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An extended conversation with Edward Yard Denny. He's your Denny Research definitive CJ. Lawrence a few years ago a long tour of duty of must read at Prudential Bish Securities and has been one of the true bowls of his roaring twenties. Edgar Denny, How roaring are our roaring twenties?
Well, I think things are looking better ever since April ninth, which was the postponement of the so called Liberation Day, and then of course on May twelfth there was another postponement of the tariffs on China, and so the stock markets had a v shaped recovery since then, and the stock markets had a kind of a roaring twenty correction followed by an amazing recovery.
Let me translate the modesty you just heard their folks. Edgiar Denny defined bond equity currency commodity vigilantes. Edgar Denny.
The vigilantes spoke, didn't they absolutely. It was on April eighth, the day before the postponement of the tariffs, so that the bond yield basically went up from four percent to four and a half percent. That got the attention to the administration. Freaked them out, actually, and even the President technology verbally said that, you know that the bond market's reaction to his policies him to postpone the tariffs. He
subsequently denied that, but he said it. And it's pretty clear that he had sort of a Bill Clinton moment back in the early nineteen nineties. James Carvill and Robert Rubin warrened Clinton that he had to have fiscal discipline otherwise the bond market would come and get him. And that's exactly what happened to Donald Trump on April eighth, and then he reversed his policy or postponed his policy on April ninth.
And we still have even though some of these terroriffsmen rolled back, we still have teriffts that are well in excess of kind of where we started the year here. How does that impact economic growth inflation? How do you kind of factor that in these days?
Well, first and foremost, I've been observing and predicting a continuation of the economy's resilience. It's been over the past three years. We had the most widely anticipated recession of all times that never happened. It was the good Doe recession and the no show recession. And now we and that was in expectations that the Titaningo monetary policy would cause a recession.
We argued that that might not be the case.
And now, of course the whole tariff turmoil has got people thinking that we're going to have a recession. But those recession odds have been coming down, at least in the part of the consensus, and that's because Donald Trump. President Donald Trump has blinked several times on the terriff issue. But as you said, it's still there. It's just not as onerous as it was when it was initially announced.
But it doesn't mean that we're probably going to have about of stagflation for a few months where the economy looks somewhat weaker in the summer with more inflation.
So ed given that background, how do you think about this whole allocation stocks, bonds, alternatives kind of where do you see the best opportunity these days.
Well, you know, I've been bullish on this market since the November of twenty twenty two, so we did call the bottom in October, and it's hard to tell people to jump on board of this speeding train right now. I would just stay invested in the stock market, and I continue to recommend avoiding information technology, communications industrials and financials. So I would stay with the stock market for sure.
The ambiguity here, I think is absolutely profound. And the basic idea here is we have a global lifting yields. Whether I look at UK gilts, I look at the real uncertainties in Japan in that and what's so hard in the modern media is to understand the zeitgeist is higher yields are bad.
Push against that, Well, higher yields should be, but they haven't been bad. We have seen a global bull market in stocks, even though we've seen bond yields increase. Now my view is that to a large extent, bondieals of normalized, they're back to where they should be. Twenty half percent is the right bond yield for the US economy. That was the case before the Great Financial Crisis, and I
think it's the case against Now. You know, maybe we're getting some excesses in the UK, some excesses in Japan. But you know, if you want to be US centric, which to be, I think these bondials are kind of normal. But I do see a risk that there could be a mini debt crisis the way there was in twenty twenty three. In some ways, Tom, I hope there is, because I think now's a good time for a debt crisis to get the attention of the politicians in Washington, that they got to get their act together.
As you'r Denny with us your DNNY research. We welcome all of you in your commute across a nation. Good morning, Bloomberg eleven three to zero in our global Wall Street. Good morning, I should say, good afternoon in England and the city and in Paris as well. Thank you so much for tuning in on all of our audio products and of course on YouTube. Subscribe to Bloomberg podcast ed Your Denny's Dog in the Couch.
The Research is Subscribe to Bloomberg Max, Max you got I got a note for Max.
