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PCE Reaction and US Eco Outlook

Jun 25, 202642 min
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Episode description

The latest in finance, economics and investment.
Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene & Paul SweeneyThursday, June 25, 2026
Featuring:

1) Rob Sockin, Chief US Economist at PGIM Credit, Andrew Szczurowski, Senior Fixed Income Portfolio Manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, and Marija Veitmane, Managing Director, react to PCE.
2) Sebastien Page, Head: Global Multi-Asset and Chair of the Asset Allocation Steering Committee at T. Rowe Price, talks about his inflation and economic outlook.
3) Suki Cooper, Global Head: Commodities Research at Standard Chartered Bank, joins to talk gold, metals, and her commodities outlook.
4) Lee Roberts, Chancellor at UNC-Chapel Hill, joins for an extended discussion on higher education, funding, and recruiting students in the age of AI.Eric Mollo

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple CarPlay or Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

Your Quick Brief with Rob sick and p Gum here. I just as a general statement, what are you going to look at within the wall of data here in four minutes? What matters to you? Well?

Speaker 3

I think the key is on the activity side. Things are holding up well, so I think we're gonna get jobless claims.

Speaker 2

Those will look good.

Speaker 3

I think on the spending side, you're seeing the consumer show some signs of strain but holding in pretty well. So it really comes down to the inflation numbers. We're looking for zero point three to five percent month over month core PC, three point four percent year every year. Looking at the details will be important. When's driving that, But that's staring stories as.

Speaker 2

Pad keeps saying, are we peaking inflation?

Speaker 3

I think at the end of the year we're closer to three percent on core PC, so you're going to get some gradual disinflation in the back half but you know, to me, the risks are heavily skewed to the upside on inflation. All the leading indicators I look at for consumer inflation, things like the producer price index, surveys of supply chain strains, survey of prices, all those things still look quite firm. So I don't have a lot of confidence that we're going to get that gradual disinflation in

the back half. And if you look at the FED, they had a much higher forecast for core PC by the end of the year. I think that's quite possible with some of the leading indicators that we're seeing.

Speaker 4

Has to FED ever, address the issue of what we've seen in the last couple of years of deglobalization on shoring, friends shoring. All that trend suggests just higher overall underlying inflation going forward. Have they addressed that visa either two percent kind of target.

Speaker 3

Well, I think this gets to an important issue, which is they've been a lot of supply shocks over the last several years. Some of this is due to some of these de globalization type trends. We can look at tariffs as kind of example of that, and you saw that reflected in the last FED meeting where they said supply shocks are keeping inflation away from target, and it's

not just energy. It's more broader than that, and I think that's why you're going to continue to see a hawkish FED, even with oil prices down where they are, because it's a much broader story than energy. We've missed inflation target for many years, and a lot of that's related to those deglobalization trends.

Speaker 2

What year over year CPI is optimal for equity markets?

Speaker 3

Well, that's a great question because your equity markets are balancing a lot of factors here. On the one hand, hotter inflation means the Fed's going to stay higher for longer. Things arena be hawkish on the back of it, though, you have this AI story, which we think is.

Speaker 2

Largely orthogonal to rates. Yeah. Yeah, So what's your statistic on that before we go to the reporting.

Speaker 3

Well, I think that you know, if we get softer inflation, that would be ideal for equity markets, because I think net net rates moving up is negative for for for rates. So I think if we start to see you know, a miss on PCE here something below point three, that would be quite favorable month over month. I think that's unlikely given some of the data that we've already had at.

Speaker 2

Services and goods. Do we return to a vector of goods disinflation.

Speaker 3

Well, that's what's in our forecast, But there too, I think there's a lot of risks for these deglobalization trends. Also, you know what was driving goods inflation over the last year was tariffs. Right now, that's good looks more muted, that's mostly played through. We could get more tariffs later this year, leading to an entire round of new goods inflation. So the base case, yes, we'll see disinflation and goods, but I think the risks there are also skewed to the upside.

Speaker 2

Rob sackins with this here Marcus lift up fifty futures, now up sixty, nasak up two point one percent, now up two point four percent. You get the picture what I see here in Rob's can help me here because I'm doing amateur math. I got a GDP shot Q one from one point six. It came in a two point one. I got a GDP Price Index three point

five came in a higher three point six. Rob, get ready, if I add two point one and three point six, I get a five point seven percent quick nominal GDP eyeball, that's all I need to know, right.

