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The reason Credit Suite was so good, Mark Flaherty and Oil, et cetera, et cetera, was their research was gorgeous, Which is why I hate laur Kelvisina because she sends over one hundred and three page power point read it because I got time to read every single screen.
What do you marry?
Meeker's in disguise, that's the mini pulse, that's the meeting. We cut it down recently. It was getting up to around like one hundred and thirty hundred and forty.
It's just sick. Laurie.
You're too young to remember this, but I remember LIFO FIFO and all the accounting that went into more traditional companies. Does big tech hyperscalers do they have accountable LIFEO fi fo balance sheets.
That I'm not qualified to comment on. Tom, I'm not really sure. But the reality is that we are seeing the nervousness around that top ten cohort for one reason or another. Right, is it cash flow? Are we at a peak in the CAPEC cycle? How much are these technologies being used? Are we overspending? That nervousness you know, tends to rise and people start to pull things, you know, from all over the place when we get to peak valuations.
And that's exactly what we saw last fall, and that's what we're starting to see again, though I would say it's not to the same degree. Give you a couple of examples. I mean, talking to clients earlier this week about you know, sort of the semi sell off that we saw on Friday. The general vibe I was getting was, Yeah, this stuff feels like it's been a little bit ahead of itself, but we still like these stories longer term.
And if I go back to a month ago when I was in Europe, I was talking to a lot of clients in London and Zurich, I would say, in particular, where they're like, we've been in the semis, we've been on the AI theme.
Is there anything else we.
Should be looking at? We want to explore other opportunities. You could sense that impulse to diversify, But at the same time, when we would go through and look at all the other sectors, the picking seemed pretty slim, and I've picked up on that same vibe this week as well.
Small mid caps. The Russell outperforming here today. What do you make of that?
So if you look at.
Russell, it's been outperforming since last fall, but it's been very, very choppy. It's been sort of jagged, you know, with big swings up and down, and one thing that seems to trip small caps up. You know, the fundamentals are fantastic right now in terms of jobs growth, three accelerating ism is above fifty for several months in a row. The animal spirits feel like they're coming back to the economy.
But at the same time, interest rates and when you bake in hikes from the Fed or dial down your dubbishness since twenty twenty two, that's been a surefire way to trip up the small cap trade. So we've been a little bit less enthusiastic here of.
Lake a little more time with Lori Kelvicina Ira Jersey coming up. Jeff given as well. The tape does better. Negative seventy was a negative fifty now negative thirty seven.
And the SMB futures.
The Vics twenty handle twenty point ninety seven is better from twenty two to twenty one into a better twenty point ninety seven. Even oil comes in off the back and forth tweets, if you will, and newsfall from Iran to sixteen hundred Pennsylvania Avenue. In the yield space, thirty year bond five oh two becomes a five oh one. I'm running it out to four decimal points because that's the way we roll as well. Ten yere yield four
point five two percent. Discuss companies make profit versus the nonprofit companies.
This is a complicated issue. I mean, it's one that comes up quite a bit in smallcalf. We're seeing, you know, kind of low earnings quality stocks out performed similar to what we saw last year off the April eighth low. That's something that tends to happen off recession typelows. But we're also starting to see that show up in the S and P five hundred as well. You Know, what I would say is, especially when you get into small cap, there's a question of our loss makers really low quality.
A lot of biotech stocks, for example, early stage technology companies. You know, I have seen frankly, in the small cap space, people are getting a little bit more comfortable with biotech, which is not something I would have heard five and ten years ago. And those are technically, you know, like quote unquote low quality because of the earnings component, but not really so I do think small caps, you know, I'm starting to increasingly think they're getting us a bad rap on the quality issue.
Laurie, thanks so much for coming in the new slow is crazy. I don't know how you do it. I don't know anybody in that.
I don't sleep.
Yeah, we don't sleep.
Literally, that's about five hours a night and it's one hour here, three hours there kind of thing. And then on the weekend and we take eight naps.
I had an hour and forty nine minute nap on Sunday afternoon.
Yes, heaven. Yeah, you gag the children.
Their grandparents.
