give an exact figure. But you bring up a very good point. And as you know, every time we get the CPI numbers, I do a table that shows the annualized pace of individual
components since February twenty twenty. And while yes, the month of a month pace seems to be doing better, and the year of a year piece pace is doing better than the height, what people are anchoring to with is that cumulative increase they have to pay, and they can't get out of paying things like, for example, like vehicle insurance. It's not easy to substitute homeowners insurance, not easy repstute
and these really do take a bite. Now, with that said, on vehicle insurance it looks like that was a one off. Three state regulators California, New York, and New Jersey allowed insurers to increase the vehicle insurance price, so that looks like it was.
A one up.
But still the mood is that that it's hard to control where price increases are coming from, and they're continue to be rolling surprises.
Bluebrig surveillance. We always go to anecdotal evidence joining us now Paul Sweeney with a hate mail from New Jersey. How bad is the insurance story?
It's it is.
I mean, it's it's crazy here, but that's just you know, one of the many costs of living in.
These are fixed costs. These are not like variable costs. I mean, it's like Hamburg very quickly, or a data check. Markets deteriorate SPX and negative one point three percent NASDAC negative one point seven percent. VIX is actually pretty quiescent, still under seventeen sixteen point eight six and that ten year real yield sum it all up up six massive basis points two point two nine percent. That takes us back to two thousand and nine and even back to two thousand and.
Six, and Tom red headline across the Bloomberg Terminal traders push back timing a first rate FED rate cut to December. Constance, do you even maybe take it a little bit further and think about is this a FED even contemplating a rate hike?
Is that something is possible.
I don't think we're ready for a rate hike because one, you know, cocomminant with this weaker growth is going to be weaker jobs data. So we push back the first rate cut to September. But I really think there's a case for we get up to five percent on the ten year before this is all over.
Interesting, All right, Constant, thank you so much for joining us Constants on our senior advisor macro policy perspective.
John Stolfus of OpCo. John, how do I stay in markets on days like this?
Well, thanks for having me on the on the show. I've gotta say this. I think the question, you know that traders ask right away is that should I go or should I stay? You know, like the old hit song. And there's a pants passing fancy potential here, capricious nature
of the fast reaction. But for investors who are investing for it anywhere from two, three, five, seven years forward, you know, out it's a quick moment to pause and ponder check out the babies that are getting chucked out with the bath water, whether it's it's in technology, industrials,
consumer discretionary, and a host of other cyclical stocks. In particular, we'd have to think is worth checking the opportunity that's available because the trend we believe is our friend, and the trend is led by the FED, which is acted incredibly responsible this FED fund hike cycle reflecting what we call the Ben Bernanke a legacy.
John comes on the market's negative six hundred and he lifts it down a negative five eighty. He's a force.
Hey John, John, what do you think you know, some of the reporting coming out and some of the words coming off of Wall Street this morning is maybe calling into question whether the FED will cut at all in twenty four. How do you think the Fed's going to look at some of this data and then of course the important PC data tomorrow.
I think we'll have to see what happens with that data tomorrow. I think when Mike McKee was talking, he really hit some some important spots to consider there. But what I would say is there is effectively, you know, we came into this year when a lot of people were expecting. I think it went from it was it was five to seven up to eleven. People thought the
economy was falling apart. Apparently we looked at it. We thought the FED was going to cut likely too, which rubbed up against the FEDS three sort of intimated costs that they were talking about early on.
And I think there's.
Still they still had at who knows what where we're headed in terms of the near term commentary, But we've got to say we think the economy, you know, as was mentioned earlier, the consumer is good business, remarkably resilient. You know, we're still early in the earning season, but some some things that.
Goes okay, to make the observation that money market funds are going to become more comfortable here, sweety's on the five point zero two percent two your yield, that's going to be comfortable here, and you're going to tell me you how it. Share buybacks are going to click in our shared buybacks to the rescue of the market.
I don't think it's just shared buybacks, I would I would think it really has to do with with the fact that earnings and revenue, particularly earnings growth has been significantly resilient, and revenue growth hasn't really you know, on an idiosyncratic basis, that can surely disappoint, but overall it shows a resilience that is main tamed, which likely tells us corporations are better and naturally so after fifteen years of SESSI crises at navigating tougher environments and with with AI,
just where AI is today, not where it's going to be in the future. This is this is like what's going on I.
E Io Paul Stulfus's crater in the market negative six twenty on the doubts.
Fault, John, I know you guys took your year in price target up to I guess fifty five hundred on the S and P. What's kind of the driver? Is that an earnings driven market? Is that a FED driven market?
How do you what are the drivers?
Combination of the two. It's a combination of the FED. It's earnings driven. It has to do with innovation, and it's as we saw the rally from the late October of last year broadening to the other sectors, expectations that that innovation will feed into other sacs. There is other than technology and consumer discretionary and industrials, and within that that kind of of a feature. The nice thing is
you have several things playing. It's not it's a fundamentally better story towards a normalization where bond issuers pay for the privilege of borrowing money, bond buyers get something in return. It hurts the It hurts the fast fast crowd, you know, because they like to be highly leveraged, and they will protest. The FEDS are luted to cut rates drastically, and I think Powell does not want to. He certainly doesn't want to be Arthur Burns that he doesn't want to have
to become Paul Valker again. You know, I've been doing this. I came in and during the period where Vulker was beginning his second term, and so I've lived with the Fed through fifteen years of green span, and green span was almost a science. He was listing with inflation that was sticky.