Say the dog the dog looks stressed ed. I mean, I mean if I look at the dog, I mean the tension in the market's really really affecting Max.
Right, Max really keeps me calm, He keeps me grounded. Sometimes he puts me to sleep, but.
Says that about me too exactly.
Hey, you mentioned that a debt crisis. I mean, I've been in this market since the mid eighties. We've been talking about deficits in the national debt and it just doesn't match. Is really important. Yeah, can you give us some context there?
Yeah?
Absolutely.
Back in July of nineteen eighty three is when I concocted the term bond vigilantes. And I went back and read what I wrote, and I said, the bond vigilantes are particularly upset about record two hundred billion dollar deficits.
And here we're looking.
At two trillion dollar deficits and talking about the bond vigilantes once again. Behind me, I have a bookshelf, and on the top shelf, I've got a bunch of books from the nineteen eighties. You know, debt bomb, you know, drowning in debt, all kinds of end of the world kind of scenarios with debt. And here we are and
stock market basically at an all time high. So the end of the world hasn't occurred yet, and you have some very smart people like Ray Dallio basically arguing that it's imminent that we're going to have a crisis, that we might have a buyer strike.
Well, this is important. I'm taking Paul's territory here, but it's just too important. When people give you the doom and gloom, isn't that the time where you acquire shares? That's what John Templeton would say.
Absolutely, It's yeah, it's when your your gut hurts and you just want to get out. Tom, I have to brag I have a really good track record at calling bottoms more so than tops. And that's because I have a relative that I don't speak to it too often that always calls me at bottoms and said, Eddie, should I get out? All of a sudden, we're best friends, you know, so uh yeah, it's uh, it's it's when you're your your uncle Max calls you up and says, you know, I know you follow the stock market?
Should you get out? That makes the bottom ed?
What do you make in the where investors should be positioned in the fixed income market here? Because you considered a two year treasury, you make on your four percent, or do you go out there and take some credit risk.
Well, you know, it's it's kind of weird, right. Credit risk used to be high yield bonds, corporate bonds. Now suddenly we're all worrying about the thirty year treasury in Japan, the thirty year treasury in the United States.
So I.
Would stay I always stay short for now, but I think there could be a really great opportunity to jump back into the bond market. You know, the ten year could revisit born three quarters five percent here pretty shortly. If the bond agilantes are not pleased with what they see coming out of Washington and that, you know, if their view is the big beautiful bill is actually the big ugly bill, we'll know that pretty quickly.
And one of the new areas that's been just seeing amazing growth on global Wall Street in the last I don't know fifteen years or so, has been private credit. How do you think about that when you talk to your clients.
Well, I don't know. I like securities.
I like to buy securities where there's a liquid market and I can get in and out and I know what these things are worth. I really don't have a problem with private credit, but I wouldn't overdo it there. I get a little suspicious when I see that the private credit industry is starting to become very democratic and create ETFs that allow them basically to unload the back stuff into ETFs.
So I think they've had a good record, but I'd be careful.
And just one final question here, and I think it's really really important for her. There's Center Force five hundred. How does Edgyard Denny find a select group of stocks within the standard imports five hundred to believe in? Is your method like free cash flow? Is it more economic based almost a Shiller analysis? How do you go about choosing the security for the long run?
Well, first and foremost, we don't pick individual stocks on our forte so we basically tend to provide an opinion whether we think the stock market's going to continue to go up and which sectors within that are likely to per form. So I think the short answer is yes, based on the economic outlook. I started out on Wall Street as the chief economist of E. F. Hutton, and then in a few years later I became also the strategist at CJ. Lawrence, So sort of combining the two
disciplines that guide my work on sectors and industries. You know, we've liked information technology, we've liked as semiiconductors, and they've been one heck of a roller coaster ride, but basically it's been improfitable.
What's your SPX call here a year end or even out twelve months.