I thank you, Lloyd Kelvicina, thank you so much. Of course, always and forever with RBC. We're gonna get Tira Jersey here in a moment. We got to have an extended time with him not only on what he sees off this CPI report, but also is work on the World Cup again. As I noticed on stub ub tickets issued. Tickets released today for so many games at this World Cup is like a huge deal. When was the last time we talked about the Nis Alexis?
Oh a few minutes. It's been way too Our ticket price has gone up since then. Yeah.
Jeff Gibbon joins how to develop market fixed income at Manual Life Investor. Thank you for coming today and just a crazy day. How do you synthesize a higher CPI? And this angst about what about core a Manual Life? How do you fold that into the bond story? Yeah?
I mean one thing to look at is, you know, how temporary is this going to be?
And you know, one of the.
Dangers that we're in right now I was we're having all these one off shocks and we try to push it away and say it's one off, it's one off. At what point in time does it become not one off? You know, we're not trying to play too too much into the recent run up in CPI as it is more energy related and if we start to get oil flowing through the straight again, maybe that comes off a
little bit. However, if we stay up here another three, four, five months, then we're gonna have to you know, really consider what the FED has to do to slow this economy down.
We've got it seems like the bomb market's doing the Fed's work. Here, We've got rates moving higher. Here, I'm looking at the ten year four fifty two year. What do you think we end the year on a tenure exactly?
You know, I do think we ended a ten year around the four to fifty ish level. It's really hard for me to see the tenure coming down a whole lot. It's hard to see getting back into pricing in FED cuts like we were at the end of February. You know,
there is a risk it goes a bit higher. However, if we get to the point that we have to price in the bed saying we're going to need to crush inflation, I think that ends up being curved, flattener, and maybe an inverted curve, because you know, I don't think they're going to have to go gradually just to you know, make themselves feel better.
So again, we got this inflation print today in line with expectations, but it's higher, I mean, and how much of that is just energy? I mean, I'm looking at the core that's higher too, But I mean, I don't know.
Yeah, I mean, I think it's not just energy story. Right, We're starting to see a bit stronger inflation back even in January and February when you look at some of the subcomponents, and so there's other things going on now that what we don't know is, you know, energy prices usually have a six to twelve month lag on the economy, and does that put the consumer at risk when he hit October this year?
What is a five thirty year bond signal? I mean, and again after this inflation report, looking at really yields, some of the hourly real yield statistics were negative. I mean, what is the how does your day to day grine ensure with a five percent thirty year?
Yeah, I mean, I you know, I worry a little bit more about the tenure. If the tenure got up to five percent, I'd be very concerned. As far as where we're going a big move. I would take a look at which mortgage rates. He's seeing housing prices across the across the US slowing and you know in some areas podcat is turning negative, and if you added another fifty basis points to mortgage rates, I mean, I think
that's a problem. For the overall economy and in addition to having higher energy prices at the same time.
How much credit risk are you taking these days?
You know, we're moving our credit risk a bit higher quality. I mean, you don't have to reach for yield anymore. And I think that's one of the things that you can't be missed. Like, when's the last time we've been able to learn four and a half percent on tenure treasury and if you're throw in another hundred basis points, so so for credit five and a half percent, that's
pretty good. And you're seeing fixed annuity buyers come in the market because they like that print insurance companies, you know, we you know, as a total return investor maybe five percent thirty years, you know, a bit scary at times, but an insurance company, they loving that environment.
Interesting, So that's kind of the place to be. I think people want to talk to these bodcasts now, well.
Yeah, they have no right for years. Is it a total return man your life or you just clipped the cooper.
We're more we're totally more total return approach. You know, you know, we're benchmark against the AG but it's a bit of AG aware and looking for a fair amount of access.
Did you have v body at Boston University?
I was not fortunate enough to take one of his classes, but I had obviously had to read his book.
I mean, Paul, you know this has got to be a Duke equivalent.
Yeah, if you go academics from BU to I mean you have to switch from Cornwalls, which is the bar for BU, and you.
Got to go up to Marianne's. Okay, all right, I mean that's a whole of a shift in Boston. It's one of my little part.
I mean, Boston College in Boston University, they're just two separate worlds, aren't.
