Markets Price in Trump Policies - podcast episode cover

Markets Price in Trump Policies

Nov 18, 202432 min
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Watch Tom and Paul LIVE every day on YouTube: http://bit.ly/3vTiACF.
Bloomberg Surveillance hosted by Tom Keene and Paul SweeneyNovember 18th, 2024
What would YOU like to hear about on Bloomberg? Help make shows like ours even better by taking our Bloomberg audience survey. (https://bit.ly/4eIFhe5)
Featuring:

  • Stephanie Roth, Chief Economist at Wolfe Research, on tax cuts, the Fed's interest rate path, and animal spirits
  • Amanda Rebello, Head of Xtrackers Sales, US Onshore at DWS Group, discusses AI trades with Nvidia set to report this Wednesday
  • Henrietta Treyz, Managing Partner at Veda Partners, talks about President-elect Trump filling out his cabinet and the race for Treasury Secretary
  • David Gura, host of the Bloomberg "Big Take" podcast, on the G20 Summit from Brazil

See omnystudio.com/listener for privacy information.

Transcript

Speaker 1

Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays at seven am Eastern on Apple car Player, Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

Joining us right now with the worst job on Wall Street seventy row with this chief economist at Wolf Research. Uh well, I got to do the flash first. Excuse me, I'd.

Speaker 4

Said this contract it is, and I you know, we.

Speaker 3

Covered equities, but we didn't do bonds and currencies with a better day to check than I could do with our interactive brokers. Bloomberg Business Flash, el Matale.

Speaker 5

You got it.

Speaker 6

And we've got futures mixed. Nazac Future is actually leading the games right now, up about three tens of percent sixty eight points. A big part of that Tesla shares. They're up about six percent sources. A president like Donald Trump seemed looking to push the development of fully self driving vehicles. That's the reason for that. Now we go to down futures little change down about forty one points.

We have SMP futures little changed, up about four We have the two year yield at four point two nine percent. That's little change they yield on the ten year full point four six percent, and that's up about one basis point to currency is the Bloomberg Dollars Spot Index right now down about a tenth of a percent. We have

the Japanese yenweeker, euro British pound stronger. We have Bitcoin up about seven tens of percent around eighty nine thousand, recovering from that biggest two day retreat since the US vote. Shares of Nvidia falling down two percent. That's following that report over its Blackwell chips. It's led to concerns about delays. And finally another company making news that would be Spirit Airlines filed for bankruptcy in New York, listing assets and

liabilities between one billion and ten billion dollars. That is your Bloomberg Business Flash, Tom and Paul Lisa, thanks so much.

Speaker 3

Avic sixteen point five seven. Sephany Ross with us with Wolf sefas O excited because you're in the process now of putting together your year ahead view at Wolf Research, to be published December ish, maybe or before or after around the jobs report of December sixth. I believe it is. How do you do that, knowing the uncertainty of our politics, knowing the uncertainty of our economy, do you rewrite it in January?

Speaker 7

One important thing to think about is a lot of what the policies that Trump might put in place are going to be relative or important for twenty twenty six. So twenty twenty five, in a way, it's going to be about animal spirits, and it's going to be about immigration to some extent, but that's going to be the bulk of what we see for twenty twenty five, which

for US is actually a decent economy. An immigration, you know, it's probably not going to have as big an impact as many thing from an inflation perspective, because the labor market's now back in better balance, so we don't necessarily need the influx of people the way we did two years ago. Now, when we're talking about twenty twenty six, then it becomes all about tariffs and the uncertainty that creates. But this is probably not a twenty twenty five story.

Speaker 4

How about the deficit is that it seems like a story that's every year. So and you know, I've been seeing some numbers. We were just talking to someone earlier as talking about, you know, the concrease the deficit by trillions of dollars? Are you how concerned are you, if at all, about that?

Speaker 7

Sure Trump has thrown out eleven trillion dollars worth of tax cuts. Is he gonna get that all done? No, So we're looking for, you know, yes, a tax cut that could be a couple trillion dollars, something like a net of three. But that's not that different from what Harris was proposing. So the market, the bond market should be okay with that. And by the way, we're looking

for something that's gonna extend TCJA. And then beyond that, we're forecasting about five hundred billion dollars of additional net tax increases, which is tax cuts, which is really not that impact.