Speaker 3

I mean, that's been the story for us all year. We've been calling this the overheating economy. That's been our base case, and that's nominal GDP grow five and a half six percent or higher. And that feels like where we're landing. And if you look at cut China like, it's very strong.

Speaker 2

Yellow numbers here in the screen, folks are yellow. It's Banana Republic yellow.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 2

Is that good that we have a five plus percent nominal?

Speaker 3

Well, if we look at the real side, you know, that's a good story. We've had a pretty resilient economy driven by AI capax a resilient upper income consumer fiscal support in the first half. But that worrying part is the inflation of that nominal GDP story, you know, far above the Fed's target, far too high, as we talked about earlier. We think that's going to moderate gradually, but you know, risks here to the upside and looks like this morning's print came in right in line with expectations.

You're running near three and a half percent on core PC inflation. When you know the FED target's two percent. It's going to take a lot of work and a lot of disinflation across categories to get back down to target. And I think that's Kevin Warsh's focus is getting back down to two percent without rounding, not in the vicinity of two, but back down to two.

Speaker 5

Tom.

Speaker 4

The two year treasury is down two basis points four point one two percent on.

Speaker 5

The news here.

Speaker 4

So, Rob, based upon what you heard from Kevin Walsh last week with his first meeting, Yeah, how do you think he's going to interpret it? Interpret this data here?

Speaker 3

I think what we saw from Kevin Warsh in his first meeting is at the moment, this is a FED with a one sided man date it was price stability. You saw that in the statement, you saw that in his comments, you saw that in the balance of risks in the Fed's SEP. Not much focus or worry about activity or GDP, GDP or the labor market, lots of

worry about inflation. And so I think here this is going to be in line with their concerns that inflation is running well above target and they're going to have to hike rates to bring inflation back down.

Speaker 4

Tom, you got to pay attention to these Wall Street guys. They just switch jobs left and right. There's no loyalty whatsoever. They just go for the big check.

Speaker 2

Rob.

Speaker 4

I just noticed that Rob, who was at City for a long time, he's now at p JIM.

Speaker 2

So I'm like two three times a year and make a mistake.

Speaker 4

And then so I'm like, so, where did Tom Percelly go? He was a p JIM.

Speaker 2

I look at him. He's at Wills Fargo. I mean no, just like Anthropic's and they're going for anthropic salaries.

Speaker 6

I know, I know this.

Speaker 2

Well, Rob, I got one more question and we got to keep it going. Scissorowski from Morgan's Aly is on deck right now. I'm sorry, I got to go back. Folks, help me here, mister Walsh. Chairman Walsh, as we're doing a special on green Span tomorrow with Abby, Joseph Cohen and Bloomberg Money Chairman worsh has got to look at a nominal GDP that none of these chairmen have ever

really seen. Because we had stimulus, President Trump would say the Biden stimulus, we had a medical event, we had more stimulus, and then Trump put it on you know, whatever you're thinking about the politics, folks, I mean there's no other topic to me than Banana Republic nominal GDP. What's the harm of that to our listeners and viewers?

Speaker 5

Yeah?

Speaker 3

Absolutely, And I mean you're seeing that reflected in many areas, this affordability issue that we keep talking about. Even though growth has been strong, the labor market's been relatively solid, you know, inflation has been high, and you're seeing that reflected in concerns about affordability. And I agree with you. I think for War she's looking at five plus years of missing the inflation target and saying, this is job

number one. We're missing. You know, three percent is not two percent, even two and a half percent is not two percent, and we have to hike rates. And we think they're going to hike three times this year to help bring some of those pressures down.

Speaker 2

When you come from Pigiam, do you get in the Greg Peters Hinkley picnic boat when you come across Hdson.

Speaker 3

Yes, well exactly.

Speaker 2

Yeah.

Speaker 3

We work closely with Greg and Deleep and then you're just the teen over there, Robert.

Speaker 2

Tips and it's got the side thrusters, you know. Then Rob Stock and thank you so much. A terrific brief there and a wall of economic data. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us Live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us Live on.