They They are.
I mean it's teach pub versus Marianne's after a hockey game all the day, all day long.
Yeah, I mean I don't think people understand like Duke and in the UNC, how far are a part of They like.
Literally about a mile.
Yeah, it's a little a mile, and they integrate like when you the student sections the lines of blurred.
Yeah.
Absolutely, we'll have to see.
Thank you for coming in. We got massive breaking news today that we've got to run to. Can you I hope you can come back again when it's not nuts.
Jeffrey given had a developed.
Market fixing income and fixed income portfolio manager, a manual life of Boston. So here's what we're going to do. Hugely anticipate. I've got a lot of emails on this is Ira coming on today.
Yeah, we're gonna do the World Cup, but.
We've got to do the inflation report first, and all of his wonderful fixed income work as well. Ira, go phobosy on me here and tell me what matters within the four characteristics of the curve right now, discuss the premium, the fancy stuff you guys work in every day.
Yes, so if you're talking about term premium, you know basically the risk premium that you need to hold in order to or get the extra yield you need in order to hold a bond for the long term. You know, that's actually been very stable for five years out.
The thirty years.
Over the last couple of months, it's the two year really that's been moving around quite a lot. And initially that was because inflation expectations jumped much higher, and now it's really because the policy rate is now expected maybe to be increased, So basically the Fed hiking interest rates. So that's where you get two year yields up above four percent and the yield curve flattening a little bit.
I think that's probably about done.
We put out a note just this morning noting that we thought the two year yield was fully priced for the realistic outcomes for the policy and for the FED, and a big reason for that was this number today. Because this number, this four point two percent year on year CPI print, is price by the market to be the high print of this cycle. So so I think that's very important because if inflation starts to come down, then two year yield's good stable.
I you agree with that.
I don't mean to be rude here, but this is like saying Senegal is going to be France. Do you that you believe four point two percent the peak? It probably? It probably is now obviously there's a lot of risk
in that. But but but based on where the where the oil futures curve is pricing based on the fact that you you get a level adjustment, right, So we have to be careful because I think a lot of times people say, oh, there's still a lot of inflation, because you know, bread prices are you know, five dollars a you know a bag or whatever, but but the issue is is that that a jump in UH in prices to a new level doesn't mean that you're going to get high a bigger change in the future, right.
It just means that the level is high of individual prices, But it doesn't mean that that you're going to have persistent inflation and persistently increasing prices even if prices never go down, right. I think that's it's a kind of one of the observational fallacies that a lot of people, you know, wind up having because they'll say, oh, you know, gas prices are still four dollars a gallon.
Yeah, but they're still at four. They're not going to five. Right, That's the I think one of the issues that people don't don't see. It's changed versus level. So yeah, I think that four point two percent probably is the high now.
Of course, if we continue to run at three percent, which is something that the market's also priced for over the next year or so, you know, obviously it's going to be difficult for the Federal Reserve to decrease interest rates if you're still well above their targeted inflation level.
We haven't been, as some quoted, we haven't been in two percent inflation and like forever, where did this two percent number go?
Can we kick this to the curb?
Well, I actually think that it was kind a little bit of a mistake to have any kind of hard two percent number, right, So Paul, you know, you know, we think back in the nineteen nineties, we were running a bit above that, right, PC deflator was running around two point three two point five percent. Things seemed fine, right, because wages were growing faster than that and we had
a decent, decent economic activity. You know, I think the Fed lost a little bit of flexibility and how they approach their inflation target by by you know, having a hard two percent target. And you know, quite frankly, that is something Kevin Moorsh would like to would like to revisit.
So as he comes in next week and to his first meeting as the FOMC chair, you know, he'll need to He'll need to try to figure out with his colleagues, like, Hey, should we actually have this hard two percent number or should we think about it more as in is it two point three percent two point five percent and stable?
Right?
That that's really probably more important in my view to the health of the economy is give certainty to how quickly prices are going to grow, and the economy will figure it out around that, which it always has done.
