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Joining us now Gene Monster in Minneapolis, obviously iconic with Piper Jeff.
For years ago. Surety could join us from deep Water Asset Management.
Dressed appropriately, Dan ives here a calar milage with aviator. Very nice. I'm awake, Gene Monster. I'm gonna start with you. Here's ives. He talks to Barons yesterday, Adam Clark, and he says, Apple, Microsoft and in video will be worth four trillion. We're not that far away, are we, gene Monster. How do they get the four million? Is it cash flow?
Is it earnings or is it hype?
I think it's probably two thirds expanding multiple and quickly I'll touch that in a second. I think it's probably one third expanding earnings when you look at like's just focusing on Apple. The expectations for this year, surprisingly are the iPhone growth is three percent. It's come down for five percent. This is for fiscal twenty five, so that number has been declining. It's eight percent for fiscal twenty six. So the I think that there's upside of those numbers.
Dan and I can talk about how we get there, but I think that's one piece of it. But the second piece is what I continua believe. We've talked about this for the past year. This this three to five year bowl market. So we're probably in the early part of the second year that's going to continue to go up and then a spectacular bursting of the bubble. And just put some quick numbers around this time is that if you look at the Nasdaq, it's kind of trading
mid to highest twenty percent on next year earnings. At the peak of the dot com bubble, it traded at one hundred times. We're not going to get back to thee hundred by any measure, but I think you could see a four multiple of fifty as just the hype around AI is just going to become intoxicating.
Jennives I got on the Bloomberg Apple free cash flow pre pandemic sixty billion and they go out now to one hundred and ten billion. My thesis here is everybody's looking at the hype and the Dan Ives romance and Gene monster flying around, Jim Cook meeting with King Charles forget about it.
Is it just financial oomph that is making mag seven go.
Yeah, and look, I mean me and Jim talked about this before. The biggest thing is, even when you'll get Apple, you're not factoring in into numbers the AIS services piece as is essentially a new app store gets built on Apple intelligence. What that means from a services perspective, we think that could ultimately add ten to fifteen percent more to services and Tom that's why I think a year from now you're looking at four and a half trillion.
What I believe over the coming years we're going to do five trillion dollar mark caps as we think about Godfather, Bi, Genen, Nvidia, Apple, and ultimately Microsoft.
So Gene, I'd love to get your thoughts just kind of because I know you've covered Apple for a long time. You've seen the product cycle for this company over decades. Here, how do you frame out for your clients the AI play for Apple.
It's twofold.
I think the first is just this kind of the tailwind with Dan's talking about, I think that injecting AI into twenty percent of.
The world's population.
A couple of days ago was a big deal about what they've what they added to the eighteen point two upgrade.
So I think that that.
First part, Paul, is just this hardware growth and as I mentioned, the streets at three percent, what does it mean for the business injecting AI into this This is the first time software service.
You know, this AI features is really the selling point.
I think it can be eight percent growth and we can have meaningful upside to iPhone over the next year. And then the second phase, Dan touchdown it around.
Kind of what.
Happens with the app store is that you can see it in the dropdown menu. If you start digging around a eteam point two, you can see within the Apple Intelligence menu there's a point where you can pick which LLM you're using.
So they're gonna add other ms. They will add other.
Ones that are pay for so you upgrade, then they'll make more on their app store. So I think that's the second chapter hardware. First second is the app store.
Gene Monster.
Dan ives with us for this entire half hour, and I've already had three emails.
Yes, folks. In our next.
Block, we'll cover Tesla Paul continue here on mag seven X Tesla.
Hey Dan, we've actually heard over the last I guess A couple of Quarters investors asked the question of Okay, I get the AI spend. I see the numbers. I got a sense of it's big and it's incremental. How about the returnal in that investment? That's now a question that people are hearing.
How do you talk to your.
Clients about what are we getting all this is spending on AI?