Speaker 2

You Shoining us on Sebastian at page all that he does for Tierro Price, it is wonderful, wonderful effort on diversification. His book was really quite important, Sebastian audible. Paul and I were bedazzled by your father's day. This is your father, You and your son going four hundred and twenty miles north of Montreal up. I were like in X Files and Asteroid hit in Quebec and you were out there fishing. What sturgeon, Sebastian, were you attempting to catch?

Speaker 6

You know, Tommy and I have talked about the mean flies that you get in the wilderness. There are lots of flies over there. You take a prop plane to bake AMOI drive three hours north into the wilderness. The experience was wonderful because my son, who speaks mainly English, had to improve his French and my dad, who speaks mainly French, had to improve his English. We had a great time. I'm not going to lie. The fish was small. I thought it was delicious.

Speaker 2

Well, I did one more question in this because there's so much to talk about, Sebastian. Tell me there was no cell phone for your son. He couldn't use his iPhone.

Speaker 6

You know what's disappointing is just recently my father. It's in the wilderness.

Speaker 5

Tom.

Speaker 6

He got starlink and let me tell you, it works, So it kind of ruined a little bit of the experience.

Speaker 2

Okay, let's seegwy here. I'll get what Barty Paul wants to jump in. Let me do this quickly. Sebastian page on the event of SpaceX and Starlink anthropic to follow on and arrest your take on SpaceX.

Speaker 6

Look, in general, those IPOs are being very well absorbed. We believe in the AI trade. We're bullish. We're long us large gap growth. Tom. Interestingly, people worry about debt levels and the sustainability of earnings. The Russell one thousand large gap growth over the last five years at times has traded as high as thirty price earnings ratio. We're

at twenty two, so we've actually moved money there. We're following the AI bottleneckt it's about cooling, it's about electrification, it's about the component you're missing, it's about emerging markets. Now it's an expanding trade. We believe in this fundamentally because we're doing the research three hundred analysts at tiro price, but also because the end user demand is there. They're billions of users. Yes, they balk at some times more

expensive tokens. It goes up and down, but generally there is demand and application for AI and we're in that trade.

Speaker 4

Sebastian talk to us about momentum trading here. It seems like we're seeing that in this market here, kind of following some of the big cap growth names that have been winners. Talked to us about how you think about momentum.

Speaker 6

And this is a huge debate on our investment platform, Paul's it's unbelievable how strong momentum has been. I wanted to illustrate this for our investors, and I created this very simple return chasing strategy where you buy the top ten stocks based on the prior returns for twelve months every month on the S and P five hundred, and you go back in time and you see how well this return chasing momentum trade has worked. And I was

just almost fell off my chair. The profits if you exclude transaction costs from this dumb momentum chasing just buy the top ten performing stocks over the last twelve months. Rebalance every month is forty percent annualize over the S and P five hundred for the last three years. This is how strong momentum has been, strongest than any time over the last twenty five years. So what do you do? You either neutralize the risk. You need to be aware of the risk if you're looking for mean reversion, if

you're looking for things to normalize. But either way, in our portfolios, we've got to manage this risk inflation.

Speaker 4

We're seeing oil coming down pretty dramatically here as we appear to have some movement towards peace in Iran. Here, does that take away the inflation risk in this marketplace? Do you think? No?

Speaker 6

I think for the next three to six months, the inflation risk is still there. It could still surprise on the upside. Counterintuitively, it might surprise on the upside even more because oilists come down. What I mean by that is, the market's pricing of inflation is quite low. The break even one year right now is one point seven percent. The swap rate for one year on inflation is two

point two two point three percent. Meanwhile, if you analyze the last three months the headline print, it's eight percent even the shelter component last three months analyzes four eight percent.

So yes, all prices are coming down, but you have a lot of lag defects Paul on inflation from insurance and freight costs going up to transportation to industrial production to final goods, from fiscal to stimulus to demand increasing from fertilizer to food price Inflation moves with lags, and I think market's underestimating those lags.

Speaker 2

Should our listeners and viewers Sebastian, I mean, you wrote the definitive book on this. Should they be concerned about concentration in their large cap four one K portfolio?

Speaker 6

You know, interestingly those companies, Yes, there's concentration if you look at the handful of CEOs that controls so much of the market cap, but their revenues are quite diversified and quite robust. So I'm actually giving you a nuancedence or tom for someone who's written a book on diversification. It might not be as big a risk as people think. If you look at the ec and I'll make diversification of the revenues and the sustainability of the cashflow generation

from those big companies. But the nuances it's pretty extreme biohistorical standards is basically near an all time high in concentration.