Speaker 3

I mentioned December. I think it's six's it's the jobs report. Do you look at the negative statistic with revisions last time? Is truly hurricane induced or is there more going on right now in the labor economy.

Speaker 7

It's very likely hurricane and so we're going to learn a lot more about that in state when we get state employment tomorrow at ten am.

Speaker 3

That's one of those who stop the show, take no date employment.

Speaker 7

So this is this is going to be the most important data point from an economic perspective this week.

Speaker 3

What are you doing tomorrow at ten am? Sweet and Alex want to.

Speaker 4

Know state unemployment? So what do we learn from that kind of data?

Speaker 7

So we're going to get this helped us in a big way look at Texas after Beryl because we got a sense of the the extent of the hurricane impact on the data and then we could assume, well, you get that back the next month. And this is gonna be the same thing. We're going to look at Florida most importantly to see to what extent did Florida drag down the overall payrols and if it was significant, then we know we should be able to add that back.

Speaker 3

Okay, so this is state reports. What do they go into that we normally report.

Speaker 7

So what they're going to it's it's it's bls, it's it's just telling you, basically what happened from a state perspective from employment the last week ago, last month, in the last month, so from the last payroll reading we got that twelve number, which was terrible.

Speaker 3

You're gonna look at North Carolina exactly.

Speaker 7

We're gonna look at the Carolina. We're gonna look at Florida, Georgia, and if we see a notable decline, then we can know that that's probably hurricane related and the next month you'll get paid back in a positive way.

Speaker 4

How's the consumer out there? From your perspective, we had some retail sales recently. How do you think about that?

Speaker 7

So the retail sales print was suit was very funky, so it was it was negative on core, but then when you dig into it, you had pretty big revisions for the month prior. So we when we take a three month average, you're looking at one point two nine percent month on month, which is annualized about three and a half percent. Not great, but not terrible. And we have to kind of look at it into perspective. It's probably you didn't have an incredibly strong September and incredibly

week October. You probably have to think of some sort of average between the two, and it was likely related to a stronger a better weather forecast or betther sort of seasonably strong weather in terms of September that boosted the print and one reason why we got the significant positive revisions in September. You also had an early back to school season so the combination of these things lifted September and dragged October because you've got a bit of a payback from that.

Speaker 3

What's your real GDP? A nominal GDP call twelve months forward?

Speaker 7

Twelve months forward, we're looking for something like two and a half percent real GDP, solid solid GDP and something inflation that's two point two fourish. Yeah, two point four is so something almost five percent in terms of nominal.

Speaker 3

So how do they react to that at the FED? I mean, that's that's solid solid.

Speaker 7

It's complicated for the FED, right because they don't want to forecast any of the fiscal stuff, so they're going to probably want to cut a couple more times. They told us that what they really should be doing is saying we want to cut to something like four percent, and then we're going to see where the economy is. Because that's that's the message that we're getting from them.

They say they're data dependent, but they continue to want to cut even though the data has been stronger and inflation a little bit stickier.

Speaker 3

So quickly, here do you use suggests that the December meeting December eighteen and then over into the next meeting. I can't believe I'm saying twenty twenty five, I'm such a fossil January twenty nine. Those two meetings give them still a lot of wiggle room to cut.

Speaker 7

I think they have wiggle room to cut at one of the next two, probably not as both.

Speaker 3

It's as close as I get the fed chat. That's good, I do.

Speaker 7

Okay, yeah right, They'll probably want to cut it at one of the two and then cut it some sort of quarterly cadence until the middle part of next year.

Speaker 3

This is like talking to Henrie out a trace. I didn't know anything about the state report tomorrow? Did you not barely do the lista? Did you keep it from us?

Speaker 6

Yes?

Speaker 3

Brilliant, Stephanie. We're a huge value had there from Woolf Research.

Speaker 2

You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live weekday afternoons from seven to ten am. Easter Listen on Apple car Play and Android Auto with a bloom Business or want us live on YouTube.