Across America, Ira Jersey, with us driving all of Bloomberg intelligence fixed income that covers definitive at credit squeeze years ago, Ira, help us here off your remit with the complexity of the fixed income transactions of the technology. Bro Paul and I learned that if we see the word mezzaning, circle it in the perspectives. This is back folks when there was pencil and paper. We've gone way beyond mezzaning. Do you see a complexity and a frenzy like two thousand and six.
It's not quite as bad, but there are people who were you know, I think, I think when you go back to that period of time, remember we spent five years with the Fed fundrate at one percent.
Interest rates were relatively low and stable.
And you had a lot of financial engineering and a lot of new products that were trying to be used for yield enhancement purposes. I actually think, and I wrote about this actually when I was at.
Credits a long time ago.
Was one of the reasons why the markets created all of these you know, CDOs and all of the triple A tranches of different fixed income products was really because the Federal Reserve didn't increase the money supply quickly enough. And I know a lot of you know, academic economists don't agree with me with this, but the fact this is that money demand was going very quickly during that
period of time. And when money demand is outstripping money supply, then obviously the market will create new kinds of money, and then of course, once that doesn't become money, you wind up putting on the financial crisis. I think in today's environment, we have plenty of money out there. There's some funding market needs that need to be addressed and have been addressed by the Fed. But otherwise, no, we don't see the same kind of you know, gearing that we had back then.
Nobody cares, Okay, iira.
What they care about is two thirds of America doesn't care about the World Cup. I guess a lot of them do care about the World Cup. The world's coming to America for the World Cup. And I saw on stub ub today all sorts of games with new ticket issueance. How bad has FEFA screwed up the tickets nationwide?
Yeah? I think they've made some you know, pretty big mistakes.
I mean they were trying to maximize I think their their profits by you know, leaking out leaking out tickets. But then you know, that became a problem for the resellers and the like. There's a lot of people that I've talked to in Europe, a lot of my friends from when I was in graduate school and the like, who are like, you know, tickets are crazy expensive.
How are we going to go?
Like when you know, when we went to Russia where we went to cutter, like, yeah, there were some tickets that were expensive, but we were able to get into a match for you.
Know, one hundred euros or whatever.
And so these were eye popping kind of prices for a lot of people, especially when you have to consider you have to travel over you know, over an ocean, and then you have all of the relatively high priced accommodations in the United States compared to other places where the World's Cup has been held over the last twenty years or so, So there is a big sticker shock.
So I'm a little bit concerned that you won't get the kind of environment that where you have a sellout crowd, or you'll have a lot of a lot of maybe domestic people going to games instead of people from these countries to create a great stadium environment.
So I'm really interested to see how that's going to work.
We'll have to see our jersey. Thank you so much. Driving all the fixed incoment, Bloomberg Intelligence is Surveillance World Cup corresponded.
Stay with us.
More from Bloomberg Surveillance coming up after this.
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Joining Center Studio usually in San Francisco.
Edward Lovelow driving all of our technology coverage. Open question, How do you study SpaceX this morning?
I study it as a pitch on the economic of a satellite of great scale, that is a data center. So in a satellite, you have the body, and right now, the body in any given satellite is a probe of some kind. It creates data intents about down to Earth. What SpaceX is pitching is a story where there are thousands and thousands of satellites and in the body of that satellite with massive soda arraisin reads is a server.
You're in Charlotte, sil Virginia and your lecture in CFA Institute on this, what's your ex access to the hopes and dreams of mister Musk? Is it three years?
Is it thirty years?
This is why it's worth us discussing this on air right now Wednesday morning for an IPO that will price tomorrow and trade Friday, because actually something has been happening since Sunday night. Bankers around the country have been pitching this idea in real time, and based on our reporting, the institutional investors' long only asset managers are placing orders for ten billion dollars of shares big blocks because they believe in the economics of what Elon Musk is pitching
on the data center side. In other words, I'm saying the road shows worked. Based on our reporting Sunday night, they had a certain number of orders. By Wednesday morning they had many more, and thus we arrived to a place where they're oversubscribed. By the way that the math on a space based data centers is the same as a day central on Earth. It's a dollar per token. How many dollars it takes to generate a token or a dollar per killer? What the dollar to generate a killer?