We're almost a negative seven hundred doubt. Go away, sulface with us some op goo. We really look forward to his research report from Oppenheimer and Company. He has been in this market. He has enjoyed a multi year bull market. You're taking to look at the front pages and because children are in the building, they're appropriate stories today. Lisa, what are you got all right?
Yes, we're keeping a PG for the kids today. Okay, So we've heard a lot about a lot of workers being afraid that AI is going to take over their jobs. That's that's a big thing. But we had one IT company who's telling the Financial Times that technology could do away with call centers. You have a lot of the
call centers. This is the head of Tata Consultancy Services said AI is rest and yeah, they definitely know, especially over in India, quote minimal needs need for call centers as soon as this year, as soon as a year. And so it's going to show that it's going to have a bad cut across Asia.
But you know how they show you the chat chat and there's no person on the other end. It's just a computer algorithm. It doesn't work. That's my sophisticated analysis that frusctrating.
You're sitting there like representative, like I just want to talk.
To a person.
Why is this going to work?
Well, they're saying that what's going to happen is that the chatbots are going to be able to analyze the customer's transaction history and do much of the work that are done by those call center. So they're saying they're not going.
To run it. I need I need some new tang zero right now. I love sending a message into our control room telling Michael the lazy puke sleeping right now because it's take your children to work week, Go get me a coffee in a ten zero zero. It's about time we put these kids to work. What that's next?
So we're talking about kids, we're talking about girls.
I love this.
It's a girl power story. So all right here we go. Okay, the Queen's Park Ladies. It's an under twelve soccer team in England. They are undefeated. They're playing in a boys soccer league. Okay, so they're kicking butt. They're hoping to inspire younger girls to get into the sport. They've won all twenty two matches and at first the boys were laughing, you know when they saw these girls come out. And who's got the laws behind us?
Mohammed el Arian. I have told you we're not having a beverage in London. Me and John Pharaoh and doctor el Arian and we're you know, the two of us. We're trying to get him to pick up the tab and we're saying, doctor, he did pretty well in the investment business, folks, And we said, Mohammad, would you just buy QPR And he's he's trying, he's trying to decide should he buy QPR, which is in the Champions League, or should he go big yeah, like to leave you know,
by Arsenal or whatever. But the QPR ladies are getting it done.
They are yeah, under twelve very much.
Yeah, good morning, yeah.
Yeah.
And the reason they did is because when they first start years ago, there weren't there wasn't a girl's league, so they didn't have the competition. So that's why they joined the boys. They didn't have a girls It was about six years ago when the clubs started. Yeah, and they didn't have a girl's lea back then.
So well, girls sports here, I mean, you know your daughter is huge.
Yeah, girl sports here are really big. I know when I was younger, I was an athlete. I played with the boys on the basketball team.
Did you they didn't have middle school the star stuff stuff?
How many D one schools are going to recruit your daughter?
She was like, you D two, D three, Okay, d one, It is tough. D one is tough, but it's and it's a big workload with the school and the D one's got.
She had a ball the other night which landed in stet Nives.
She did another home where she did.
Okay, I'm telling you, girl power.
Love it.
Girl power.
So, since we're talking about kids, and new report says US birth rates actually fell last year to the lowest level in more.
Than forty years.
So this is from the US National Center of hell Statistics. It fell two three point five nine million, not just the US birth rates and other countries worldwide. And we all know why. The experts are saying, you know, paid family skywriting and healthcare, childcare costs, it's all the same. But peek were shifted to women in their thirties and forties. Those rates declined in twenty twenty three from the year earlier.
So my four offspring, that's an you.
Are a rare case.
Okay, it's not having four children anywhere.
I think it's the one thing, the one thing I learned in the pandemic, other than listening to the medical pros. Thank you all the people that saved us at MODERNA and Pfizer is as well. The number one thing I learned is we lived all the evidence that our childcare system is broken. We all lived it. Everyone.
Yeah, the childcare is Cristy.
I mean Matt Miller during this time came back from Germany where they have paid childcare and it's just and his wife.
Has just shocked that that we don't have that here in the US. She said, wait, this is the United States.
You guys don't have paid healthcare so you can go to work and do all that kind of stuff.
And then during the pandemic, of course it became that much more.
Yeah, are you dunners or one more?
No, this one's for you now. I know you like your doc Martin's Tom, but this is a new thing you may have to switch to.
Okay.
It is a snowfer or a sneffer.
I saw this. Okay.
It is a cross between a sneaker and a loafer. All right, So New Balance is coming out with it. It's in August. It's kind of it looks like it has a great out mesh, but it has no laces. So they're hoping that this is different from you know, the slip on shoes, different from that. This is more high end, so they're hoping, Yeah, I'm going to go to the executive.
Here's here's where I got really disappointed. One of my all time favorite people, why look up to David west.
Always stressed to the nines.
He is now with his wonderfully tailored suits coming in.
I mean he's a player, he is.
He is wearing these kind of sneak things with wear suits. And if David Weston can go casual, Michael McKee, the world's coming to it.
Michael McKee again, another one.
I'm rebelling. I'm just not going, you know, in the hallway at the front door, where missus Keane says, shut up and throw this out. She has my last pair of decent Bowers skates like they're not They're just below like what the NHL people wear. And I think they're going, I'm not putting those on again. I don't think so. But you can get me in old fart sneakers without laces. I apoloze this. Yeah, you know, I may have to hire somebody. Michael Rainier, do you want to come over
and tie my shoelaces? It be It'll be great.
You have to tie the laces, just slip them on.
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