Well, you know, I've been doing a lot of work on that, and i just want everybody to know that the DXY Dollar Index is very misleading index. It's a fixed weight index, it's not a trade weighted dollar, and fifty seven percent of it is the euro, So you might as well just look at the Euro dollar exchange rate when you're looking at DXY. I like the MSCI organization actually puts out a daily trade dollar which is identical, almost identical to what the Fed does. And to me,
the dollar remains at an upward trend. To me, the dollars going sideways relative to develop develop the currencies. But in terms of emerging the dollar is very strong. So I'm not in this. You know, you know, end of the world scenario for the dollar.
Well, give me the sand first five hundred. Are you out to seven thousand? Still? If you reaffirm that off of all the tariff news.
Well, I started out the year at seven thousand, and I think strategists were generally kind of near that kind of level. Maybe I was at the high end and Trump got me. So I did lower it to sixty four hundred in our early March, and then in late March I lowered it to six thousand.
We are I going to make some news today. I can you give me seven thousand here you're on a sleepy May morning.
Well, I'll give you sixty five hundred, which is what I've raised it to, with the possibility of getting back up to to seven thousand, and I've told people I reserved the right to change my mind as often as the president.
Max just rolled over when he heard that. Think we said good morning to Max on the couch. For those of you on Bloomberg, till the dog is come casual here on a May morning. Ed your Denny thank you so much with your Denny Research. Again, we protect the copyright of all of our guests research. Go to your Denny Research. It's a terrific value. Can't say enough about the use of it. Off your cell.
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Joining US now from Europe alder schmediaan of course with Barren bergerg wonderful to have you in our studio. Thank you. Is Brexit dead? Let's just start with that headline.
No, Unfortunately, Brexit is not dead. Brexit is there to stay. We, however, are getting a little pain relief now with the UK drawing it a little closer on a few issues to the EU. Again, Brexit has been really bad for the UK economy and now the day it will be slightly slightly mitigated.
Do we underestimate growth in the continent and in the United Kingdom? I keep seeing Paul six months later. Oops, yep, and up we go.
I mean, all in all, a relative to the circumstances which are globally not all that good to put in, the Europe is indeed holding up. What we continue to overlook occasionally is that especially southern Europe is mostly not all of it, but mostly doing well, reaping the rewards of the harsh reforms after the Euro crisis, and that in the UK already with Rishi Sunak and then Kiel Stamer starting to reset relations with the EU, there is also a bit of a dynamic in the UK.
Is the EU at all receptive to I don't know some of the UK's overtures here. If I'm the EU, I'm like, now, you guys already voted well.
On the pragmatic level, the EU wants to strike the and it is striking deeds. Of course, this is the EU, the big EU relative to the smaller UK, which is about one six of the size of the EU economy. And as a result, the EU does not allow cherry picking. That is for the UK to simply say, this is the part we love, this is the part we don't like about the EU. We want to have only the cherries.
But we do see pragmatic progress and in the age of Putine and also in the age of Trump, we know I have to say there is a clear Russia now for the UK and the EU to work together on the military but also easing some of the economic pains from Brexit for the UK.
So we saw the plans coming out of Germany, you know, several months ago about reinvesting in their defense, in their infrastructure. That's fine for Germany. Can the rest of Europe do that?
The rest of Europe does not have the physical space for that. But look at a map. Germany is much closer to Russia, to US Ukraine than most of the rest of Europe, as is Poland. As is Poland has a independently order. He raised its defense spending a lot, so have the Baltics. Germany was in a way the big missing country, the country with fiscal space not doing enough yet, and it's now clothing the gap.
So is that suggests that the European accountry, like we saw a lot of investors in the first part of this year move money out of the US into Europe in stocks and bonds and currencies. Is that something you think is credible and is longer lasting?
Do you think, well, there was a bit of europhoia, yeah, late February, early March, and that has passed. But that was just a little overdone. The underlying another of this is correct with Germany getting its act sort of together, not never fully, but sort of together. With Germany using its fiscal space to improve its growth prospects via infrastructure, and with Germany doing more to defend itself and basically also the rest of Europe against Putine. Europe is a
more attractive place. And then you have the US problems. You have Trump that, you have tariffs, you have the distrust in US institutions, and as a result, the US looks less and Europe looks a bit more attract I don't.