What worth of compute which is measured in the electrical draw It's exactly the same. I know, Paul, I.
See it in your face. It hasn't been done.
When did they expect to deploy some of this technology?
So this is why I say this is a live situation. The roadshow has meaning. In the prospectus, they very clearly outlined that they expected to put an orbital data center in place twenty twenty eight into twenty twenty nine. The bankers and SpaceX's representatives have been telling very important investors ahead of the IPO that they actually might pull that forward a little bit and do a demo, a test,
a pilot in twenty twenty seven. But given that three days ago we saw the design of the thing for the first time, and how many times have you rolled your eyes at me or caution me on Elon Musk stating a date and then see where we actually land. So all of that gets taken into account. But he is also in the boilerplate risk factors of the document, you know, So that's how I view it.
Ages has Elon been on the road pitching this person.
Do we know?
You know, I don't have any reporting or evidence that he has done much beyond the conversation he had with Jamie Diamond. Brett Johnson is SpaceX's CFO. He's much less known. He's basically space x is only ever CFO, and he is going to preside over the finance org that does the biggest IPO in history, much more engaged directly with the bankers, the important shareholders. You will note that Ela Musk, I don't know. I see the Elizabeth Warre and headlines
on the SEC. I don't really have any reporting on that, but that's fine. I would say Ela Musk has continued to post on X quite often.
So there's in this period two questions.
Let's start with this same blood low with this folks the high ground on technology. Do you just assume SpaceX and Tesla made at some point?
Yes, I mean, well, I don't assume the market assumes that in the end SpaceX and Tesla.
Still this drives and I think.
Of George Noble definitive Fidelity Overseas and many many other critics of all does he think the ed loud Low world is just you know, yeah, it's going to hell on the desk, Kerra Carlson, Bloomberg News. Yes, Tesla has fifty nine robotaxis in three Texas cities, and yet people talking to you say this is the second coming of whatever. Yeah, I mean that's the discontinuous nature of the ed blood low world.
Yeah, just discussed that.
So the thesis is that if Tesla gets there on the end where they have fleets of thousands and thousands of robotaxis, in other words, a Tesla vehicle that has no human driver, it drives itself. There is an element in that of onboard compute. The cars have computers on them which helps them perceive the world around them. But this is still AI where you are asking an underlying algorithm AO model to do something that still requires some
kind of mathematics going on in data center. So the link is if SpaceX is going to do thousands of satellites and orbits that are data centers and they are focused on what we call inference running the AI model, Tesla becomes the first big customer of that. Gotcha, it is Elon having a negotiation with Elon, how.
Is a robotaxi going to pick somebody up a terminal one at JFK.
Good question.
How they've done it at other airports is to have asignated pickup areas.
Very simples jf K. Yeah, you know Kansas City gorgeous new airport. Frankly, Manila has a gorgeous new airport. Can I give you a case study? SFO?
Right, so WEIMO off services SFO. Dear listener, if you know what's you on YouTube, I'm waving my fingers in the air in Asterisk operates at SFO. You have to go out the terminal, up the escalator, onto the air train change stop, go on another stop, walk five hundred feet and then you can get picked up by a WEIMO SFO. So like that's the reality of it.
What's going to happen Thursday? What's your I mean?
I don't want to pinion down if you're wrong. We understand that I'm wrong all the time.
Well, look, do you what's your best guess that's going to happen?
Thursday Friday, Kyle Porter and I reported that SpaceX had had valued this and priced this IPO early at one point seven seven trillion. A Musk replied on X saying false. In the end, when all the documents came out. It was one point seven to seven tri billion and one hundred and thirty five dollars per share price, so we got that right. However, because this is a typical and unusual, they priced ahead of the road show. People don't know
what will happen. There is every legal, mechanical, and psychological chance that the price goes way up. You know that they price it higher. That we're talking about a company in excess of two trillion. How it trades at the Friday whenever that gets going, I'm not idea. It's academic, isn't it. It doesn't matter, But right now the state of player is so clear. This is a massively oversubscribed IPO and people want to participate in it.
How about retail? I think they allocata initially maybe thirty thirty. So how's that playing out?