Speaker 3

The last time she was with us, we've got a huge response. I think it's the mathewness maths. That's how they say they do they do. It's different equations for sort of different equations. Amanda Robello joins us. Now she's a DWS and before we get to all this fancy mumble jumbo in the quintuple leveraged artificial intelligence big data ETF, are you kidding me? Just what are your thoughts on the magnitude of the money in the bitcoin ETFs? I mean, if I if I talk to somebody Blackrock, I get

a song and dance. What do you think at DWS of this moment?

Speaker 8

I think it's really interesting. We have laun judicial assets etcs in our European platform. We definitely think that there is a place for them. But I think that one thing that's important, not just with Bitcoin, but with all exposures that can be wrapped in an ETF. Do you understand the underlying right? And so I think that at the end of the day, this is an access vehicle.

Speaker 3

But Mathe, we just came back from the Boston FED.

Speaker 1

We had the number one payments guy in America, Emeritis Illinois professor Khan say, bitcoin is basically the new beanie babies? Do you know what a beanie Okay, okay, okay, that's the where's the underlying in bitcoin?

Speaker 3

Yeah? Or is it a beanie baby? Is Professor kanss I.

Speaker 8

Think I completely understand what Professor Khan is saying. We always think about you know, in your CFA textbook, you're always thinking about valuation of an asset, But how do we value bitcoin?

Speaker 7

Right?

Speaker 8

So, I think you know, at the end of the day there is some degree of speculation which is driving a lot of the volumes at the end of the day, probably more more.

Speaker 4

Rather than less.

Speaker 8

So that's definitely something I think all investors need to be aware of.

Speaker 4

On the technology front, where at DWUS heard you've seeing the flows. Is it still AI?

Speaker 8

It is still AI. So we've launched a number of different technology focused ets, so we have cybersecurity semiconductors. We also have US national critical technologies, but XAI x is the one that we're seeing flows going in on the daily basis on our US.

Speaker 4

Site AI x XAI.

Speaker 8

We also have a European version as well. It's the largest artificial intelligence ETF in the world as of last Friday.

Speaker 4

Cybersecurity, Lisa, here's the here's the ticker for you for the cybersecurity ETF PSWD password. How cool is that? How that so cybersecurity in addition to it, before there was an AI. I always told my kids cybersecurity that's like the new plastics. It's going to be. They're going to be spending money on cybersecurity forever, right, So is that What are you seeing in that side of the text trade?

Speaker 8

Cybersecurity? We've seen it become much more important. I think beforehand, a lot of people were thinking about it in the earlier days of cybersecurity, you know, as a theme, that it was more of a consume kind of topic. But I think, you know, with the Russia Ukraine War, a lot of people have now seen that cybersecurity is really a defense topic, much more than it has been in the past. We also know about you know, hackers in different geographies. You know, this is their attempt at warfare.

Basically it's easier to build or quicker to build than you know, building an army or a navy. Also different spends which are required as well. So I think everyone is understanding now that cybersecurity is important in a different dimension than just your McAfee or you're you know, having a personal.

Speaker 3

VPM, a meta rebella with a sexpert on ETFs. We have built tunas today as well. Yeah, it's just too much. I got goosebumps DWS group here. I had a white paper thirty years ago that tried to model out not twenty to one hedge fund blow it up leverage, but we're non linearly from one to one out to a little bit of leverage, out to a little bit more leverage.

Do you run into problem whre's fidelities propaganda for professional investors, Leverage gtfs are useful in statistical arbitrage, short term technical strategies, et cetera. Most people are buying them just a goose to return. Where's the tip point for you? And where leverage is a really tough game to win it.

Speaker 8

Yeah, the thing about the leverage gtfs is that it's not you know, two times on a long term basis or three times on a long term basis.

Speaker 3

People need to understand this.

Speaker 8

Is a volatility resetting strategy, be it in an ETF and ETN instructured products. So I think when we start to see volatility increasing quite significantly, we're not at the highs of the market, but we are kind of teetering upwards. Then you start to see that the payoff doesn't work in the way that a lot of the investors have.

Speaker 3

A ratio where that payoff doesn't work as a two to one, three to one the quintupple, tws X track or tech fund.