Care about the economics. Do you see a boom year for tourism in Europe?
There's so much a word, but yes, this is one of part of the European economy which looks set to grow quite nice. It's like a big part, right, It's a significant part for Southern Europe especially, And indeed tourism looks good. Industry, of course, and a few services are still under the cloud of the Trump trade wars, but tourism is good. Welcome to Europe, I tell you it's a great place, as of course, I really.
And I looked at the obligatory flight I called fifty seven fifty six, which is United out of Newark, just happens to be the flight I look at, and they're giving it away, pat are they ready? Three thousand and four dollars Holger Schmeeting Class.
And you're going, yeah, you're not.
We're not the It's like new low I mean, but I.
Mean, Holger, We've got the Euro at one spot one two here. We're not a parody for the Euro. How high I mean? Is that reflective of the expectations for Europe in general?
The Euro is still a bit undervalued if I compare it under If I compare what I say here in New York for my hotel and for my t relative to what I will pay in a major European capital, and if I compare many other prices, the euro is still modestly undervalued. We will likely go towards one twenty next year problem, and then we'll have to see if the US gets his fiscal housing order or not. If the US does not, five years from now, we might be at one fifty.
A million years ago, the trade minister of France, her name was Le Guard, called me up and said you got to go to some meeting in New York and it was an innovation in technology. They were setting up a satellite out of CDG and in Paris. Okay, every article is Europe's missed the boat in technology, Halger, How do the leaders of europe initial initiate catching up in technology.
We will catch up in using the new technologies we've always been good at that. The Internet wasn't quite invented in Europe, but the Internet of Things, yeah, this is where Europe is very strong. The same will likely happen with artificial intelligence. Unfortunately, partly because we don't have the capital market and the institution to scale up the many startups we have as rapidly as it happens in the US, we will not have the really, really big, immediate pioneer
companies on artificial intelligence. But when it comes to using our highly qualified workforce YEAP to turn artificial intelligence into something that's good for all of us, then European companies will be there.
This has been wonderful, holdersating, Thank you so much for Fairenberg.
This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.
Angela Stent was my book of the Year. I made my book of the Year a couple of years ago on a February, I think Thursday. Her book is Putin's World. It is the single one biography on the makeup of Vladimir Putin. We're honored that Angela Stent could join us this morning. Angela, Chapter three of your book, Ambivalent Europeans. Is Vladimir Putin an ambivalent European?
I think Vladimir Putin is by now a convinced Eurasianist, even though he speaks Germany. He lived in East Germany for five years. I think if you listen to what the Russian talk shows are saying, and what even Putin himself is saying, they're highly critical of the Europeans because they are now in a situation where the Trump administration has been able to accomplish what neither the Soviet Union or post Soviet Russia was able to do, and that's to split work from the US.
Is President Trump helping or is he in the way of a constructive outcome?
So I don't think he's helping at the moment, because you know, having gotten the Ukrainians and the Europeans to say, yes, we have to have a thirty day interim ceasefire before we can really negotiate. Pudin has refused to do this. Apparently in the phone call yesterday they didn't even discuss a ceasefire in two and a half hours. So that's really not helping get us anywhere nearer to stopping the killing and talking constructively about what comes afterwards.
In reality, Angela, I think just by looking at history of the last one hundred years, Russia is not going anywhere. They can keep at this for as long as anybody ken is there any leverage anybody has over Russia.
So you know, there is a big package of sanctions that's been prepared by bipartisan by the US Congress, Republicans and Democrats. The Treasury Department has a sanctions packet ready to go. Scott bestn't put it on President Trump's desk, But nothing's happening. They're not imposing any sanctions, and that's what Putin really wanted to avoid. And the other thing that could be done would be to give Ukraine more arms to help it push back more because nobody thinks
there's going to be another sup supplemental coming forward. So the only other leverage there is, of course oil prices and sixty dollars or above oil prices is what keeps the Russian economy going in the budget doing well. If oil prices remain low, certainly in the forties or even the early fifties by next year, that will have a fairly serious impact in Russia.