Speaker 2

Sebastian, your trooper hauling your son up there halfway to the north Pole. Greatly appreciate he is the t row Price sponsoring the Baltimore Orioles. Sebastian Page joins us how good his book out on Twitter and LinkedIn. It's really extraordinary on this idea of diversification. Stay with us. More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

What a joy to have in the studio. Definitive and I mean definitive on all of commodities in the frontier world, the third world. Her leadership is standard. Charter Bank with their understanding of Southeast Asia. I think a Freeport mcmarine in Indonesia and all that, we are thrilled. Suki Cooper joins us this morning with a standard charter bank. She gets to work with Steve Anglider. It's pretty good. So other is to it gold? You look tigging Freeport bank

Marine in Indonesia. Every central bank wants to buy gold. Let's start with the why. Why do they want to buy gold at the margin.

Speaker 7

Historically there's three golds and gold achieves that they want stability, they want liquidity, they want returns. But what we've seen over the past four years is that there are additional reasons to want to buy gold in addition to diversification. It's concerns around geopolitical risks. It's wanting to have a store of value. It's wanting to have that hedge. And it's not just central banks. We've seeing that play out

through the investors side as well. But for central banks in particular, they've been the marginal buyers.

Speaker 2

How did a return to the name teen thirties, nineteen twenties, the nineteen tens.

Speaker 7

It's not so much a return to the wanting to have that monetary stability. It's more so one to strengthen balance sheets and have optionality, but also wanted to diversify at the same time, so some of the There's a Central Bank gold survey that was released last week and this is i'd say the best survey for us to be looking at because it signals from seventy six different central banks what their intentions are. And we had a record forty five percent saying that they intended to increase

their own gold reserves over the next twelve months. And that's the highest we've had and when we had such strong figures in the past, it's translated into record value terms.

Speaker 4

In additions, since the end of January of this year, gold's down about twenty five percent, where now we're below four thousand dollars per ounce. What's going on there.

Speaker 7

It's a historic day and that we've seen the lowest settlement since November twenty twenty five. We've seen a huge pivot from January now to what the gold market's focused on. Yes, there was over positioning at the start of the year, but there was also more of a focus on the structural drivers behind gold. Now there's been that pivot towards less, so the debasement, trade, concerns around real yels rising, the

Dotland being much stronger. So we've seen this macro headwinds developing, but it's come at a time when we've seen a need for liquidity really pressuring the gold market. So it's a combination of factors, a combination of headwinds that we think they're going to keep gold price fagrile in the near turn. But beyond that we was still positive.

Speaker 4

Yeah, because I mean, I'm just looking back at my gold chart here on my Bloomberg terminal here, it's been for several years nothing but up. So this turned down is really something different. And I'm wondering because it seems like when we were talking about gold over the last four or five years, it was just everybody was buying. The central banks for buying, individuals were by, everybody was buying.

Speaker 7

Yeah that really I think twenty twenty five was the year where we had investors wanted to buy, ETF holders, short investors, and central banks. But before then it was largely central banks that had helped to raise the floor for gold prices. But what's changed this year is that we still have that central bank buying, but the ETFs have turned negative. We've seen significant adverts.

Speaker 2

So is that an opportunity? I mean, you know when Steve Englander leans over the desk and says, Suki, where are we going? Are you saying gold six thousand?

Speaker 7

We haven't changed our price podcast. We still have one hundred and fifty as.

Speaker 2

For our break to make sense.

Speaker 7

So but in the near term it's fired India's demand to slow down. We've got the headwinds from real yields.

Speaker 2

We've got to.

Speaker 7

Focus on the inflation data in an hour's time, where markets might be pricing in an increased ever increasing probability a.

Speaker 2

Night just finishingly equad as New Jewel eighteen seventy three. Of course, he wrote Lords of Finance eight years ago. And the arc over that is our gold and silver bounce off the mining the supply, Oh we found silver in the therefore the silver price changes. We have record gold mining now, am I right?

Speaker 7

We do?

Speaker 2

What does that mean for the price of gold? Is that bad?