Look, I think, hey, if you look at Salesforce dot com and you what was happening in software? They were waiting in line to get into an AI party while Jensen's on the dance floor, Elison of course cook and now behind those velvet ropes they're like Benioff, come on in now. So now software is part of the AI part because of the use cases, and that's why it continues to be ten pm in the AI party that goes to four am.
Okay, I got to switch to Microsoft because you know we have this apple.
The world's gonna end. Shyness terrible. I's just saying shut up and buy it. Muster's saying shut up and buy it. Moonshot Q three Q four, and it's like Sachia nan Della's falling off the face of the earth. Dana, I's an update on Microsoft into the quarterly report.
Get the popcorn out, because this is just the start of more and more enterprises side.
What are they doing right?
I thought she had GPT was troubled because in the backyard of Microsoft are more and more enterprises. They're moving on copil, moving to AI from the cloud perspective. This is really what I've used the more and more the catalyst going into next year, the hyperscalees not just Microsoft. Gen's talked about again, Google, Amazon, this is now the second third derivative of the AI revolution.
Gene monster on Google sort of off my radar here, I mean Search, the government's going to.
Go after them.
Do you have a confidence in an entire and total Google versus the split up that we hear from both Republicans and Democrats.
I just got to say one thing about Dan for a second before I answer that Tom. No one illustrates as a better language of kind of illustrating what goes on than Dan. So I just appreciate that at the party, because that's exactly what's going on. Google has a seat at that party. They're also behind that red velvet road. You mention that party two wearing his purples.
But Paul, you got to take the next question.
So Google, in of Google, basically the pressure point on this is, I don't think it's around regulation.
I don't think anything's gonna happen there. I think it's really what happens with search.
And coming back to what happened in the September quarter, I think it was the most important number, that search number that Google has had in the last decade. Specifically is that they saw on acceleration in the US after one full quarter of these AI overviews. And so what that meant is by them injecting a at the top of the search results, that they were still getting more search revenue. And that's kind of the keeps what has
been keeping investors up at night. The other beautiful part about the Google story is, you know they have these other bets. I think what happened related to, you know, their quantum computing that a two hundred and fifty billion in market cap this week.
That was probably a little bit of a stretch.
But what they have around Weymoa we can talk about in the next segment.
What's going on there and relevant to to Tesla.
But I just think Google is in a great position for this AI party.
Paul YouTube is on fire, on fire and the live chat thank you HL can't wait for Dan ives.
I know what is that about.
But also look at Paul's sports shock. I think no one's talking about that from.
County Donegal, Ireland.
This sports shock more amazing as Sweeney's work three fridays in a row. He's trying to be like the Japanese to get to the four day work we get built out of the family.
Paul continues, Hey, Gene, I'm gonna ask you to rehash once again. I kind of do it every time you come on because it's so important for our listeners and viewers. Put it into context like you can do AI versus say, I don't know the internet electricity, how big is AI in your mind?
So the framework we use is that you know, at the highest level, what's been the most impactful has been electricity, and we put that at a scale of zero to one hundred. At one hundred, I mean, it's just hard to argue that piece. But I would put mobile around twenty five. I think the PC probably around thirty five In terms of the importance, I understand these technologies stack on top of each other, but I just think about in terms of value creation what they can do for investors.
Put the Internet at fifty and I've put AI at ninety ninety five. If not for so, I think we're I just want to frame in one other piece just around this, like you know, you hear Dan and I talk about this enthusiasm, this party that's going on, and parties have a tendency to end, and when they end, there's a hangover after it, and we're going to have that in terms of a spectacular burst in the bubble. But I think this party is still appreciate that analogy, Dan,
I think the party is still raging. And I just want to give an example. Broadcom this morning up seventeen percent in the pre market. They talked about their twenty twenty seven numbers effectively being like forty to fifty billion. For their AI revenue was twelve billion. And so this concept that like the hardware companies, the NVIDIAs, the broad cooms, that they're going to somehow hit a wall here in late twenty four or early twenty five, it's not happening.
I want to get this thing because we really want to focus on Tesla.