Speaker 8

We do not, and we've decided we've made a conscious decision to not be in the levered space here in the US.

Speaker 3

Oh no, I offer the triple.

Speaker 4

Why is that? I mean, it seems to be popular products, it would be, but I think.

Speaker 8

That you know, there are some fantastic you know, competitor peers that we have in the market, like who already owned that space, So we don't need to be there.

Speaker 4

All right, The fetch cutting interest rates even though the bond yields are going higher. I don't know how that all works. What do you guys deal from the ETF front to take advantage of a feeder reserve that peers should be on a pretty significant path of grade cutting.

Speaker 8

Yeah, so I think that you know, for the past couple of years or y're in a bit, cash has yielded enough and it's you know, effectively risk free, that rotating into cash could have made sense all of us. You know, when we think about income requirements within portfolios. You know, now five became the new normal, little bit, and so we need to think about how we're still going to generate that five So we like international dividends

a lot. HF is our international high dividend strategy. We're known very much for international equities more broad just as a Frankfurt headquartered entity, but then that one has like

kind of around a five percent yield on average. Then we also think that international real estate can make sense as well, so houses the ticker and rates we always know, yes HAUC exactly, and then we usually feel that rates, you know, are income generator, same as infrastructure securities as well, So if you want to think about these as well as a way to generate kind of four or five percent yield, that makes sense. On the fixed income side,

we really like high yield at the moment. Actually there's more of a quality component than there has been historically. So default rates have pretty much halved in the last eighteen months, so much stronger, much more stable than historically. But then also you can now slice and dice high yield much more than you could do before. So thinking about the higher credit ratings within high yield, things like

BHYB which is our double B single B exponentials. Also thinking about hy DOWN, which is our low beta high yield product, which is kind of better than a fallen Angels product because you're looking at the market already pricing in better credit quality with yield rather than waiting for the credit rating agencies to then make that call.

Speaker 4

Fascinating stuff. I mean Torston Slock from Apollos out with this weekend saying, hey, interest rates are higher for longer here, So the top of the high yield space is probably okay, but the lower end, yeah, probably at risk. We use calling on interest coverage and all those types of things. Exactly are you seeing that in your your investors? Do they want to take that lower end.

Speaker 8

Risk or now they're not brave enough yet. And it's great to hear from torlst In, one of our former dear colleagues. You know, we think that really segmenting how yield is making sense, that kind of crossover space is where you need to be. But I think that in certain sectors they're still uncertainty in terms of possibility of repaying debt, So stay away from the finite.

Speaker 3

Amanda think Amanda Rabella with this head of Extracker Sales DWS group.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Park Cast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven thirty.

Speaker 3

Henrietta Trees she's with Beda Partners, and I'm lucky that she joins us right now and informs us about the great debate. Henrietta, I see different threads here. But can the new Senate Majority leader excuse me, yes, the Senate Majority Leader Thuon of the Dakotas, the President Leader McConnell of the Kentuckys, or whoever can they delay, distress, distract the march president elect Trump wants with his appointees.

Speaker 7

They can.

Speaker 5

I think that there is a real undercurrent of focus on both the House and set it side around President electro seriousness about some of the nominees that he has announced so far, and so there is this sort of wariness that the President elect might do things that have not been done before in American history, such as sort of tell the House and Senate to go on recess so that he can nominate.

Speaker 3

Can we do that?

Speaker 5

There is a clause in the Constitution that allows the president elect to do that, I think it would be extraordinarily explosive. And I think what I state to clients is basically the autonomy that senators feel, the seniority they feel is having six year terms versus four year terms is a very real thing. You don't want to get between them and their incredible sense of importance in DC.

Speaker 3

To Republicans, and particularly Republicans in name only, with that six year tenure coming in, do they look at the president elect is lame duck.

Speaker 5

No?

Speaker 3

I don't think so.

Speaker 5

I think, especially because there's going to be so many freshmen senators, not just the turnover from the election, but all the senators that I expect the president elected tap to go into the administration. There could be as many as nine freshman senators. And it's worth bearing in mind that over seventy five percent of the House has only ever had Donald Trump as their Republican president. So there is this very real deference. Certainly it's held so far.