Aside from President Trump, is there anyone in Congress who feels like something needs to be done? Or is this squarely on the President's desk at the moment?
I mean, Senator Graham has been one of the supporters of the sanctions bill. There are a number of both Republican and Democratic Congress people who think that we should be imposing more sanctions. But every time there's talk of it, it doesn't happen.
I mean, I got as an amount of time, but I've got there's so many important questions. Let me go to the Kremlin. How alone is Vladimir Putin? Is he's calling every shot? I guess we assume that from your wonderful book. But is there an after Putin? Is there a process in Russia with Putin or after Putin?
So we have no idea about that, but it doesn't look as if there is. Because every time you have an up and coming younger person who maybe be a successor they're not. So what Putin has the backing of Jusionping. That's probably the single most important thing.
Very quickly here, Professor stentt just as simple as I can do, you believe in the domino theory here.
The domino theory that.
After Ukraine he looks at the Bultic States, after Ukraine he looks at fourteen feet into Finland. I mean, is they're a domino theory here. I do believe in it.
I don't think it would happen immediately, but if Putin wins in Ukraine, then Ukraine is in the last country that Russia's going to attack.
Angels stent thank you so much. I'll tell you, folks, it's a two book tandem on Russia. Stephanie Baker's wonderful book. It's been hugely successful for miss Baker of Bloomberg in London, punishing Putin In. The foundation before that is Angelus Stence Putin's World, Russia against the West. I can't say enough about the book as a one volume read, mesmerizing on the youth and the upbringing of Vladimir.
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Daniel Tannembaum is a global traveler with Oliver Wyman and joins us here. He is world expert on sanctions and so much more. Does a disarray in the domestic issues of America does that diminish our execution of foreign policy? Den I think it does.
I talk to folks in the European Commission and the British government. Often they are emotionally resigned to having the deal and constrain issues like Russia without US involvement. In February, they were reluctant to believe it. I think everyone realizes there's enough issues in the US going on that dealing with Russia offensively is not a high priority. So I do think some of these domestic issues are having an impact, But in a sense he is a unifier, but in
not ways that benefit America. You're seeing trade deals get struck that don't involve the US, like Mercosre in the EU, so it is creating an impact that may not be as beneficial to the US.
In the end, Dan, what do.
You make of the phone call President Trump and President Putin had yesterday regarding Ukraine. There's some different reporting about what actually was achieved. What's your read of that.
I think we kicked the can again. It doesn't sound like any concessions were offered on the part of Russia. You know, the big announcement that the president made that President Trump made after the call was that there will be more talks. Well, what was last week in Istanbul? When they were already talks. I mean, if the whole point is trying to force Russia to reverse course, talks
aren't going to do it. We saw today the UK and EU have announced additional sanctions that are significant, doing it again without the US.
The US has.
Yet to really at least publicly impose sanctions on Russia since this administration has taken office. Again.
Why, I mean, I understand Donald Trump and I don't need to get into the Putin Trump thing. I think we're all hit over the head by that constantly. Okay, war, they invaded a country. Why is Europe? Why are the US struggling with instituting sanctions on a country that's a borderline frontier economy?
I think we should differentiate. It's not the country. I think it's this administration. Congress has sanctions that are ready to roll. There's actually a package that's been on the President's desk for three weeks to impose additional sanctions on Russia. He will sign that will apply additional pressure. How much they'll hinder is a question the why. I mean, the argument that the president is making is that additional sanctions are unhelpful to the negotiations with Russia. And so that
is the argument. Anytime President Putin looks as if he anytime President Putin looks as if he, you know, is playing ball, it pushes off any sort of need for pressure, and the president seems to believe that argument.
Is there any leverage that the US or the Europeans really have against Putin? Kid just feels like if you just look back at history over the last one hundred years, these Russians can have some staying power.
They can, but you can lower the price of the oil price cap, which has been at sixty dollars for the last few years. Oil's trading at what's sixty five a barrel, so you can begin to reduce the revenue that Russia is generating from oil. You can go after more third country actors, but we have yet to really see the US do anything publicly.