Here.
This incredible call to these two players here. But let me start with you, Dan Eyves and Gene. I want you to pick up on the same thing. I want you to forget about the media. I want to forget about you. And down in Florida, Belski's dressed in white. He looks like neyrou at a convention in the sixties.
Ives is dressed up looking like a fruit loop. And you know, Munster, it's all those romance of media and that you go into a top five long only buy side equity shop and you're talking to heavyweights about their over commitment to mag seven.
How do they respond, Dan Ives to your enthusiasts.
The first thing I say is stop trying to find AI in your spreadsheet, because that's how many have missed every transmissional tech name the last twenty years. And two, when you look at what's happening here, it's about some of the parts, Like I would argue, like the autonomous piece for Tesla, that's not and I'd say that's still the most under value I play in the market day
not being fully valued. You look at what the ultimate valuation and what this is going to do from financially right from mag seven is still massively unappreciated, and it speaks to why I believe next year tech stocks are up into the twenty.
Five or Gene Monster.
When you go into the CFA crew at a long only buyside shop, pick your victim, Federated Fidelity, whatever, Genemunster, what's your terminal value? Can you go out five year vision, seven year vision?
Yeah?
I think that those are hard to you know, midling out five years is difficult, but that's ultimately where money is made. And to answer your question on the five year vision on this, as I would simplify just kind of across megacap is that there is going They're going to grow faster for longer, as simple as that sounds. But again I think the broadcom is representative of that. And so when I think about what that value creation is, I'm generally looking like a.
Year two years out.
My opinion is, for example, a year from now apples three fifteen. I think that, uh so, I think that there continues to move higher.
Gene Monster with us and Dan, I thanks for the huge response, particularly out on YouTube. Greatly appreciate that. Dan, I'm going to talk to short on Tesla, You're completely opposed. I got one hundred and forty one thousand employees, I got single digit revenue growth.
I got a pe of maybe one hundred and seventy.
How do you equate that to MAGA mag seven success? How do you get those ratios which tell you south into your call north?
Sure? So I think on Tesla it continues to really be about autonomous and AI. And when you think about this story going forward, it's going to be a full self driving penetration autonomous and what I've ultimately, Oh, I have it.
I think you wouldn't talk to Gene Monster then.
So look, I think over the next four to five years there will be a point where Sweeney is getting into a cybercab, no driver taken him to play golf. That that will happen next four to five years.
All right? That that I mean, if that happens, that is a whole new game.
But that's our And again, the whole issue is that between the Musk Trump romance. The reason it's so important for the stock is because now regulation in this country is going to rapidly change in terms of autonomous, and that we believe a trillion dollars alone for Tessa's valuation just based on autonomous.
Jane, get us up to speed on this, and you come at this from loop Venture's a deep water asset where you've really dived into the entrepreneurial part of technology.
Do you buy the ives story.
One hundred percent?
I think that the reality is is that if you're born today, there's no chance, and you're gonna born in the US today, there's no chance, and you're gonna ever need a driver's license.
If you're eight years old today, there's no chance.
And Jeane talk about what you talk about with your kid, like how you always say like your kid, like with your kid?
Yeah, since she I have a daughter, she's eight years old, and I had a bet when just after she was born that she would never have a driver's license, and a couple of weeks ago.
I'd had.
I tried the latest version of Tesla FSD for twenty minutes and had a couple interventions. It's not there yet, but it is remarkable the progress that's making. I think that the whole conversation around Tesla, very few people are actually experiencing how far along they are, and then you layer on top of that the fact that humans are becoming worst drivers forty thousand plus people lose their lives a year and auto accents in the US alone, And then you layer on top of that what GM Cruise
announced this week basically backing off from autonomy. It just leaves this wide open opportunity for Tesla to really be I think one of the two key players within autonomy, and so I think that that's not fully appreciated and shares the Tesla So Dan, when.