Speaker 7

It hasn't been because the market's been so keen to absorb all that supply. We haven't seen recycling responding as much. Norman. It's price elastic, but we haven't seen as much distress selling when it.

Speaker 2

Comes hasn't sold. The gold is still there.

Speaker 4

So what else in the world of pressures. Models jumps out at you these days. Where is their value?

Speaker 5

Do you think? Relatively?

Speaker 7

We think going forward there's going to be much more focus on where we see demand growth. And of course there's the AI demand growth and that benefits silver, benefits platinum. And when we're looking at chips, we look at electronics hard disk drive, so that demand looks relatively, looks robust. We look for markets where we expect them to be undersupplied. We think the platinum market's life has be undersupplied for the.

Speaker 4

Next couple of years, but them come from.

Speaker 7

Largest from South Africa and then.

Speaker 4

Exactly mild exactly so platinum, and it touches about pladium as well. Listen, I got my global clod and his price thing up on the Bloomberg terminal, I courting everything.

Speaker 7

Pladium is under a little bit of pressure right now with the Middle East conflict reigorating concerns that we might see a fast pace for EV sales, and that's put the internal combustion engine sales perception under pressure list the near term.

Speaker 2

With respect to Steve Englander is a Suki Cooper world linked to his is gold still linked to US dollar dynamics.

Speaker 7

Interestingly, over the past few weeks that correlation has become important again with the US dollar with real yields and inflation expectations. And it hadn't really mattered and go back to twenty twenty two in Russia and Radio Ukraine. But now but now it's back. We've seen such inflation.

Speaker 2

Worry, dollars stronger, yields up.

Speaker 7

Gold up, potentially lower in the near term, but we think that those structural drivers that had been pushing gold higher will come back to the forefront. In the near term. It's fragile, but beyond that, we think the structural drivers are still.

Speaker 2

Yeah, I got a Rooshu Sharman lived here in copper from the depths of twenty twenty two. It's a solid double in copper. What is the lift in copper signal to Suki Cooper.

Speaker 7

So the copper market is indicating partially the demand growth around AI, demand around electrification of vehicles, like data centers, like data centers. Yeah, so we're seeing a robust outlook when it comes to the demand profile, and when we think about the mind supply side, the question is really can of keep pace. So when we're seeing investment across mining, there's more of an appetite to want to invest in copper projects because they're that stronger demand picture going forward.

But in the very near term there's focus on the US tariff review, which is due up for We should have more details on it before the end of next week at the thirtieth of June. So the copper prices have been kept elevated by some of that uncertainty around the risks on tariffs being impacted.

Speaker 4

I got silver down twenty percent year to data.

Speaker 2

Is that just.

Speaker 4

A sympathy trade with gold or is there something special there.

Speaker 7

I think it's a little bit more exaggerated because of the retail element. Silver tends to do well when they're strong industrial demand but also strong invested demand. And we know at the start of the year there was tremendous retail demand for for silver. That has moderated. It's still there, it's just not as strong as it was at the start of the year, and silver now no longer has

the additional ETF flows pushing it higher. To we still see the market as being undersupplied, but we think that increasing volumes of ETFs turning negative in terms of profit making positions is likely to weigh on silver in the near term.

Speaker 2

I mean part it's like, this is what AI is about in Google Gemini, which I use here religiously, folks, thank you mister Secunda for that. I look up amphanol, which is like a moonshot. Right now, they make stuff for data centers, a custom flexible copper bus bar, and connectors got to have that. And it's like sheets of thin copper. Right, that's tangible, and forget about all this anthropic stuff. I need copper bus bars, right.

Speaker 7

This is also another fascinating area. Silver is used heavily for solar panels, but now they're starting to look into alternatives with copper instead. So silver has benefited from growth in the solar industry, but there is that substitution risk too.

Speaker 2

Okay, we gotta go. We don't care. All we want to know is what you think about England and the World Cup. They looked a little tired out there.

Speaker 7

I'm still supporting England all the way.

Speaker 2

I mean, it's basically Hairy and everybody else.

Speaker 7

It's a team effort.

Speaker 2

It didn't wait first the first first half was do you understand cricket? No?

Speaker 4

I barely understand baseball.