It's only been two weeks, of course, but this very real deference. And I'd add on just one more layer here that the president is so much more popular than the down ballot Republicans. In some of these states, there were as many as forty seven thousand Republican voters who went in and pulled a lever for Trump and then left the ballot box. They did not vote Republican down

the ticket. So a lot of those Republican members from specific swing states need to be deferential to Trump because that's what their voters want them to be.

Speaker 4

So in effect, Henriette, is there in fact a Senate opportunity to challenge some of these Trump appointees or they de facto like the Matt Gates or the world. Are they going to happen?

Speaker 5

No, I don't think they're going to happen. I think that the Senate is going to see itself as a temper of some of Trump's more aggressive instincts. So, for example, there's a very real effort right now from the Senate Republicans to see the ethics report on Matt Gates, which has allegations of drug use or sexual abuse, things like that.

They want to know exactly what the Ethics Committee found, and so while we might not see that released into the public, they do want to see it internally as senators, and they are going to pull rank to try to get access to that.

Speaker 4

I guess the next pick of note, particularly for Global Wall Street, is a Treasury secretary, and there's I guess some a little bit of confusion there about where the camp or the Trump administration, the Trump camp, what they'd like to see. What do you think is going to happen there?

Speaker 5

Well, I think Scott Besset has been the leader for the last couple months. I think that's probably still the case, although I do know that the Trump transition team has been trying to audition additional CEOs from Wall Street, from Corporate America to try to get somebody with staff that they can sort of plug and play right into the agency themselves. That component wanted to have a lot of

staff to bring with is a really big deal. I'm really more interested in Bob Leiinthheiser and where he might go. I don't expect that to be a Treasury pick, but I do think that he'll be sort of a roving czar, which is something that we've seen the Trump transition team already attach onto as a good policy idea or governing idea.

So seeing where Bob Leidheiser land, I think is probably the most important thing, particularly because he's so competent and whatever he wants done on the tirefront is I think what we're going to see.

Speaker 3

And to get back to the recess issue, which I'm assuming this is like immediate, it's like the now. Can one scenario be the Senate says we're not going to recess, but then the House votes to recess, and that gives a president elect a window to put Thune in his place? Do I have that right? Yeah?

Speaker 5

I think that's roughly correct. I mean, as I said, we've never seen this done before. But if there's a disagreement between the House and the Senate, the president has the authority to step in and say, y'all can't plain slay together. I'm going to disband you for a period of time, and so long as it's more than ten days, then he can start nominating recess appointments and those people will be in for a specific period of time, probably like two years before the next turnover and the next

Congress starts. But that's the dynamic that they would try. The disruption associated with that. I mean, ten days is a really long time for your first one hundred days agenda to just disband the House and Senate. That means, you know, first and foremost, we're going to have the debt ceiling that's due January one in terms of the suspension expiring, so that clock is going to be ticking.

We'll have other cabinet official appointments that they'll want to confirm, and then obviously the tax bill that you need to get to writing and will not be able to do a budget, which is due the first Monday in February. There's a lot of stuff to be done. In ten days is a very.

Speaker 3

Long time, and paul I saw that there's like four thousand positions to fill in eight hundred one thoy or twelve hundred of them involved the president working with the legislative branch. It's not like forty two people, right exactly.

Speaker 4

That's the US government. So, Henrietta, between now and inauguration day, what are some of the key things you're looking for, the mileposts that you're looking at that we should be focused on.

Speaker 5

I am watching the Senate Finance Committee. What we're expecting there is for Mike Crapo, the incoming chair of the set of Finance Committee, and who I expect will be the Budget Committee chair. Lindsay Graham. They need to huddle and get together to figure out what the scope of the tax bill is going to be, and therefore what the magnitude of deficit increases need to be. And those

two gentlemen need to work together. Those committees have to work together because in order for the tax bill to pass late next year, you have to have the budget first. So they effectively need to know the parameters of the tax bill right now. And so that is the process that is underway. They are going to be working groups formed to break out energy tax policy, international tax policy, et cetera. And then they'll get with Lindsay Graham and say,

this is the appetitive deficit increase that we need. Can you get this through your committee? Suld know that information before January twentieth. The goal is to get some paper out to members by December.