We think about the Tesla story, I mean I part of me, the cynic of me, thinks Elon Musk is trying to get me to take my focus away from bending metal, which is a low margin business, competitive business, to other bets to use a tern but you think those other bets like autonomous driving, robotaxis are real.
But I view its similar to like as Keen has talked about for a decade. It's like with Apple, but originally and Jeans talking about it as well, you just looked at Apple as a hardware player smartphone. Yeah, but what's been the key to the evaluation why it's gonna be the first one the four trillion dollar mark Club. It's because of services. It's because so when you think about Tesla, I would compare Autonomous the software FS to Apple services relative to that creuper Tino story.
That's why it's so important.
Seven million vehicles out there, you have ten million vehicles over the next year or two.
And even when you look at.
Waimo, which is a Google Play, those are two hundred thousand hours.
I got to get this in yesterday. We had great coverage.
Thank you to our team for linking it up with the President elect at the New York Stock Exchange.
The billionaire of the United States was not there.
I answer the critics of r and Musta and ives. Is he getting taxpayer support for all of his ventures? Is he getting a free ride off the back of the American textpayer?
I disagree.
I would argue you're talking about he made a bet for the ages with Trump and essentially iced out if you look at last administrations when it comes to by an administration, especially around EV's and now you're gonna really see him doubling down and within the Beltway, there's gonna be major changes. And when that knock of the door happens.
It's must Geene monster, give me an EV update we got we won't want the Chinese in Europe's I read about BMW and Mercedes.
It's a train wreck basically and no pun intended.
Gee monster, What is the optimal EVS strategy for our listeners across America?
If you're thinking about buying ev buy in the next two weeks in the US, because what could happen with those tax credits as far as like what's happening with the broader market. Just looking at Tesla, for example, units are basically going to be flatish for calendar twenty four. Must talk about twenty to thirty percent growth for next year,
so a huge rebound that's surprised analysts, investors. The street right now is looking for fourteen percent, so kind of saying that Elon's being too optimistic on that.
But I think the big picture, Tom, is.
That we're coming through the EV winter here into starting to be a spring, and ultimately I think that evs just are naturally a better way to move around. It's not a political statement, it's a it's basically a physics statement, and I think that the free hand of the market will prove out that it's a more efficient way to move which will ultimately have evs. I considered an undeniable truth that eventually all vehicles will be electric.
Gene I'm cruising around the Jersey Shore with my vestments scooter. I'm getting like eighty miles to the gollon you and Dan ives. But Dan, tell me about where you think ultimate demand is for electric vehicles, because I feel like we're in a bump in the road kind of moment here.
It's a bump in the road, but our view is that if you get to twenty percent ed penetration, you know, call it over the next four or five years, that changes the game for Tesla and changes the game really for the industry. But you look what's happening in Detroit with the Big three. They're definitely starting to hedge that strategy in terms of especially when it comes to hybrid, and I think this continues to be a bump in
the road. It's not the end. It's a transitional state in terms of where our view of the industry.
Thank you guys for lighting this up. This has been great, Gene Monster. I didn't know you guys are in speaking terms.
It's great. Yeah. I think he is greatly appreciate.
Gene Monster. From Minneapolis. Well, Dan Ives, thanks for coming. I'm looking at Aviator Nation and they don't make my size.
Oh no, they can make a spec and a special bow tie for you, I mean a Nation bow time. Look that could change and next thing, you know that those sales would just go off the ravee keen star wearing av.
Do Nation bowt tag. What do you think I finish?
But Tim, you're what we call back the day.
You're a big fella. You're not.
I don't know if they they got that for you. I mean, Tim's like a hockey player from Rochester.
You know, it's like they make them big up there day nights. What are you doing for the holidays? I mean we're in Singapore.
Look, the holidays is all about college football playoffs. It's about again, it's what we got punched in the mouth versus Oregon, came back, got checked now SMU. Next week when that going to uh, you know, to Phoenix and then we'll see what happens there.
Thank you so much, greatly, greatly, I appreciate it.