Speaker 2

Some she SHEI, mister Bloomberg, put me in some Sheshi hotel near like Trafalgars Square, and I watched your cricket for three hours with a beverage and no, I am no idea what I was doing. Suki regards to Steven under Standard Charter Bank, Suki Cooper just absolutely spectacular. Her thoughts on Gold important and go to Standard Charter for her important literature. Stay with us more from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.

Speaker 1

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Eastern Listen on Apple Karplay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 2

This is a joy and really a great privilege out of the combine of the Carolinas and his Washington D C. Lee Roberts joins us on Chancellor UNC Chapel Hill. I got to get the Collein sing first, but I'm not going to mince words. People go like, Tom, how do you do this? And I do. I had the honor of standing at a piano in Georgetown with John Dickerson and explaining the impact of Nancy Dickerson on my household as a kid. Folks, Nancy Dickerson, John Dickerson's mother invented

Barbara Walters. Barbara Walters did her act and she invented someone called Koki Roberts. What was it like growing up in Washington and the crucible of the Roberts household? Stephen Robertson, Cokie Roberts.

Speaker 8

Well, good morning, Thanks for having me, Thanks for mentioning my parents.

Speaker 5

It was definitely different.

Speaker 8

A lot of conversations about politics and policy around the dining room.

Speaker 2

To excuse me, Nixon's online two. Is that what it was like?

Speaker 8

Well, you know, I think for a lot of Washington households, you grow up with that around, so it wasn't unique among my friends.

Speaker 2

I'm going to put you on the spot because I got too much respect for your family. The new Washington Posts. Can they resurrect it? Can they get it back to the dust? You and I knew.

Speaker 8

I got to tell you the Washington Post. Most of what I read there is about the Washington Redskins. They call them the Commanders now. But I'm a lifeloung you can come back. That's what I read the Washington Post for Lee.

Speaker 4

Talk to us about managing a large university. I don't care if it's a state university like you, and so you are a private university in a world where funding really seems to be at risk, that public private partnership that had been the bedrock of this country since World War Two is under threat. Talk to us about how the environment is today.

Speaker 8

A lot of uncertainty around federal research funding. I will say that despite the proposals for significant cuts in federal research funding, what was actually passed and signed by the President basically held federal funding flat. Now the priorities are changing around, and that's not a bad thing. They need to be updated, and the process through which we receive the funding needs to be streamlined, and and again that's

not a bad thing at all. The biggest challenge though, is that federal funding is not being dispersed in the way that it was allocated. So you're seeing a lot of universities waiting for grant funding. At the same time, there's tuition pressure, there's public funding pressure. But we're really fortunate in North Carolina to have such strong support from such a fast growing state.

Speaker 5

That's a good.

Speaker 4

Point just in general for higher education. There's probably universal agreement that the tuition growth that exceeds inflation in my entire lifetime every year. What does that suggest to you? That is not a feasible financial model in most people's minds. How do you guys think about it?

Speaker 8

I agree it's a challenge for higher education generally. But at North Carolina, we've been ranked the best value in higher education for twenty one years in a row by US News and World Report. It was Duke and then finally our in state tuition is nine thousand dollars a year, so it's a pretty good deal. It was flat for nine straight years. It's going up by three percent this year. It's actually gone down in real terms by about twenty

percent over the last nine years. So we have a pretty good story to tell at Carolina when it comes to affordability.

Speaker 2

Lee Robots, You look at any fancy school up in New York, the prep schools, and it's absolutely shocking. The migration south. It's like a whole new generational world. Why are they going to Wake Forest, Why are they going to UNC Even if they don't want to go to.

Speaker 8

Duke, You know, I think weather in sports has something to do with it. Greek life is important for some students.

Speaker 2

It's ay sick of the great inflation at the major schools in the Northeast.

Speaker 8

Well, I think it's okay for college to be fun, and I think that's what students are looking for. It's not only fun, but the dimension of front and college is a good thing.

Speaker 2

Yeah. But do you have great inflation at UNC like they have some of these schools up north?

Speaker 8

You know, I think you do see great inflation across the board in US universities. Saw the report coming out of Yale, obviously a lot of news out of Harvard. That's something for the entire sector to tackle.

Speaker 4

Lee we've seen stories of universities physically expanding their footprints beyond their existing campus schools, buying schools in San Francisco to get exposure to the technology. Is that something that you and see thinks about.