Speaker 3

We'll bring a senator from South Carolina back probably had no idea for twenty one years he's been in the Senate, Senator Graham. Is he going to provide? Is he going to be deferential to the executive branch? Or is he going to be you know? Is President Trump says Republicans in name only? Is Senator Graham going to join other senators and say, no, you're not doing this to us. I don't think so.

Speaker 5

And indeed, the Senate Budget Committee has gotten less obstructionists, less rhino in the last couple of weeks since the election, even than it was before. Mitt Rodney, for example, is no longer going to be on the committee, Chuck Rastley's not going to be on the committee, and I think you're probably going to see some of the freshman senators who just won their races rise up to those ranks. So the deferential part or the part where you would stand up to the president in this realm, exists with

deficit increases. I'd say the most proprie arry piece of information in my brain is the understanding I have of what can get fifty one votes from the Senate Republican conference. I believe it will be the biggest reconciliation bill that we have ever passed in America, somewhere in the range of two to two and a half trillion dollars worth of deficit appetite.

Speaker 3

So in terms of that old school.

Speaker 5

Hey, Republicans are concerned about fiscal spending, that's not going to be the case next year. There's going to be massive deficit increases and we will know that number from Lindsay Graham with the Budget Committee votes, which is a very big deal.

Speaker 3

Well, can we agree we learn more from Henriette to race in seven minutes than all the weekend blathershin, Wow, Henrietta. That was a clinic Withveda Partners. This is the.

Speaker 2

Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal.

Speaker 3

Joining us now from Rio from the Copa Caabana Beach, and he's not at the Copa Cabana Palace. He's at some boutiki thing with a balcony, and you know, you know, it's the way rolls. David Gera joins us right now from the G twenty meetings. David, I have the recollection of a G twenty meeting in Pittsburgh. You didn't cover that because there wasn't a beach. There was a Pittsburgh G twenty meeting with President Obama years ago that had substance. Will this G twenty frolic have substance.

Speaker 9

Well, there's plenty on the agenda tom a lot of talk about climate and development financing and things that you'd find in any number of G twenty summits in the past. But the real action at this one is on the sidelines where these one on one meetings are happening among world leaders, and of course President Biden is here on the heels of his trip to Peru for the APEC Summit.

He's on this kind of swan song trip through South America, taking stock of what he's accomplished so far, but also reckoning with the fact as you know that his day a numbered as president. He's got fewer than two months left, and he's trying to offer some assurance to those other world leaders as they kind of look to each other and wonder about what the future is gonna bring.

Speaker 3

In the photo op, are they gonna align President Biden up under you for United States next to Vietnam? Or does he get does he stand in the front row? As President Trump would assist.

Speaker 9

Well, you're hitting on something really crucial here. We make fun of these photo ops, but so much goes into them about who's standing where and who's next to whom.

Speaker 3

At this one.

Speaker 9

There's an element of awkwardness because the G twenty includes not just US allies, but adversaries as well. The Russian President Vladimir Putin isn't here, Sergey Lavrov, his foreign minister is. And the way that they're getting around any awkwardness about President Biden's placement Visavi, mister Lavrov or any others is they're going to do this photo op at kind of a broader development conversation that's going to take place earlier. So it's not gonna have like a standard twenty leaders

next to each other. It's going to be a wider group of people who are invited to that photograph. So something different about this this summit as well, Paul.

Speaker 3

I've stood twenty feet, not even twenty fifteen feet from the IMF photo op, and you'd think it was like your high school photos.

Speaker 4

Right.

Speaker 3

Why do the football players have to you know, come forward exactly?

Speaker 4

Hey, David, to what extent, if any, does President like Trump loom over this G twenty.

Speaker 3

Huge?

Speaker 9

I mean, I don't know that everyone's talking about him in specific, but everybody's wondering what's going to happen.

Speaker 5

You know.

Speaker 9

Tom brings up that summit that took place in Pittsburgh at the tail end of President Obama's tenure in the White House. You know, when he was leaving and Donald Trump was coming in. There was a lot of uncertainty, a lot of questions among world leaders about what the next four years would hold. They didn't know how Donald Trump was going to lead, or what his relationship was going to be like with other countries or these multilateral institutions.