You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Otto with a Bloomberg Business app, or watch us live on YouTube.
I'm watching the litmus paper of the system with Ibraham mcbari, and that is the foreign exchange market. There's so much signal there that pros are looking at.
So we're going to get away from Dan.
E's and Gene Monster in the next hour and right now with us some Fordham Global Insight, Ibrah and mcbari a knic with Villain Bauder at City Group a number.
Of years ago. Ibrahim, thank you so much for joining.
Is mister Trump's worst post inauguration nightmare, A new stronger dollar with d x y breaking ever higher.
It's great to be with you once more, and on my take would be more than a strong dollar, more than anything else, reflects the strength and maybe even the exceptionalism of the US economy and actually has the side effect of maybe helping him over the inflation concerns. So if you look back at the election, nobody really voted against a strong dollar, voted against time inflation.
So as much as president like Trump likes.
To occasionally mention the dollar, I really think it's central in his site.
Okay, so it's not central then what is within the foreign exchange in the geopolitical space? Is it?
What we see in France this morning is a Germany flat on their back. What's the top item for Ibrahim Robari into twenty twenty five.
Well, in fact, you put the nail on the head there.
I do think for the foreign exchange market at large, Trump is still number one, and he's been obviously very highly publicized in the preponderance of the.
US driving foreign exchange.
But even in Trump's first term and in twenty twenty two, when the dollar did out the form, it did so against the backdrop of weaker rest of the world grows.
And the way that I look.
At the foreign exchange market right now is I think the market is right in.
Seeing that exceptionalism go a little bit further.
And sitting here in Germany today, looking at at an election at the end of February, and I think it's almost certainly going to get worse before it can get better, and that means we will see yet further declines in.
The euro dollar.
More broadly, a further weakening in the euro against the other major currency.
Is parody in play here for the euro. I'm asking for a friend of mine who's making reservations to Paris as we speak.
Yes, I think for investors there's always it's always very uncomfortable to be chasing a pre existing and pretty long running trend, and every evaluation Mottel will tell you the euro.
Is pretty cheap.
But in fact, parody would be my expectation in the first half of twenty twenty five.
Maybe in the first quarter.
Oh come on, can we get Europe parody? I'm thinking.
At three PM.
I mean, I certainly wouldn't rule it out historically.
Historically, but you're actually strengthened into the end of the in December, and that there's a basic logic to it, which is into the end of the year and at the very beginning of the year people like to buy cheap things, right, and so the cheaper currency than there's.
A corporate element.
So I wouldn't necessarily get hung up on further weakness between now and the end of the year.
But I think there is still more weakness for Europe.
Ibrim, what do you expect. We've seen, you know, the ECB cut rates yesterday. Pretty much central banks across the globe, maybe the exception of the Bank of Japan or cutting rates, what do you expect that US Federal reserved to do next week?
So I think the FED is actually in a very unusual spot competitor a lot of the other central because if you look at the Eurozone, Canada, Sweden, and in particular the economies that are really weakening fast, whereas for the FED, if you took a survey and maybe accepting your your brilliant polygona won't But most analysts at this point expect the FED to cut next week.
But don't you think that they should be cutting? So what that implies at the end is you're almost certainly going to get a hawkish cut. So if that will cut, and then it will say, well, you know, we have some.
Projections that will tell you we continue to cut at a different pace than we have done so far, but in practice we're probably going to adopt much.
More of a wait and see approach.
And again, I think that reflects a very different economic trajectory between the US and many of the other T ten economies, and even for Japan it's actually somewhere in the middle.
Clearly the interistrate trajectory upwards, but the.
Economy has much more of a mix of developments where the US has been pretty consistently strong and we and I continue to see that happening into the beginning of next year.
At least a Hawkish Cup next week to be on the carg.
Yeah, Ebram, I've got to do an audible here. Damien Sasaur is out in Scottsdale. I think he's in the bad little nine today the Scottsdale National Golf Club.