Speaker 8

You won't see us expanding physically outside of North Carolina, I don't think. But we do have about eight hundred acres a mile and a half from our existing campus that we plan to build out as a full blown new campus. Given that we're growing enrollment, given the huge demand for STEM classes.

Speaker 5

You need new facilities for that.

Speaker 8

And look, we have a huge housing problem in the town of Chapel Hill, which is a problem for the university as an employer. We can use this land to help address all three of those challenges.

Speaker 2

How do you do, for example, the dorm housing thing, how do you do that against the pressure of competition that we have to have dorms and apartments, suites that look like the Saint Regis over in fifty fourth Street. I mean, the whole elite versus just getting my first dorm room in Colorado. I think it hit electricity. I mean, how do you balance this fancy fancy with the reality you just put the eighteen year old in a room.

Speaker 8

Well, look, we're a public school, and we're the first public university in the US, not one of the first, of the first. Really the median age of our dorms is nineteen forty. We've got two outside my window that date from the eighteenth century, so that was well before climbing walls.

Speaker 5

It was before HVAC.

Speaker 8

And so we're trying to upgrade our housing stock. But we're building modern chevy, We're not building catalogs.

Speaker 4

What's the greatest threat to your business, your business model, the model of running at public state, public university beause.

Speaker 8

Look, I think the thing everyone is grappling with is artificial intelligence, and what does it mean for higher education. We've never just been in the business of transmitting information. If that were the case, then YouTube would have destroyed higher ad. We need to make sure that students have the wisdom and the judgment to go along with this gusher of information coming out.

Speaker 4

I've been saying to everybody the last job I think I'd want to have today is an educator high school, middle school, and of course certainly in higher education. What are I mean you guys are learning like we're learning right on the fly. What are some of the policies you guys have kind of instituted or thought about instituting.

Speaker 8

Well, you're right, that's a real challenge because the external environment is changing so quickly, and universities don't change very quickly. And that's okay. That goes along with our remarkable stability, but that tension is heightened at a time like the one we find ourselves in. Now, we have a new policy whereby you can choose one of three policies for your syllabus as a professor about how AI will be used in the classroom. So instead of defining the policy for yourself.

Speaker 5

Which is where we were before.

Speaker 8

Which was confusing students, you have to choose one of three. We'll give students a lot more predictability about how they can use AI in a given class.

Speaker 2

I literally sat in a fancy prep school gym in New York City and they announced that Georgetown and MIT we're bringing back test stores. We got this fiasco out in California with the faculty saying we can't teach the kids u NC on a new rigor of admission and a rigor while you're an undergraduate at the school.

Speaker 8

So I think the key is just to make sure that students have the skills that they need to thrive over the course of a few plus year career. And those aren't going away even as the workforce continues to change very rapidly. Communication skills, critical reasoning, problem solving, ethics, judgment, those are going to serve students well no matter what the workforce looks.

Speaker 2

Well, we got a problem, Janet Lawrence listening now, it's just too much. Janel Lauren Joys all of our education coverage, and she has been wonderful about any given school in the acreage. Now you mentioned your acreage at u NC, and I know you've got is it the Lineberger Cancer Center?

Speaker 5

It is you're building.

Speaker 2

Explain the machinery. People are going like, we need a football stadium because Belichick has been so successful, or we need a new English classroom. You know that was built in nineteen forty two, and instead you're building the hospital palaces. You want to explain that funding, the thinking of that.

Speaker 5

Well, we've got to do all of those.

Speaker 8

You know, you can teach English in the same classroom for one hundred years, and we do at Carolina, But you can't do that with biology or chemistry, which are some of our most popular majors, fastest growing majors. Everybody knows about the arms race in college athletics facilities, and we're trying to upgrade and improve our facilities. And we

have an enormously important health sciences specialty at Carolina. You mentioned our cancer center, medical school, nursing school, pharmacy, dentistry, public health. Those all require advanced facilities.

Speaker 2

It's a demand for nursing right now.

Speaker 8

It's off the charge, off the charge We've got a severe nursing shortage in North Carolina and around the country. We're about to open a new nursing building at Carolina to try to address that demand.

Speaker 5

It's a challenge for the whole There's.

Speaker 2

Salaries coming out pull they're like popping income.

Speaker 4

I know then it's good for the young folks. Lee talked to US athletics. UNC has one of the premier athletics the doormans in the country. I know it because we compete against them every day. Nil transfer portal boy talk about change in college athletics, it's just mixed, Jordory. How does Carolina think about it?