Something else that's different about this summit is people know what Donald Trump is like and how he governs. And so I was kind of counseled going into this summit by Ben Rhodes, who is an advisor to President Obama. Don't look at how they're thinking about their relationship with Donald Trump. They largely have that figured out, and it may be, you know, variation on a theme slightly different

than it was back in twenty sixteen. What's more interesting and more important is to look at their relationship to China. And so walking around here in Rio and Brazil, you see the influence that Brazil has on this country, on Latin America broadly, the inroads that China has made. We're seeing just a real shift in the winds here, and I think that you see that kind of in stark

relief as the summit gets under way. Paul, just the role that China's playing, the number of meetings that President She's expected to have with other world leaders, and how few relative to that President Biden's going to have.

Speaker 4

Interesting, So what is the extent there of the interaction between on the sidelines They were seeing some reporting between g and President Biden here.

Speaker 9

So they had a meeting over the weekend in Peru at that Apec summit, and it was a moment for them to talk for two hours. They hadn't spoken since April, and that was a telephone conversation. So widely agree this is the last time they're going to talk while Joe Biden's in the in the White House. And again it was a moment for President Biden to acknowledge the fact that the relationship is markedly better than the one that he inherited. They do talk with some frequency, even if

it's not regularly. The lines of communication are open between Washington and Beijing. But you know, I mentioned President She being here. You have a lot of new faces who are just trying to introduce themselves to other folks cure Starmer's here and that was the first meeting on his agenda. This morning was with President She and that and it Selda's revelatory. You haven't had a prime minister sitting down with the Chinese premiere since twenty eighteen when Teresa made it.

It so a reset of that relationship on that side as well.

Speaker 3

David Rio report, Please were you at the Boteca Savado last night? Neighborhood bar seat six? Or do you hold court at Belmont Copacabana Palace.

Speaker 9

Look, I've walked by the palace. I'm angling to get a Kaiperini there a little later today. But I will say the food has been extremely good, the seafood very fresh. There is octopus on the menu last night. I veiled myself of that. Oh and I mentioned that the kaiperini is the cachasa, the cane liquor involved in those extremely smooth. I enjoyed a beverage or two of my choice last night.

Speaker 3

Time. I'm on an island off Mexico a million years ago and they're playing Fleetwood Mac. I'm like, are you killing me? That's on American? Do they play Barry Manilo's Copa Cabana in Rio. Tell me they don't.

Speaker 9

I've heard some Tchuell Gilbertto, but not not Barry Manilo yet. I will lend an ear to it tonight. As you can see behind me, the famous Copa Cabana Beach music is playing constantly throughout the day. I've wandered a little bit around hope to get into the water. The sun rises at five am here, which is such a relief. I'm hoping to take take a pre surveillance dip tomorrow tom and I'll report back on that.

Speaker 3

There we go. David gerrow a team coverage from Coca Copa Cabana Beach Radio for those are Rio. For those of you on radio not seeing Rio, it is what a what a view? I mean, it makes me shot.

Speaker 4

I mean, you know, but I mean, he hasn't seen a ray of light, sunlight in his lifetime. I don't think the guy's got no color.

Speaker 3

He's just he's like Washington Nerd.

Speaker 4

Yeah, Washington Nerd.

Speaker 3

You know, you'll probably get in the water, Brooklyn. You know, maybe I'll take the tram up to the rock. And at least I.

Speaker 5

Have not.

Speaker 4

But I've always wanted.

Speaker 3

I've always wanted to go. I was scheduled once or twice to go and.

Speaker 4

You know, surveillance road trip.

Speaker 3

Yes, okay, so long ways away. I mean it's okay, it's like south yeah, and it's it's not.

Speaker 4

Eighty two degrees and sunny there today. I just kind of google, yeah, so they're good.

Speaker 3

Well, they're they're under the equator. Tell me right, this is how am well.

Speaker 4

They're going into their summer.

Speaker 3

I think, yeah, they're Yeah, it's a whole southern tin coverage David Girl on top of it.

Speaker 2

This is the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal

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