There's an outstanding question, which is indirectly. Musk has promised Tesla's very loyal, quite broad retail shareholder base that they would get some kind of access to this IPO, and that's not been codified, no mechanism for that, so I'd be interested in that, you know. He Musk has talked about rewarding loyalty in that sense. It'd be interesting to see how those TESTA shareholders react if they weren't able to participate. Remember, the institutional book closes four pm today.
But all these different platforms offering the retail trade that I think that carries on till Thursday night.
I didn't know that.
Yeah today, yeah, yeah, all right, I'll get to get my order in.
You're looking at me with great skepticism. But that's healthy, Like how healthy is that?
That's good?
Yep, all right, I'm on it.
I'll take my index allocation.
That's how we roll. My love love great, Thank you, thank you, thank you for so much. Stay with us.
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Odetta Kushi joins US now Deputy Chief Economists, First American out of Northeastern out of Saint John Fisher College, Paul, Like you know, they open the other the PGA RA at the Oak Kill up in Rochester.
The other year Saint John Fisher. I mean the kids just roll out of bed, is that right? And they they do eighteen holes at hops, very good, that's the way they roll. It's Saint John Fisher a college.
Odetta, what do you expect to see in the CPA report?
What is the distinction for you?
What I'm really looking for is whether we're seeing inflation broadening across categories. The consensus is that we'll have a print above four percent. Consider that just a year ago the inflation was with a two handle, and so the question really is are we seeing it broaden outside of just the energy sector into goods and services?
And that would really be the concern from the fence perspective.
I mean, off George Bory Paul Core CPI two point ninety percent up from two point eight percent.
Can you imagine a three handle on core?
Boy, that's not what the market's looking for, Odetta. If we do, in fact see higher core inflation, where do you think it's coming from? Because a lot of folks definitely feel it when they go to the gas station to fill up the tank of gas. They fill it at the shopping center when they go to buy groceries. Where is inflation most problematic for you.
Well, you know, as a real estate economist, we see that the higher gas prices is in facting construction costs. We're seeing it flow through to diesel prices obviously, which is which is very important for construction and higher and certainly burdens them to breaking ground on more homes.
So that's certainly one area that we're monitoring.
Where are you seeing in your business here in real estate? I mean we have mortgage rates, boy, you know, back up to six and a half percent here, and we just got a housing number yesterday, you know, still that four handle four million used homes.
It seems tough for.
The real estate business.
It's been a challenging year, though I will see a better year than last year. Mortgage rates while they've hit about six and a half percent, mortgage rates are still lower than a year ago. Inventory is still a bit higher than it was a year ago, so that's helping move transactions in the right direction, albeit very slowly. But we did start the year with a rate of six percent and now we've moved up to six and a half so certainly that slowed the momentum.
So what's the inflation series you lean on? I mean, is it trim this, trim that, Cleveland, the eighteen other flavors we've got. What does a denkush you believe in?
You know, I'm classic look at the core inflation, and then what I tend to do is break it out into its main components, and I track core goods inflation, core services inflation, and then I tend to break out shelter on its own.
Shelter inflation makes up.
Forty percent of core, and so we like to see what's happening with shelter and the good news there is that you know, that tends to trail what's happening with rents on new leases, and we know that we continue to see acceleration in new leases, So that should drag overall shelter inflation lower later this year. I think that's a tailwind to getting inflation back down.
That's really important. Is that zeitgeist in the market right now? This idea of oeer and you know, eight other ways of calculating real estate disinflation.
Is that in the zeitgeist right now? Or is that a surprise to come?
I think I think it's pretty well understood that shelter inflation should continue to drag overall inflation lower. I think all eyes right now are certainly on the energy sector and whether we start to see those higher oil prices flow into other portions of our of our inflation back.
Get affordability in housing here? Is there a solution out there? Is it just build more houses?
I do think that the supply side should be getting the attention here, because what happens if you juice up the demand side of the equation in a supply and strain market is you just start to see house prices go up. And so I think building more homes, making it less burdensome, less costly to build new homes is the solution.
Thank you so much. The new slow folks this morning is just killing me. O Data Cushion, Thank you so much for joining us.
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