It's really really highly ranked. It's nine holes, it's not eighteen holes.
But that's plenty for It's plenty for dam So I gotta go Latin America and Ibram casas hours down around.
I'm looking at Brazilian real out to six.
Is it because mister Lula is so ill or is that something that can be opportunistic for our listeners in global Wall Street?
So, I do think Brazil is a very interesting case where in a global perspective and even maybe relative to its prominent neighbor Argentina's and the opposites of investor sentiment.
So Argentina recently have been a dialing in Brazil suffering from a combination of factors, but they definitely include that there was a sense that the central Bank was a little too casual about inflation risks, so I personally do think that we will end up seeing the Brazilian reel on a total return basis outperform in twenty twenty five. But picking the bottom, of course, in these very volatile
currencies can be very treacherous. But nevertheless I would be on the positive side of Brazilian rail returns in twenty twenty five, and again it's an interesting contrast to the prevailing sentiment.
Abram, thank you so much.
If you and Tina Fordham are in New York together, we would be honored to have both you Tina Fordham into the studio with his sister Robari with Tina Fordham at Fordham Global Insights.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa. Playing Bloomberg eleven.
Thirty Coffee is a moonshot.
The summer is Brazil and Vietnam challenges, but it's always more nuanced than that. She's truly experted this out of reading and lc ConA Haik is absolutely iconic on what are called the softs away from oil. Maybe a little bit of metal is thrown in there, but it's mostly about the agricultural research she did at Reading University and bringing that over worldwide at Ed and f Man Conna, thank you so much for joining. I mean, I got Ed and f Man doing the touchy feely coffee of
vulcaf making coffee business better. Together, We're going to be green. We're going to go out and help the farmers. Is that all pushed aside by the crisis of coffee?
Is the pricing so.
Egregious that the normal business of coffee is shifted?
Oh?
I think we're in an extreme part of the cycle. At the end of the day, all commodities are very cyclical agricultural markets obviously because of the weather cycles. But within the agricultural space, I would argue that the soft commodities, which are basically just grown in the tropical countries, have more heightens and more extreme cycles. And arguably, as we moved towards more climate change impacted scenarios, those cycles are
going to be more extreme. So what we're seeing is you, as you mentioned, unprecedented droughts in Brazil, severe droughts in Vietnam. These two countries are the biggest producers and exporters off coffee, you know one number one Arabic exporter, Number two Robust exporter, you know, So they are massive. And when you have two producers seeing droughts leading to drops in yields, inevitably you see a supply contraction. The supply the one fundamentals
to go out of whack. Prices, SPI cup stock start falling, and you get the situation we're in today. So yes, it's extreme, but not on and we've reached record highs in terms of the Arabic advice, but it's not unprecedented. These are the cycles we.
Have to live with.
I don't know. I don't like living with this. I got coffee on my screen here up seventy one percent year to date, my double short mocha at Strawbucks Route thirty five in Wall Township, New Jersey, five dollars and eighty three cents. It was like three dollars and fifty cents a year ago. I don't know what's going on, so connor is there any Is there any solution if I'm a coffee farmer. You know, is there any solution there technologically that can even out some of these swings here in the climate.
No, it's not that easy. And maybe what today's high prices are doing is exactly telling you that that, you know, we're going to have to invent invest in more science to adapt to extreme weather scenarios and so the yields can still continue to be future proof. Maybe that's what the price are telling us. But in the short term, it's tricky because because they're tree crops, they don't not row crops like corn or wheat, which grow every year. You know, as soon as the price goes up, farmers
good and plant a lot. In the case of coffee, it takes three to four years to grow from a tree from from seeding level to become full fruiting and so and then you know, as long as weather is good, it'll take some time to improve. And on the on the demand side, demand is pretty sticky. It's inelastic. You know, people find a small luxury that they don't need to sacrifice,
they don't need to forego. What we have started to see is consumption from outdoors, like you know, in the outdoor coffee shops are slowly transferring into at home consumption because it's cheaper at home, and within the at home consumption, we're seeing downgrades to low quality maybe own brands, private labels. People are doing what you can.