Speaker 5

Well, no one's seen anything like this before. You're right.

Speaker 8

We have a long and proud history in college sports. Twenty eight sports. We made to the finals in Omaha, lost in the final game on Monday night. But we're proud of the breadth of our athletics program. Women's lacrosse, women's soccer, field hockey arguably the best in those three sports nationally. But the current system is not working. It costs too much. It's not good for anybody. Nobody designed this system. It came about as the results of a series of court cases and so you know, I came

from the private sector. To me, it's rare you look at a situation and say, you know, what would make this better if only the US Congress would get involved. But in this case, I think get calls out for for federal regular.

Speaker 2

Presidents and people like you, I mean, Lee Robberts, Chancellor u NC just saying no, we're not going to do this.

Speaker 5

No, because it's too competitive.

Speaker 8

We really do need we need federal harmonization of the world that we're in now. That's come about from these patchwork court rulings, and there is bipartisan legislation, the Cruise Cantwell legislation that the President has endorsed.

Speaker 2

I mean, I don't know if you know this, but Paul's got the Belichick question. We got to ask it. I just want to say, first, I rooted for UNC in the March madness because Seth Trimble had the courage to go four years to school. I just thought that was the coolest thing versus this idiotic freshman year only thing.

Speaker 5

Yeah.

Speaker 8

I appreciate that, great great player, great young man hell and some greats.

Speaker 4

You know, Bill Belichick talk about an ad of the box selection for a head.

Speaker 2

Coach was that your fault?

Speaker 4

How do you guys what was kind of behind that? It was certainly a high profile decision. It was a bold decision, but again outside of the box decision. How are you guys thinking about that? On campus?

Speaker 8

Ye, we're just trying to raise our level of competitiveness in football and we have a long tradition. We've been playing football since eighteen eighty eight. We're about to play our one hundredth season in Keenan Stadium, but we haven't been at the elite level the way we want to be. And you look across the board at our peers, everyone's trying to invest more money in football. Everyone's trying to get better. Duke Obviously, Vanderbilt, Georgia Tech schools you wouldn't

think of as traditional football powerhouses. Everybody trying to raise their game in football, and coach Belichick's.

Speaker 5

Off to a terrific start. We're excited for the season.

Speaker 4

So talk about international students. How are they Are they relevant to you guys as a state university because I know a lot of private universities are really feeling the strain that their farm application pulls down dramatically for variety of reasons.

Speaker 8

International students add immeasurably to the vibrancy in life of our campus community, but we don't depend on them financially the way a lot of private schools do. We are only about five percent international students at the undergrad level. Really well, that's because we only have eighteen percent non North Carolina.

Speaker 5

Students out of state students, and.

Speaker 8

So the international students have to fit into that eighteen percent out of state cap higher. At the graduate level, depending on the program, we're about ten percent overall when you mix graduate and undergraduate. But we went up this year in international students. We were up by about twelve percent, and we were up from each of our five biggest seventeen countries individually.

Speaker 2

I find it to me there's like four or five good I mean to wrap this uply, and this has been just fabulous. I look at it like there's almost three or four college experiences coming off the Clinton Revolution. And there's the stereotype, Paul of the party school kids which you u and see is you know, the next kids having fun like you say, Lee. But the thing that people miss within all the critique are the kids coming in and working yep, and the work ethic you know,

I make jokes about it. Doctors out of Duke and un see it while Cornell and that I mean those kids doing STEM. They're different than we were, aren't.

Speaker 8

They like students, work hard, and they also know that getting an internship is the most important factor in getting a job after graduation. So they're really looking for those kinds of practical experiences to help them in the in the job market and gain more practical experience.

Speaker 4

I think half of Bloomberg News is from Carolina, the journalism school.

Speaker 2

They're all over the place.

Speaker 5

It's a good thing, you know.

Speaker 2

They are all over the PLA. We say regards to Peter Grower, yes it is a leader here at bloom Work and of course he went to ye, you've never spoken to mister Grower. We have our words words, Lee Roberts, thank you so much with UNC Chapel Hill Chancellor. That was a real treat here, folks, just to digress away into something and of course shocking there that eighteen percent cap out of State International at UNC.

Speaker 1

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