I mean I don't have the romantic life of Dan Tanabon. I mean, you know, the Oliver. He doesn't have the Oliver and Women Gulf Stream because Hugh von Steinas has it most of the time. I'm more interested in Dan Tannabon.
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Right now, newspapers. We look at the newspapers, Lisa Matteo and her team of interns looking at twenty thirty rags to see what to do today. What do you got, Lisa?
Okay, I'm starting with the most glamorous sporting event in the world. Low talking about the US. Oh, you know the tennis tournament.
I know is the day to go see see.
Okay, So it generates one hundreds of million dollar every year, right, it's getting this eight hundred million dollars. Makeover scheduled to be completed in time by twenty twenty seven. For that US open construction's already started. So what is actually happening? Okay, so it's including this overhaul of Arthur Arthur sh Stadium, so as Paul knows, sometimes gets a little crowded. You know, it's trying to send as Tito's and soda and he
needs more elbow room. Okay, so they're adding a little bit more space, putting a few more seating in there. They're also getting new building just for the players. So the players get this new building, state of the art training facility, luxury accommodations, cafes just for them. So this has been going on. But the USA, how are they going to pay for this? That's the question that everyone
is asking. Reserve funds, debt and it's not going to require any more land in the park because they're they're leasing that out.
To me, it was when I went, it was way too packed. I mean, it was just no fun. The merch, the merch going out of the store.
Pall was unreal.
It's it's phenomenal, but I mean there's vodka was something that money did get the great Goose Honey Deuce cocktail.
That's what it was. That's where you go.
Yep, And that'll save you back twenty or twenty five bucks. But it's it's worth it. But I go the first Tuesday because then you get ze everybody and everybody's practicing. Nobody's knocked out of the tournam. You can go to a practice court and see, like you know, a top ten person playing in a practice round. It's about it. Yeah, it's the thing park. Yeah, but it's fine.
It's no.
You take the Long Island Railroad drops your right there. It is the take the l people are right to the stadium in two grade and you go to the day on the first Tuesday.
I have to go.
It is a experience.
It is experience.
Literally, is there like live reporting you've never been to the.
Actually have fun? Yeah, okay, let's.
Go to Thursday night football.
Okay.
So in the past it's been like this place like this, dumping around right for games that are expected to not view very well. But things have started changed under Amazon. Bloomberg actually spoke with the head of sports and Advertising at Amazon Prime Video and they said view a Thursday night football increase forty percent. Since Prime Video's first year of streaming the show, so that more people are starting
to watch. The average viewer is also seven years younger than other channels, so that's something.
That advertisers like.
But they also scored their strongest lineup, so they have in week two the opening twenty four five season matchup between Green Bay Packers Washington Commanders. They also have two appearances from the Philadelphia Eagles. They have ten divisional matchups on top of it, so there.
People are getting more comfortable now finding sports on streaming and the answers.
Football is leading the.
Way absolutely, I mean just say it always does, it always does.
I mean, you know why is Mets red socks. I still don't understand the regional baseball thing, you know is.
A regional sport like hockey. Hockey is regional?
Okay, just football, just do it like Cony.
Time for one more here I do okay, quickly?
Okay, So the National Dazoo's new handas right. We've been hearing about them, PANDAM, pandicam. They're actually warming up to one another, so who knows. There could be a baby along the way. But it's going to be timed down. Yes, yes, it's going to be much more time down the road. But they're starting to show some signs of interest to one another. So the zoo staffers are saying, you know what, this is a good sign. They're bleeding. Bleeding is like that,
I guess a mating sound. I don't know. It's kind of like a sheep's bad but a higher pitch. I'm not going to do it for you, but they're starting to show that.
But reproductive possibility is how the Washington post Reproductive possibility only last brief hours.
They're very like they like to be alone pandas. I didn't realize that, so they're very like with the panda. But the males mature more slowly than females. Shocker, five years old is when they start this this connection, and they're a little bit younger than that. So we have some time, but there's a positive sign.
I'm trying to put a ball. Thank you so much much for our sex education today.
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