Yeah, ConA USDA was out with the summary in Vietnam and they say just in the last three days that they're seeing more planting. Farmers are motivated because of high coffee prices to plant more trees. Is the coffee equivalent what I use in my speeches from a knopsony, which is a rubber plantation in Singapore, is in Brazil and in Vietnam. Coffee where all the powers in the hands of the big companies, the shippers, the regional business people, and not in the power of the farmer farmers.
Will sell to the traders, the middlemen. The traders then sell to the roasters, and some of them are small roases. Some of the big roasts of the big rotors are the likes of Nesle, Starbucks, JD Pete. So no would in depending where you are, Yes, maybe in the USA, a lot of the final coffee that we consume is in the hands of some big multi multi organizations and
international corporations. But in different countries. You have small roasters as well, so different medium sizes as well, and now increasingly where you're seeing more and more independent roasters popping up. There's there's a real trend for that.
Connor, what's the outlook for coffee here? I mean, I guess it's an agricultural question, but what are the what are the growers telling you about the next year, two years and what their expectations are.
So prices are definitely high, so the incentive, as you mentioned, are very strong. If weather complies, then you know they will look after their crop next year. But when we did our crop toos, because even f Man we do our crop tos, and what we saw was that the rains, the lack of rains in Brazil this in during our summer, had a very bad impact on the blossom set. So the blossoms look good, but those blossoms and flowers didn't convert into actual buds and cherrits. So that's why we
didn't see a crop. And that's where that's the plomer we're facing and a lot of farmerstis thought, this is not great. We're going to have to complaise stump our trees. So it's it's we'll see recovery for sure in twenty twenty six, but not in the short term.
Conor.
One final question Lisa emails in It says as ConA, if a peppermint mocha preppuccino blended beverage, it's Starbucks.
Is it gonna top? Take ten dollars? Here? Conor, we hadn't for a ten dollars Starbucks?
But how much does it cost today?
Eight dollars? So says Lisa Daily with profanity wrapped around.
Me, because one of you asked what are the solutions to this supply demand tightness? One of the solutions is that consumption has to fall, and for consumption to fall, these roses are going to have to pass on the higher cost to the retailers. And ultimately, yes, if higher costs leads to people thinking ten dollars is too much, let's give it up, then that's what we need to happen.
Conorhick, thank you so much. Honored with ed n f Man.
I can't say enough about their volt Cafe project, research project and support of farmers amid this crisis.
As well as crop tours like.
She's trying to make the flowers and the buds and like you know, Darshaling tea and you know can or Tall or.
Whatever these Here's the Bloomberg Surveillance Pine. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.
The day you look at the front pages. Lisa Matteo hour, what's it like to be mentioned on the Costco conference call? That was pretty cool? Passion that.
Ah, yes, those Costco earnings this morning. All right, We've got so much to get through for today, and I'm glad it's back up to an hour from a minute and a moment. So here we go. We're starting off with the battle between human and robot ride hailing drivers at airports. We're talking about Waimo one. Okay, they're owned by Alphabet. They already offer airport trips in Phoenix, they're waiting approval, yeah, and other markets. I don't know if I would take one. I'm still on the fence about it.
But if it's robotaxis, continue expanding experts and telling business inside or here's the thing. Human ride hailing drivers they could see their incomes take a big hit as these robots start to come in. They're some of the most profitable trips for them, right, they often have higher, fair strong customer demand. That's the reason why. And the Uber and Lyft drivers are telling them that their gigs all already less.
If the robot thing gets through the traffic, it's got to make that turn off the bridge onto the FDR.
It's got to make the turn.
It's like it's like Junior Helix over on the Upper east Side.
I mean, I got I just I got in the car this morning with some dude I've never seen before in my life at four thirty in the warning. What's the difference in getting in with a robot car. I don't know.
It's a human.
I don't know.
I don't know.
I don't know the human. Oh God.
Okay, So Tokyo planning a four day work or city employees, Okay, they want to reverse their low birth rate. That's the whole reason.
So if I'm working less, I'm pro creating more.
No, that's good. That's a good way to think about it. But they're saying it'll make the work life balance better so that they'll have you know, more time to take care of the children. So that's the whole reason behind you. Because they're on track sixteenth consecutive year of decline for their population. So again, this is city employees. This is for April of twenty twenty five. But the way it
works it lets them adjust. They're working hours to free up one day, so they need to choose what day that.
After thoughts trying to get me to go to a six day work week, sixth times, where we are? You know I tried to get it empty the dishwasher last night, done in flames.
Pluck with that, I have the same fight.
All right.
This story I am very concerned about.
Did you notice when you went to Okay, well this is British pubs. Okay, British pubs running out of Guinness. Okay, huge story. This is the New York Times. Apparently the parent company Diagio. They've limited the amount of beer that the UK wholesalers distributors can buy each week because of the surging demand, because they're fearing this shortage coming up.
The reason they're fearing a shortage is because Guinness was once this old timer's beer, right, but it's become popular with gen Z. Those are those drinkers up to twenty seven, you know, from drinking age to twenty seven. It's been this marketing push they've been pushing there. They've had celebrity endorsements.
But there's also this viral drinking challenge. Okay, it's called split the G. I don't really understand it, but it means that you drink enough in one chug to leave the foam with the first letter of the branding pine Glass. Apparently this is this challenge going.
On all right.
I was just at the Dublin brewery for Guinness back in September. There's like three dudes. They're making the whole stuff. It's it's not that big, and they it's amazing with the stuff they put out there. I mean it's it's just an incredible trip. If you're ever in Dublin, check out the Guinness Brewery. But I guess the kids are drinking it.
Now. What's it called? The split split.
The G split the G, Yes, the Guinness the.
Gee something every day.
Yeah, I'm telling you wealth of knowledge here. Okay, the last one. Oh, this is the bane of my existence. Okay, this is the cookie chain that teen girls are helping power to one billion dollars in we're talking, Oh, Paul Sweeney, Crumble, it's those five dollars seven hundred calorie cookies that are huge.
Where do you get them?
You can get them in the store, but my door dash bill has just been getting from these things. So similar to Guinness, they're using the power of like social media and bi these TikTok challenges and things. So TikTok YouTube, Instagram. It has a thirty plus person social media team. Okay, nine point six million TikTok followers. If you compare that, you say, how much is that Starbucks only has two
point two billion million? Okay? So they do this thing weekly menu changes, so instead of having the same cookies each week, they highlight a new cookie, so it keeps the interest going.
The social people. They misspelled it.
But other than yeah, exactly see rw nbl.
Asperry buttercake cookie. It's a mouth watering buttercake cookie.
Oh gets this down at the bottom and says, except all cookies, I love that cute Okay.
Crumble, like have you Beenley's I've I've, I have been, and I have seen it arrive at my doorstep. Plenty of tially, Yes, it's the teen girls. They're all about this. They're posting reviews and then Crumble repost the views those reviews, so then they think they're like, hey, I'm famous now. So it's fueling this whole thing with the girls. I'm telling you. But the way this company started, I mean twenty seventeen, it was a single store in Logan, Utah, and it just kind of blew up.
It's out of Logan, Utah. Wow. How social media team?
Thirty plus person social media? So you got to work on ours.
I hope Sparta's listening. Say it one more time for Sparta. How big is there social media?
To me?
Plus?
How many is ours?
We got two and one of them is in here because they went to a party last night, so.
We're crumble all right, crumble, way to check it out.
Like you know, we can go today and I can have a story.
We can door dash it right here.
I got the.
Yeah, yeah, the semi sweet chocolate chunk.
How much is that?
I don't tell you the next to it?
I mean Lisa Mateo.
Thank you for Lisa Mateo, our and our newspapers.
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